Sun vs Lynx Betting Odds: Connecticut Following Thomas’ Lead

The WNBA playoff schedule tips off Wednesday (8 p.m. ET), with the third-seeded Connecticut Sun hosting the sixth-seeded Minnesota Lynx in Game 1 of their best-of-three series. Connecticut is a 9.5-point favorite (-110) and -510 to win outright, with Minnesota priced +390. Meanwhile, the projected total is 161.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

Game 2 is slated for Sunday (1 p.m. ET), also in Connecticut, while a winner-take-all Game 3 would be Sept. 20 (8 p.m. ET) in Minnesota. The Sun are a heavy -650 favorite to win the opening round, while Minnesota is +450.

Can Connecticut live up to expectations? Read on as we break down both teams in our Sun vs Lynx betting odds preview.

Odds Outlook

The Minnesota Lynx have been among the most profitable teams for bettors, with a 21-18-1 record against the spread. That includes a 12-8 mark ATS on the road and 14-12 as an underdog. The Connecticut Sun have been even better, going 22-16-1 ATS, including 11-9 at home and 16-11-1 as a favorite. Both Minnesota (23-17) and Connecticut (21-17-1) also have winning records against the Over/Under. That’s important to remember when evaluating the Sun vs Lynx betting odds.

Sun Following Thomas’ Lead

The Connecticut Sun turned in a solid regular season, finishing with a 27-13 record and the No. 3 overall seed for the playoffs. While the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty were widely considered the two best WNBA teams, Connecticut wasn’t far behind. The Sun started 12-3 and remained in contention throughout the regular season, even overcoming the loss of two-time All-Star center Brionna Jones (torn Achilles).

While Connecticut is a +2000 longshot for the WNBA title, up from +4500 in the preseason, it owns the third-best odds on the board behind the aforementioned “Super Teams,” Las Vegas (-150) and New York (+150).

Connecticut was largely carried by forward Alyssa Thomas, who averaged a healthy 15.5 points to go with a league-best 9.9 rebounds per game. Thomas, 31, also ranked second in assists (7.9) and tied for third in steals (1.8) while playing more minutes (36.2) than anyone outside of Dallas’ Arike Ogunbowale (37.2).

An All-Star for the fourth time, Thomas also set WNBA records for most triple-doubles (six), double-doubles (28) and assists (317) in a single season. As such, Thomas has seen her MVP odds jump to +900, though she remains comfortably behind Las Vegas’ A’ja Wilson (-110), the reigning winner, and New York’s Breanna Stewart (+110). Wilson was priced as low as +400 in July but turned the race back in her favor with several impressive performances down the stretch, including a record-tying 53-point outing against the Atlanta Dream on Aug. 22.

While Jones’ absence undoubtedly hurts, Connecticut has a strong complement to Thomas in DeWanna Bonner. Bonner is averaging a team-high 17.4 points, including 17.5 against Minnesota, along with 5.6 rebounds and 1.1 steals. Thomas and Bonner have been especially impactful on the defensive end, helping Connecticut hold opponents to a league-low 79.0 points per game. Keep that in mind when assessing the Sun vs Lynx betting odds.

Lynx Faltering Down Homestretch

Despite a miserable 0-6 start, the Minnesota Lynx find themselves back in the WNBA playoffs for the 12th time in 13 seasons. The Lynx also faltered down the stretch, going 6-8 over their final 14 games, but it ultimately didn’t cost them as they finished sixth in the WNBA standings.

At 19-21 — one of four sub-.500 teams to make the playoffs — the Lynx are an WNBA title longshot at +25000. But they do have one of the league’s premier players in forward Napheesa Collier. After missing the majority of last season following childbirth, Collier, 26, returned to average 21.5 points, fourth-most in the WNBA. A three-time All-Star, Collier also ranked seventh in both rebounding (8.5) and steals (1.6).

Most of the Lynx’s issues came on the defensive end, where they allowed an average of 85 points. That was second-most in the WNBA behind only the Indiana Fever (85.1). Notably, Minnesota gave up 85 points or more in four of its last six games, including 111 in a loss to New York on Aug. 26.

Handicapping the Game

Connecticut is 3-1 against Minnesota this season, with the lone loss coming July 30 at home, 87-83. The Lynx have some obvious deficiencies, defense being one, but Collier is good enough to negate them when she’s on. But Connecticut is a step above the Lynx, led by Thomas.

Thomas is in midst of one of the best individual seasons in WNBA history. And that’s no exaggeration. Night-in, night-out, Thomas impacts the game on both ends of the floor. It’s why she’s a deserving finalist for WNBA MVP, though she probably won’t win it. Because of her, the Sun have a decided edge in this series, especially at Mohegan Sun Arena (13-7).

For WNBA predictions, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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