Cavaliers vs Pelicans Odds: Cleveland Making Do Without Mitchell
Pelicans Are On A Roll
The Cleveland Cavaliers (41-24) visit the red-hot New Orleans Pelicans (39-25) on Wednesday night with the Pelicans having won four games in a row while the Cavaliers are struggling through the absence of their best player, Donovan Mitchell. Cleveland has had a rough go of it since Donovan Mitchell went down with a left knee bone bruise during Cleveland’s double-overtime loss to the Chicago Bulls on February 28th, losing four of seven. No wonder the Cavaliers vs Pelicans spreads favor the home team so much.
Things are looking great for Willie Green’s team right now. New Orleans has a 1.5-game edge over the Phoenix Suns for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference, and the Pelicans are just 2.5 games behind the No. 4 seed LA Clippers. They’re coming off a comfortable 116-103 win over the shorthanded Atlanta Hawks in which Trey Murphy III continued his hot shooting as of late, scoring 28 points off the bench.
If the NBA rumors are true that Mitchell could come back this week, that would be a massive boost for the Cavaliers, who lost to the lowly Brooklyn Nets on Sunday and the Phoenix Suns on Monday. He probably won’t be back in time for Wednesday’s game, however, which is good news for the Pelicans.
Let’s see what else is notable about this matchup, in which the Pelicans are 7.5-point favorites. The over/under is 218.5 points.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans Pelicans 
Points: (41-24) at (39-25)
Date, time:
Location: Smoothie King Center
Cavs Are Majorly Undermanned
Cleveland hasn’t been terrible without Mitchell — they managed to beat the Celtics and Timberwolves since he got hurt — but it’s evident that the Cavaliers just don’t have enough scoring punch when he isn’t on the floor. Plus, they’ve been without Evan Mobley (ankle) and Max Strus (knee) for the past week and neither looks to be ready to come back just yet so Cleveland will need to find scoring from unconventional sources.
Darius Garland has stepped up, and Caris LeVert has played well in spurts. Still, there just isn’t enough from guys like Isaac Okoro and Georges Niang consistently to justify smaller Cavaliers vs Pelicans spreads. For example, Niang had a big game against the Nets, which he followed up with a terrible shooting night against the Suns. Sam Merrill can get hot from three, and Craig Porter has impressed, but Cleveland still needs role players to fill more of the scoring burden.
The Pelicans are an elite defensive team—sixth in the NBA in defensive rating—so they won’t give up easy baskets. Couple that with the Cavs’ lack of playmaking or dynamic scoring ability right now, and it could be a long night for them.
Pelicans’ Strength Is Depth
The NBA odds like New Orleans because the Pelicans can win in a bunch of ways and because they don’t rely too heavily on any one player. Zion Williamson (who is having a somewhat under-the-radar great season), Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum are clearly the Pelicans’ best players, but none of them average more than 33.2 minutes or 22.1 points per game. Willie Green doesn’t need to overplay guys and doesn’t need all three of his top scorers to go off every night for the Pelicans to have a chance.
The steadiness of Jonas Valanciunas, the continued growth of Herb Jones and Murphy III, and the reliability of Larry Nance Jr., Naji Marshall, and Jose Alvarado off the bench give New Orleans a lot of plug-and-play options who excel in their respective roles. That can be difficult to find in the NBA, where productive players who don’t get a lot of run might grumble about their lack of playing time or struggle to go between playing 30 minutes one night and 10 minutes the next.
New Orleans, fortunately, doesn’t have that issue. With their top scorers all healthy and performing well simultaneously, the Pelicans seem to be firing on all cylinders, which is reflected in the Cavaliers vs. Pelicans spreads. If Ingram has an off-night, for example, like he did against the Hawks, there’s a good chance the slack will be picked up by someone else. That’s how the team turns from “pretty good” to “contender.”
Pelicans Are A Big Over
If you don’t think the Pelicans will cover a large spread or don’t feel comfortable with taking the Cavaliers as big underdogs, then it might be wise to consider taking the over. New Orleans is in first place in one of the NBA’s divisions but even this large of a spread might be an aggressive ask with how well Cleveland has managed to acquit itself in the absence of its best player.
The over has hit in 36 of New Orleans’ 64 games so far, which is the third-highest mark in the NBA. Even though the Pelicans are a good defensive team, this makes sense because they have the eighth-highest offensive rating in the league. Oddsmakers may not have fully adjusted after New Orleans was just 21st in offensive rating a season ago. The over also hit in the Pelicans’ 123-104 win over the Cavaliers earlier this season.
Look for there to be a lot of points scored on Wednesday night.
