Heat vs Suns Betting Preview: Turning it Up for Shorthanded Squads

We Had to Wait for These Betting Lines

Early bird bettors had to watch the betting lines like a hawk. The oddsmakers took their time releasing the numbers for this Heat-Suns game. And we don’t blame them. Miami and Phoenix typically have injured star NBA players. For Miami, Jimmy Butler is out, while the Suns’ Kevin Durant is listed as “questionable”. For this Heat vs Suns betting preview, we’ll assume KD sits, which is why Phoenix is favored by just four points.

Heat Can Manage Without Butler

Butler is Miami’s best player. But the Heat can do fine without him: 6-4 this season when he’s not in the lineup. This includes a stretch where Miami won four straight NBA games including one over Philadelphia. It’s the Heat. Erik Spoelstra was voted as the best current head coach in the NBA by his peers for a reason.

“Jimmy Butler is gonna have to take some time here,” NBA insider Shams Charania said. “He dealt with a calf strain on the opposite leg, and now he has a foot issue on the other leg. And Jimmy Butler, this is a guy that we forget — he’s advanced in his career.”

Without Butler, the Heat will see increased usage for the likes of Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. Kyle Lowry will also have to pitch in more than his usual nine or 10 points. But Miami is not to be trifled with, especially as a four-point dog on the NBA odds today.

Miami is 8-4 against the spread (ATS) as a road underdog this season. And since 2021, the Heat have the third-best cover rate as one: 60.3% (41-27-0). This team has always been better than what they appear on paper.

This team saves its best basketball for the postseason so it is unfazed losing a few games and dropping in the NBA standings. That might be a boon heading to Phoenix, a place where Miami has covered in 13 of its last 15 trips. With less pressure on Miami, the Heat can focus more on their game.

As for the Suns, there is nothing but pressure on this high-profile “superteam” experiment.

Suns Feeling the Heat

Wherever Durant goes, scrutiny follows. It’s a gift and a curse. But this is the bed he made. And with new ownership keeping their pedal to the metal, the Suns jettisoned almost everyone from last season to acquire Bradley Beal and form a new “Big Three”. But so far, it has been deja vu for KD.

Durant, Beal, and Devin Booker have barely played with each other. The three have been in and out of the NBA games schedule. But while Beal and Booker are set to play here, Durant is still dealing with a hamstring injury that is “progressing” per coach Frank Vogel.

Beal has played in just 10 games thanks to a litany of NBA injuries. This Friday’s game marks his fifth straight game. He’s also started to heat up having posted 20+ points in three straight contests. The combo of Beal and Booker may be enough to lift Phoenix. But our Heat vs Suns betting preview is bearish.

While Phoenix is 3-1 in Beal’s last four games, this NBA team has also not played the best competition. Their three victories came against Charlotte, Orlando, and Portland, who are a combined 15-37 on the road. Miami is 11-8 on the road and we already mentioned how good this team is at beating the NBA odds as an underdog.

The Suns also have one of the worst ATS records: just 3-14 in their last 17 games and just 1-7 in their last eight games at home. But four points is just over one possession. Still, we’d recommend staying away from Phoenix if our Heat vs Suns betting preview touts anything.

For NBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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