Pacers, Kings of the Over, Put Success on the Line Against Heat
Pacers vs Heat Betting Trends: Projected Total of 238.5
The Indiana Pacers have achieved one big order of business, making the quarterfinals of the NBA’s inaugural in-season tournament. But before turning their attention in that direction, the Pacers have other work to settle. Next is a two-game swing against the Heat, starting Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET) in Miami.
Miami Heat is a 2-point favorite (-110) and -130 on the moneyline, while Indiana is +2 (-110) on the NBA spread and +110 to win outright. The projected total is 238.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under), the second highest Over/Under on the slate.
Who has the edge? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Pacers vs Heat betting trends.
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat 
Day/Time: Location: Kaseya Center; Miami
Streaming: NBA TV
Pacers vs Heat Betting Trends
The Indiana Pacers are 9-7 against the spread, including 3-2 away from home. The total has gone Over in 14 of Indiana’s 16 games, including all five on the road. That’s easily the highest rate (87.2%) in the NBA.
Conversely, the Miami Heat are 8-10 ATS, including just 1-5 at home. The total has gone Under in 10 of the Heats’ 18 games.
Keep those trends in mind when assessing the Pacers-Heat odds.
High-Wire Acts
The Indiana Pacers have been, if nothing else, entertaining. Across the NBA, they’re first in offense and last in defense. They’ve already been involved in a few of the highest-scoring games this season, including a thrilling 157-152 victory over the Atlanta Hawks on Nov. 21. The teams easily cleared the projected total of 252.2, the highest Over/Under in the NBA in more than a quarter-century.
Fueled by star guard Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers average 127.6 points per game. They’ve scored at least 120 points in 12 of their 16 games. Seven times, they’ve surpassed 130. The next closest team, the Hawks, is averaging 5.1 points fewer than Indiana.
As such, the Pacers have been the kings of the Over. They’ve already cashed in 14 times, including 12 of the last 13 games. Monday’s 114-110 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers was one of the two exceptions. That’s important to remember when analyzing other Pacers vs Heat betting trends.
The Pacers are now 9-7, 3.0 games out of first place in the Central Division NBA standings. They won all four games during group play of the in-season tournament, becoming the first team to advance to the knockout stages. Despite that, they have the second-longest odds (+1400) of any team to win the tournament. Looking down the line, the Pacers are +1200 to win their division.
Haliburton is Indiana’s leading scorer, averaging 25.9 points in addition to 11.9 assists. He’s currently a +3000 longshot for NBA MVP, but that could change if the Pacers begin stringing together more victories. Seven other Pacers are currently scoring in double figures, including center Myles Turner (16.8) and guard Buddy Hield (13.6).
Cooling Off
The Miami Heat have hit the skids of late, losing three straight games. Their latest loss was Tuesday’s 131-124 setback to the Milwaukee Bucks. A 4.5-point underdog, Miami failed to cover the spread for the 10th time in 18 games this season, one of the lower rates (44.4%) in the NBA.
The Heat remain without guard Tyler Herro, who hasn’t played since Nov. 8 because of a sprained right ankle. The former NBA Sixth Man of the Year has resumed shooting at practice but is still at least a week away from returning to game action. Before his injury, Herro averaged 22.9 points on 44.7% shooting to go with 5.0 rebounds and 4.6 assists.
There’s still plenty of talent leftover in Miami, including center Bam Adebayo and guard Jimmy Butler, but the Heat have yet to kick things into gear. They’ve been a bit up and down, with a record of 10-8. While they’ve been leapfrogged by the Orlando Magic (12-5) atop the Southeast Division, oddsmakers expect the Heat to round into form eventually. The Heat are still +120 favorites to win the division and are +1400 to defend their Eastern Conference title.
Adebayo is Miami’s leading scorer, averaging 23.3 points. He’s also posting 10.3 rebounds and 1.1 blocks per game. At +1100, he’s one of the top contenders for NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Handicapping the Game
The Pacers have covered the spread in four of the last five games at Miami but are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games against the Heat. They’re more formidable now with Haliburton, but that may not be enough.
Regardless, given Indiana’s proficiency on offense, the Over might be the best play here.
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