Knicks vs Heat Game 4: Miami Seeks 3-1 Series Lead

The Knicks vs Heat Game 4 odds show Miami favored by 4.5 points in what is a must-win situation for New York. The Knicks can’t afford to go down 3-1 in the series. The total on the game is down to 206.

Miami looks pretty smart after resting Jimmy Butler in Game 2. Despite Butler wanting to play, the Heat figured a few extra days to rest his ankle would be best. It looked that way in Game 3, as Butler scored a game-high 28 points. He wasn’t the rebounding machine we’ve seen in the playoffs, but he was efficient and the Heat finished with a 50-48 advantage on the boards.

Bam Adebayo had another solid performance for the Heat. He doesn’t get the attention some of the others do, but he’s averaging 16 points and nine rebounds. Max Strus had his second solid game in a row, ending with 19 points. Strong efforts from those two will go a long way.

For the Knicks, the game was decided behind the 3-point arc. Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson were a combined 0 for 10 in 3-pointers. New York shot 20% as a team, making just 8 out of 40 attempts. It wasn’t much better from 2-point range, as New York shot 34.1% from the field.

RJ Barrett played just 25 minutes for the Knicks and was 5 of 16 from the field, but he finished with a -32 rating, easily the worst on the team. Isaiah Hartenstein was next with a -18 rating. The only two Knicks players not to finish with a minus rating were Miles McBride and Daquan Jeffries. They played one minute each.

Heat Bench Does the Job

Miami has gotten good production from its bench throughout the playoffs. Game 3 was no exception. The Heat reserves outscored New York’s 32-25, had a 22-8 rebounding edge and were a collective +39. New York’s reserves were -41.

Miami Looks to Continue Trend

One thing we’ve seen this year is teams following home wins with another. Entering Sunday, home teams who won their previous game at home were 12-1 straight-up. These teams were 11-2 against the NBA point spread. Home teams have done well this postseason. Teams playing in front of the home fans have gone 31-23-1 (57.4%) against the NBA betting lines.

Free Throw Attempts Determine Winner

The first three games of the series have seen the team attempting the most foul shots win the game. Miami had a 29-20 advantage in Game 1. The Knicks outshot Miami 30-17 from the charity stripe in Game 2. The Heat attempted 31 free throws to 22 for New York in Game 3.

Handicapping Game 4

In the Knicks vs Heat Game 4, New York has to do a better job of rebounding. The Knicks had advantages of 9 and 16 in the first two games. In Game 3, the Heat had a two-rebounding advantage. The Knicks have had a rebounding edge all season. New York is +4.9 on the boards this season and has to take advantage of the team’s make-up.

But the biggest key for the Knicks is simply to shoot better. You’re not going to win many games when you hit 34.1% of your shots. The Knicks defense was strong, holding Miami to 38.9% from the field and 21.9% from 3-point range. As bad as Miami’s offensive numbers were, New York’s were worse.

Miami needs to come out with the same intensity it did for Game 3. With older players, such as Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love and Butler, a few extra days of rest could be huge. The Heat need to win as early as possible to put themselves in better shape for the next round.

Miami could afford to shoot a little better. The Heat’s best-shooting game this series was 44.7% in Game 2, which they happened to lose. Winning games shooting 38.9% or 42.4% is nice, but not something you can count on consistently.

Seeing Game 3 land under the total with both teams shooting at least 22 foul shots is a bit surprising. Games with both teams shooting 22 or more foul shots are now 28-10-1 (73.6%) in totals. Both teams struggling from the field is what kept the game under.

For the Knicks vs Heat Game 4, the Knicks will get some action having lost the last game. But the Heat have the trends in their favor and should be the right side in this one.

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