Suns vs Pelicans Spreads: Like a Mini All-Star Game in Favor of New Orleans
Up To Six All-Stars Dress for High-Powered Matchup
Pelicans Slightly Favored With Both Teams Healthy
Phoenix and New Orleans are almost at full strength when they meet this Friday. This is a rarity as these teams usually have a few of their All-Stars out with an injury. But fans get a treat as they witness a mini NBA All-Star game. The Suns vs Pelicans spreads peg the latter as the two-point favorites. Neither squad has done too well against the spread, however.
Suns vs Pelicans
Day/Time:
Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
TV & Live Stream: ESPN, ESPN+
Suns, Pelicans Anything But Dazzling ATS
From an on-court perspective, Phoenix and New Orleans can play some pulchritudinous basketball. They are two winning teams despite their injuries. But if we put their records against point spreads, they leave much to be desired. So which of the two can be trusted on the Suns vs Pelicans spread?
On one hand, Phoenix has the second-worst cover rate in the league at 35.9% (14-25-1). On the other, New Orleans is only 8-7 ATS when playing conference games at home. And as a favorite, the Pelicans are just 6-7. Since New Orleans has a slightly better record here, it gets the edge via the oddsmakers. Let’s dig deeper.
New Orleans has faced a tougher NBA game schedule than Phoenix. The Pelicans are 16-10 against teams at .500 or better. This 61.5% winning percentage is third in the NBA. In comparison, Phoenix is only 9-12 in this area. That’s why the Suns are underdogs on the Suns vs Pelicans spread. Even as underdogs, Phoenix is just 4-7 ATS and 3-8 straight-up.
Of course, Phoenix has hardly been healthy. Bradley Beal, its new superstar acquisition, has played in only 16 games. Since he’s returned, Phoenix has won seven of its last 10 games. Still, the Suns only covered three of these games and lost both as an underdog.
The Suns have won four of its last six meetings with New Orleans. Kevin Durant has averaged 26.5 points on 51.2% shooting in his career against NO. But New Orleans has a top-10 defense at home, allowing only 110.6 points. Phoenix is only 3-10 when it scores 111 points or fewer this season.
This Brings Us to The Points and the Over/Under
The total of 235 points is a compromised NBA prediction between the Pelicans’ strong defense and the firepower present. Both sides average between 114 to 116 points given their locations. However, these teams have also been on fire lately.
Phoenix is scoring 118.8 points in its last 10 games (with Beal). New Orleans is averaging 121 points. Both are shooting over 50%. And consider that they are in the bottom 10 in pace during this span. But can both sides stay this efficient to go over the total?
The Suns have the second-best defense at limiting home teams’ shooting: 45.7%. New Orleans averages around the same against visitors. Should these teams see a dip in their field-goal percentage, combining to score over 235 points may be unlikely.
The total has gone over in 10 straight games between these teams in the Smoothie King Center. This is an idiosyncrasy at best given the different lineups the Suns and Pelicans have dressed.
But given New Orleans’ hot shooting lately, four of its last five games have gone over their totals. The ‘over’ is 9-8-1 when oddsmakers line Pelican games at 230+ on the totals. For Phoenix, it has gone over in four of the last five times they had totals this high.
Phoenix is eighth in the NBA playoff standings and New Orleans is fifth. These teams have title aspirations and want to win every game. This could push them to play better on both ends here, so betting against the total is not a bad pick.
For NBA betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
