2023-24 NBA Pacific Division Preview: Who Conquers the Most Brutal Group?

Phoenix Face Shortest Odds in Wide Open Division

Thanks to a blockbuster deal in the offseason, the Phoenix Suns are again at the top of the NBA odds to win the Pacific Division this 2023-24. But at +155, they are shaky favorites at best, as there are no weak NBA teams here. The Sacramento Kings, for example, have the longest odds at +650 despite being the winners last season. Given the unpredictability, leaning on one team in this NBA Pacific Division preview is tough.

Suns Out, Wallets In

Pass. At +155 on the NBA odds, the sportsbook is already on the defense as Phoenix occupies the brunt of talks and headlines. But upon closer inspection of this supposed “superteam,” it has no depth and is a few injuries away from finishing last in the division. Outside of the team’s “Big 3” of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, Phoenix looks like a lottery team.

Sure, the Suns did unloading center DeAndre Ayton for more depth. Jusuf Nurkic is a serviceable albeit injury-prone center. Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon could be reliable spot starters but will mainly be scorers off the bench.

The Suns have hitched their wagons to the oft-absent Durant and Beal, who has played in just 58% of the regular season since returning from his Achilles injury. Beal has not played more than 60 games in the last four seasons.

If you’re going all in on the Suns, knock yourself out. But we’ve seen this movie before. It’s a remake of Durant going to Brooklyn to form a superteam with Kyrie Irving and James Harden. How did that movie end?

So Phoenix should be “fade city,” as we expect the Big 3 to not play more than 50% of the regular season together. Coached by Frank Vogel, Phoenix should still finish in the upper part of the NBA standings. But winning the NBA’s most brutal division is a tough bet.

The Kings of Cali: Can Sacramento Repeat?

At +650, Sacramento looks to be the team with the most valuable betting odds. This team did win the division last season, and history suggests it has a solid chance to do so. If we exclude the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 season, every team that has won the Pacific Division has repeated at least once since the NBA realigned in 2004-05.

Sacramento’s most considerable edge was its youth and health. The Kings lost the fewest man games last NBA season. Their top eight players, in terms of minutes, played at least 89% of the games last season. This team does not have injury-prone or high-maintenance superstars like its division rivals have.

Don’t just take this NBA Pacific Division preview’s touts. The Warriors, Lakers, and Clippers all have aging cores with superstar players who typically miss at least 25% of the season. And they have shorter odds: +350 for the Warriors and Lakers and +550 for the Clippers.

LeBron James of the Lakers is the league’s oldest player. His running mate, Anthony Davis, is infamously nicknamed “Day-to-Day-vis” due to his frequent absences. And the Clippers’ superstar duo of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are worse. Neither has played more than 57 games in a regular season.

With how close these teams are to each other, the winner may win by one game or via a tiebreaker. We don’t want to put our money on teams that will chronically sit out their best players to “save” them for the playoffs. This includes Golden State, in which Stephen Curry has not played more than 64 games in the last four regular seasons.

*James Harden Enters the Chat*

We can’t conclude this NBA Pacific Division preview without addressing the elephant in the room. James Harden, the disgruntled former MVP, is heavily expected (-265 on the odds) to be traded to the Clippers. How they’ll do it is anyone’s guess. We could have a new Big 3 over in Inglewood (home of their new arena for 2024).

That’s cool and the Clippers may blow up NBA scores and headlines. It will shorten their outright odds by a bit. But it won’t move the needle for us or anyone sharp enough to notice.

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