Orlando, NBA’s Best Team ATS, Poised to Add to Miami’s Woes
Magic vs Heat Preview: Miami Just 2-8 ATS Over Last 10 Games
The Orlando Magic have been among the most pleasant surprises of the NBA’s first half, taking over first place in the Eastern Conference’s Southeast Division. Orlando will have an opportunity to create more separation atop the division when it visits the Miami Heat on Tuesday (7:30 p.m. ET).
Miami opened as a 3.5-point favorite and -162 on the moneyline, with Orlando priced +136 to win outright. The Over/Under is 213.5, the lowest projected total on the board for Tuesday.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the odds in our Magic vs Heat preview.
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat 
Date, time:
Location: Kaseya Center; Miami
Streaming: Live Sports Stream
Betting Trends
The Orlando Magic are 33-17 ATS, including 18-10 away from home. However, the Magic have been far less successful against the Over/Under, going just 22-27-1. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are 21-28-1 ATS, including 9-16 at home. Miami has covered in just 20 of its 50 games.
Be sure to remember these trends when assessing the betting odds in our Magic vs Heat preview.
Magic Surpassing Expectations
Orlando has won three straight on its current five-game road trip and heads into Tuesday with a record of 27-23. Projected for 37.5 regular-season wins, the Magic are well ahead of expectations as they look to return to the playoffs for the first time since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.
The Magic currently lead Miami by a game atop the Southeast Division and are seventh in the Eastern Conference NBA standings, 1.5 games behind Indiana. Oddsmakers have reacted accordingly, pricing the Magic -600 to make the playoffs, including -195 to participate in the postseason play-in tournament.
What happens beyond that is anyone’s guess. Despite being in first place, Orlando remains a +6000 longshot to win the East. Seven teams have shorter odds at the moment, including Miami at +1200.
The Magic have been among the league’s stingiest defensive teams, allowing the fourth-fewest points per game (110.6) and the 10th-lowest 3-point percentage (35.6). Four of their last eight opponents have been held under 100 points, including Miami in a 105-87 victory on Jan. 21.
It comes as little surprise then that Orlando has gone Under the total at the fifth-lowest rate (55.1%) in the league. In fact, the Magic are just 5-10 against the Over/Under in their last 15 games and 22-27-1 overall.
Additionally, the Magic’s 33 wins ATS are the most in the NBA. They’ve covered in five straight games and are 18-10 ATS on the road. Keep that in mind when analyzing our Magic vs Heat preview odds.
Heat Cooling Off
Miami has lost eight of its last 10 games to fall behind Orlando in the Southeast Division. It’s coming off a 103-95 loss to the Clippers on Sunday in which it failed to cover as a 5.5-point underdog.
Now 26-24, Miami sits eighth in the East. As such, the Heat are -140 to participate in the play-in tournament but -800 to make the playoffs.
At +1200, the Heat have the fifth-shortest odds of any team to win the East. They’re one of six teams at 15/1 or better.
Offensive production remains an issue. Miami ranks 27th in scoring (110.1 PPG), 26th in shooting percentage (46.0) and 21st in assist rate (25.7). The Heat have scored 110 points or fewer in 12 of their last 13 games and hasn’t surpassed 115 since Jan. 10.
Miami has gone Under the total in 11 of its last 13 games and is 20-30 against the Over/Under. Only Denver (37.3%) has hit the Over less often than the Heat (40%).
At 21-28-1, the Heat also have one of the league’s worst records ATS. They’re 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games and have covered in only nine of their 25 home games.
Handicapping the Game
This is the last four meetings between the teams in the regular season. The Magic are 1-2 in those but won the most recent matchup on Jan. 21, 105-87. Paolo Banchero led Orlando with 20 points and 10 rebounds while Bam Adebayo paced the Heat with 22 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists.
Miami is just 2-5 since then and has fallen into a precarious position in the East. Although the Heat still seemingly have enough talent to make another deep playoff run, they’re trending down ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline. That’s fueled speculation about them possibly making a move to enhance the core around Jimmy Butler, Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Keep that in mind when making your NBA picks.
For today’s NBA scores, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
