New Coach, Same Problems as Struggling Bucks Host Timberwolves
Timberwolves vs Bucks Lines: Milwaukee Among Worst ATS at 19-31-1
The Minnesota Timberwolves are off to their best 50-game start in franchise history. Still, they have plenty more work to do. There’s not much separating the NBA leaderboard in the Western Conference.
The Timberwolves will visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday (8 p.m. ET).
Milwaukee is down to a 1-point favorite after opening at -2. The Bucks are also -115 on the moneyline, with the Timberwolves priced -105. Meanwhile, the projected total is 226.5, with a slight edge to the Over at -112 odds.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both NBA teams and analyze the Timberwolves vs Bucks lines.
Timberwolves vs Bucks 
Day/Time:
Location: Fiserv Forum; Milwaukee
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Timberwolves vs Bucks Betting Trends
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 25-25-1 ATS, including 12-15 away from home. Minnesota is also just 24-26-1 against the Over/Under.
The Milwaukee Bucks, meanwhile, have fared even worse. The Bucks are just 19-31-1 ATS, producing the third-lowest cover rate (38%) in the NBA. On the flip side, they’re 28-23 against the Over/Under.
Be sure to keep these trends in mind when assessing the Timberwolves vs Bucks lines.
Defense Carrying T’Wolves
Minnesota has lost two of its last three games and is coming off a gut-wrenching 129-123 overtime defeat to the Bulls on Tuesday as a 4.5-point favorite. Taking things a step further, Milwaukee is just 5-5 over its last 10 games. As a result, the Timberwolves (35-16) have fallen into a four-way tie for first place in the Western Conference.
Despite their success, there’s still a bit of skepticism about their ability to make a deep NBA playoff run. Consider the oddsmakers, who are listing them +900 to win the West and +2000 to win an NBA championship. Six teams currently have better title odds, five of whom are 12/1 or better.
Can the Timberwolves break into that mix? Most definitely, but they must find a way to improve their 19th-ranked offense. Guard Anthony Edwards (25.9) and center Karl-Anthony Towns (22.7) are the only two Timberwolves averaging more than 14 points per game.
That should motivate them to look for reinforcements at Thursday’s trade deadline.
In the meantime, Minnesota’s defense continues to thrive. The Timberwolves are holding opponents to a league-low 107.1 points and 44.8% shooting percentage, according to NBA stats. Only three teams are surrendering fewer 3-pointers per game (11.5). The Timberwolves also have the league’s fourth-best points differential at plus-5.9.
Bettors shouldn’t be surprised then that Minnesota has gone Under the total in 52% of its games, including six of the last eight. That’s important to remember when analyzing the Timberwolves vs Bucks lines.
Still Searching for Answers
There was hope that a coaching change would spark better results in Milwaukee. So far, that hasn’t happened. The Bucks are just 3-5 since firing Adrian Griffin just 43 games into his first season at the helm.
The Bucks still have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference at 33-18. However, many of the same issues exist under Doc Rivers. The most glaring problems remain on defense. The Bucks have allowed an average of 117.2 points over their last five games, including 123 in Sunday’s loss to Utah. On the NBA season, they rank 24th in opponent’s scoring (119.8).
Oddsmakers seem to like their chances of eventually turning things around. The Bucks are +240 to win the East and +600 to win another title. At the moment, only three teams have shorter NBA odds: Boston (+265), Denver (+425), and the Clippers (+550).
Much of that optimism likely stems from the presence of Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP is averaging 31.3 points (second in NBA) on 61.1% shooting to go with 11.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists.
He’s scored at least 33 points in each of his last three games. Milwaukee also has a dynamic scorer alongside him in Damian Lillard, who’s averaging 24.9 points. Integrating them into the same lineup, however, has been difficult.
Milwaukee has failed to cover in four of its last five games and is just 19-31-1 ATS. Only two teams have produced fewer victories ATS.
Handicapping the Game
There doesn’t appear to be an immediate fix to the Bucks’ problems. They’re just 1-4 over their last five games, including a 119-116 loss to lowly Portland in Lillard’s homecoming game.
The Bucks — who went Under the total in each of those five NBA games — continue to struggle defensively, negating much of the production on the other end of the floor by Antetokounmpo.
Given Minnesota’s shortcomings, Milwaukee matches up relatively well. Plus, the Bucks are 21-5 at home compared to just 12-13 on the road. They certainly could use a more balanced effort.
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