Celtics Hope to Rebound in Game 3 Against Heat
Boston Widely Favored By Celtics vs Heat Spreads Despite Loss
The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are even at one game apiece following Miami’s stunning 111-101 victory in Game 2. The Eastern Conference first-round series now heads to South Beach, with Game 3 slated for Saturday. Boston is a nine-point favorite and -440 on the moneyline with Miami +340 to win outright. Meanwhile, the over/under is 205, below each of the totals from Games 1 and 2.
What should bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Celtics vs Heat spreads in our NBA playoff game preview.
Celtics vs Heat 
Records: Boston Celtics (65-19), Miami Heat (48-38)
Day/Time:
Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Streaming: TNT
Celtics vs Heat Betting Trends
The Boston Celtics are 42-37-5 against the spread (ATS), but just 3-7 over their last 10 games. Most of Boston’s games have trended toward the over, as the Celtics are 44-40 against the over/under. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are 43-41-2 ATS, including 7-3 over their last 10 games. As for the over/under, the Heat are 37-49.
Remember these betting trends when assessing the Celtics vs Heat spreads.
Miami ‘Heats’ Up from 3
No Jimmy Butler, no problem for Miami, which upended the heavily favored Celtics in Game 2 thanks to a terrific shooting performance. The Heat shot 49.3% from the floor and hit a franchise playoff-record 23 3-pointers, far exceeding their season average of 12.5 per game. The previous record was 20, set against Milwaukee in the 2021 first round.
The Heat shot better than 50% from beyond the arc in each of the first three quarters and finished at 53.5%.
Six different players hit multiple treys, led by Tyler Herro (6-11) and Caleb Martin (5-6). Herro finished with a team-high 24 points, while Martin and Bam Adebayo each scored 21.
The Heat are still longshots despite the win, though their Eastern Conference odds were sliced in half from +15000 to +7500. Their NBA title odds are now +20000, down from +30000. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Celtics vs Heat spreads.
That’s because the Heat must continue finding ways to win without Butler. The six-time All-Star — nicknamed “Playoff Jimmy” for his penchant for postseason heroics — is expected to miss the entire series with an MCL sprain. Butler sustained the injury during last week’s play-in loss to Philadelphia.
Miami isn’t known as an offensive juggernaut, so its Game 2 performance may be an anomaly in some respects. But bettors would be wise not to rule out the Heat given their past NBA results.
Boston Squanders Home Court
Despite its Game 2 loss, Boston remains the NBA’s team to beat. The Celtics are still -180 favorites in the East (-230 previously) and +145 to win the Finals (+145 previously).
A majority of Boston’s offense came from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, who combined for 61 of the team’s 101 points. Derrick White was the only other Celtic to score in double figures, finishing with 13 points.
The Celtics will need better contributions across the board to avoid falling victim to the Heat in back-to-back years. Perhaps no Celtic struggled more than Kristaps Porzingis, who shot 1 of 9 from the floor and had a plus/minus of -32 in 30 minutes per NBA stats.
The Celtics went 37-4 at TD Garden during the regular season, helping them lock up homecourt advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. However, they squandered that opportunity against Miami as the Heat overcame +850 moneyline odds to win outright.
Despite the Celtics’ 42-37-5 mark ATS, they have been unreliable for bettors of late. The Celtics have covered just thrice in the last 10 games at a rate of 30%.
Handicapping the Game
Boston swept Miami in three games during the regular season, outscoring the Heat by an average of 15 points. Then, the Celtics hammered them 114-94 in Game 1, building on that dominance. While it seemed as if this would be a quick series, Miami had other ideas.
The Heat showed a blueprint for how to beat the Celtics, burying them from deep. While they have several potent shooters, including Herro, it may be unreasonable to expect them to duplicate their Game 2 performance. In best-of-seven series such as this, it’s best that bettors not overreact to one game. That is especially true in this case, with the Heat coming off a record performance.
With that in mind, look for the Celtics to bounce back.
For betting odds, analysis and more on the NBA schedule today, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
