Golden State Faces Dallas in a Duel of Playoff Hopefuls
Warriors vs Mavericks Lines, Matchups and More
The Dallas Mavericks are on a three-game winning streak after a decisive road win against the Bulls on Monday. Meanwhile, the Warriors started their Texas trip with a win in San Antonio and continued their play as one of the hottest NBA teams on the road. Warriors vs Mavericks lines opened at Mavericks -7.5 and a total of 237.5.
The Warriors are 10-2 in their last 12 games on the road, but NBA injuries plague the Warriors again and they will be without their franchise star Stephen Curry Wednesday. None of those road wins, however, have been against Western Conference playoff teams. So Dallas will look to prove the Warriors’ recent road success a fraud.
Both these teams are fighting for their NBA playoff lives, currently seeded for the Play-In Tournament with hopes to escape, making this a huge game for Dallas and Golden State. Let’s look at some Warriors vs Mavericks lines to see how this game may shake out.
Warriors vs Mavericks 
Day/Time:
Records: Warriors (34-30)/Mavericks (37-28)
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Streaming: NBA League Pass, WFAA/UniMás 49, NBC Sports Bay Area
CP3’s Shiny New Toy
The Warriors redeemed themselves on the road Monday during the backend of a home-and-home with the San Antonio Spurs. Led by Chris Paul’s game-high eight assists and the Warriors’ fresh stash of young talent, they handily defeated the Spurs 112-102.
Jonathan Kuminga led the Warriors in scoring with 22 points and rookies Trayce Jackson-Davis (13 points, 10 rebounds) and Brandin Podziemski (14 points, eight rebounds) chipped in big.
Trayce Jackson-Davis 😤
13 Points
11 Rebounds
6/7 Shooting
5 Assists
1 Poster Dunk on Wemby— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) March 12, 2024
Many of Paul’s assists were to none other than rookie lob threat Trayce Jackson-Davis. Jackson-Davis and Paul run the pick-and-roll so harmoniously over the season that it. Even as a rookie Jackson-Davis is 11th in the league in score frequency percentage as the pick-and-roll man, scoring on 72.2% of those plays.
Paul also thrived as a scorer in those plays and chipped in 19 points in this team victory. Take a look at both of these duos’ scoring props against Dallas’s bottom-eight defense.
Another player to look at for picking up the slack in Curry’s absence will be Brandin Podiemski. Podiemski is averaging about 16 points, eight rebounds and four assists in the NBA games Curry missed this NBA season, well above his season averages. Podiemski’s over on points/rebounds/assists could also be a nice play for Wednesday.
Luka and Kyrie Cooking
Luka Doncic is a problem. He is averaging almost 35 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds on the season and currently has Dallas slightly ahead of the Warriors in the eighth seed in the West.
Not only does Luka tower over all NBA scoring leaders averaging 34.6 points per game (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 31.1 ppg is closest), but he also ranks third in assists per game.
The Warriors have often opted to guard Luka without double teaming, making Luka’s scoring average against the Warriors fourth highest among his opponents. This and the tear Luka has been on makes his points prop an intriguing bet.
His points line often sits at around 33 points, a line he has bested in eight of his last ten NBA games. We also like Daniel Gafford’s pounts+rebounds over against an undersized Warriors squad.
Outside of Luka’s individual dominance, Dallas’s success has been up and down. After pairing Luka with controversial star Kyrie Irving and starting 5-11 in Irvings’ games last season, Dallas has found a rhythm between their offensively dominant guards.
This season Dallas is 23-15 when Kyrie plays and has an offensive rating of 119.5, which would be third-best in the league.
Road Warriors Finally Tested
Although neither team’s NBA odds to win the championship are short (Warriors +3500, Dallas +3000), this Western Conference matchup will be a fight for important playoff seeding. Without Curry, the Warriors vs Mavericks lines opening at Dallas -7.5 is no surprise.
The Warriors are 20-9 ATS on the road and Dallas is 15-19 ATS at home. This could indicate the Warriors are a good bet to cover. But almost all of those road Warriors covers are with Curry playing.
We could see this game going either way. The young Warriors could come up big again and put up a great fight against Dallas to cover or Dallas will have too much star power and offensive options and blow out the hobbled “Dubs”.
For NBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
