Aces vs Sky Betting Preview: Las Vegas the WNBA’s Team-To-Beat

The Las Vegas Aces have been the WNBA’s team-to-beat for months on end. Will that change anytime soon? The stakes are about to be amplified, as the top-seeded Aces open the playoffs Wednesday (10 p.m. ET) against the eighth-seeded Chicago Sky at home.

Las Vegas is easily the largest favorite of the first round, coming in at -16.5 points (-110) for Game 1. The Aces are also -2200 on the moneyline, compared to +1200 for Chicago. The projected total is 169.5 (-114 Over, -106 Under). Las Vegas is also a -6000 favorite to win the best-of-three series, with Chicago priced +1600.

Game 2 is currently scheduled for Sunday (3 p.m. ET), also in Las Vegas, while Chicago would host a potential Game 3 on Sept. 20 (10 p.m. ET). Read on as we break down both teams in our Aces vs Sky betting preview.

Odds Outlook

The Chicago Sky have been among the most profitable teams for bettors, with a 22-17-1 record against the spread. That includes 12-8 ATS on the road and 15-12 as an underdog. Notably, Chicago has won its last three games ATS. Conversely, Las Vegas is 21-20 ATS, including 13-8 at home and 21-19 as a favorite. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Aces vs Sky betting preview.

Aces the WNBA’s Team to Beat

To date, the Las Vegas Aces have lived up to their reputation as a WNBA “Super Team”. The Aces, fueled by MVP favorite A’ja Wilson, rolled to a league-best 34-6 record and the No. 1 overall seed. They’ve remained the title favorite in doing so, watching their odds drop from +120 in the preseason to -150.

Las Vegas has been the league’s most efficient team in nearly every aspect, averaging an WNBA-best 92.8 points while allowing the second-fewest at 80.3 per game. The Aces’ plus-12.5 point differential is 3.9 points higher than the league’s next closest team, the New York Liberty. Las Vegas is cruising into the playoffs having won four straight and seven of its last 10.

Remarkably, the Aces did much of their damage without their marquee offseason acquisition, Candace Parker, who appeared in just 18 games before undergoing foot surgery in July. That’s because they had plenty of talent besides Parker, including Wilson. The five-time All-Star and reigning MVP was third in the WNBA in scoring (22.8) and second in rebounding (9.5).

Wilson was priced as low as +400 in July for MVP but turned the odds back in her favor with several dominant performances down the stretch, including a record-tying 53-point game against the Atlanta Dream on Aug. 22, per WNBA scores. She’s now a -110 favorite ahead of New York’s Breanna Stewart (+110).

Kelsey Plum (18.7 points per game), Jackie Young (17.6) and Chelsea Gray (15.3) joined Wilson in double figures, helping form the WNBA’s most dominant starting lineup. The quartet has accounted for 80.1% of the team’s scoring, a whopping sum that cannot be understated. Remember that when evaluating the odds in our Aces vs Sky betting preview.

Chicago Salvages Tough Season

The Chicago Sky used a late-season surge to sneak into the WNBA playoffs, winning their final three regular-season games to grab the eighth and final seed. At 18-22, Chicago is one of four teams to qualify for the postseason with a losing record. As such, the Sky are +25000 to win the WNBA title, matching the Minnesota Lynx for the longest remaining odds.

Chicago’s resume is underwhelming. It was just 5-15 against the Western Conference and lost nine of 11 to the top three teams in the WNBA standings in Las Vegas, New York and Connecticut. But it does have a few capable scorers in Kahleah Copper and Marina Mabrey.

Copper averaged a team-high 18.7 points and was voted an All-Star for the third straight season. She’s been particularly efficient of late, with four straight 20-point outings. And then there’s Mabrey, who is averaging a healthy 15.0 points while shooting 39% from 3-point range. The Sky also have a capable ball-handler in Courtney Williams, who ranks fourth in the league in assists per game (6.3).

The Sky are fairly balanced on both ends of the floor, ranking sixth in the league in both average points for (81.7) and against (83.4).

Handicapping the Game

Besides the New York Liberty, can anyone beat Las Vegas? The Aces went 2-2 against the Liberty (not including their 82-63 loss in the Commissioner’s Cup final) and 32-4 against everyone else. On paper, they’re the best WNBA team, bidding to become the first repeat champion since the Las Angeles Sparks in 2001 and 2002. They’re certainly more than capable, but with so little margin for error in the playoffs, anything’s possible. Well, almost anything.

Chicago did an admirable job squeaking out a playoff spot. But let’s face it, this is a huge mismatch. Las Vegas is already 3-0 against the Sky this season, having beaten them by an average of 10.6 points. The Aces are simply too deep, too strong and too skilled. This is shaping up to be a quick series, starting with Game 1.

For WNBA predictions, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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