Surging Cavaliers Overtake Bucks as Central Division Favorite

The Milwaukee Bucks have won five straight division titles, and after loading up in the offseason, many expected them to build on that streak. But as we hit the unofficial halfway point of the 2023-24 NBA season, things haven’t gone as planned for Milwaukee.

Amidst the Bucks’ struggles, the Cleveland Cavaliers have surprisingly taken over as the team-to-beat in the Central Division. At 36-17, Cleveland holds a slim 2.5-game lead on the Bucks, with the Indiana Pacers sitting in third at 6.5 games back.

Can Cleveland maintain its hot start and hold off Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. for its first division crown since 2018? Or will Milwaukee defy the current odds and claw its way back to the top? Read on as we break down the updated NBA Central Division odds.

THE FAVORITE

Cleveland Cavaliers (-350)

Picked to be a bridesmaid to Milwaukee, Cleveland is now at the head of the altar.

Fueled by Donovan Mitchell, the Cavaliers hit the All-Star break at 36-17, second in the Eastern Conference behind Boston (43-12). As such, they have seen their NBA Central Division odds soar from +260 to -350. Despite that, the Cavaliers still have the fourth-longest conference odds (+900).

What’s most impressive is that Cleveland has accomplished this despite being far from whole. Guard Darius Garland (jaw) and center Evan Mobley (knee) have missed 24 and 23 games, respectively, with NBA injuries.

Fortunately, they still have Mitchell, the NBA’s fifth-leading scorer (28.4). Mitchell has led them in scoring in 11 of the last 12 games. The five-time All-Star has also been strong defensively, ranking third in the league with 84 steals.

Cleveland has been among the most profitable NBA teams for bettors, going 28-23-2 against the NBA line for a cover rate of 54.9%.

TOP CONTENDER

Milwaukee Bucks (+230)

Things have been a bit chaotic for Milwaukee. And that’s putting it mildly.

The offseason trade for Damian Lillard brought huge expectations. The Bucks — a -360 preseason division favorite — got off to a 30-13 start, but concerns about their defensive capabilities led to a stunningly quick dismissal of coach Adrian Griffin. They quickly tabbed Doc Rivers to replace him.

Unfortunately for Milwaukee, things have not gone any better under Rivers. They’re just 3-7 since Rivers took over, and after their last NBA game, a 113-110 loss to lowly Memphis, Rivers questioned their effort. On top of that, they are now just 21-34-1 ATS.

The good news is Milwaukee (35-21) is still sber-talented. In Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lillard, the All-Star Game MVP, it boasts one of the best one-two punches in the NBA. As a team, Milwaukee ranks second in the league in scoring (122.0) and third in field goal percentage (49.4).

Oddsmakers remain bullish of the Bucks, who still have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA title (+700). But improvement is needed.

NEXT IN LINE

Indiana Pacers (+8000)

Much has gone right for Indiana. In addition to completing a blockbuster trade for Pascal Siakam, Indiana has watched Tyrese Haliburton blossom into a legitimate superstar.

Despite that, no one really expects Indiana (31-25) to win the Central. In fact, since the start of the season, the Pacers’ NBA Central Division odds have ballooned from +3600 to +8000.

Why? As good as the Pacers are offensively, they’re equally bad on defense. Opponents are averaging 122.3 points, third-most in the NBA behind Washington and Atlanta. They also rank last in field goal defense (50.3%) and 20th in 3-point defense (37.2%).

For any contender, that is simply unsustainable.

Chicago Bulls (+100000)

The Bulls are talented on paper. With DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, Nikola Vucevic, and an emerging star in Coby White, they should — that’s right, ‘should’ — be good enough to compete for an NBA playoff spot in the East. And technically speaking, they are.

Still, something is off with the Bulls (26-29). They are just 5-6 over their last 11 games and 11-10 since the calendar turned to 2024. In many ways, the Bulls, who sit ninth place in the East, are the definition of average. And in the NBA, that is perhaps the worst place to be.

An offseason shake-up seems likely, with the Bulls opting to move on from big-name veterans like DeRozan and Lavine in favor of youngsters like White and Ayo Dosunmu. For now, their only choice is to play out the string and hope to sneak into the postseason play-in tournament.

Detroit Pistons (OTB)

The Detroit Pistons have virtually no shot to win the Central. In fact, the +25000 preseason longshots are now entirely off the board in some sportsbooks.

Yes, things are that bleak in Detroit.

The Pistons hold the worst record in the NBA standings at 8-46. From Oct. 28 through Dec. 28, the Pistons lost 28 straight games, surpassing the 2010-11 Cavaliers and 2013-14 76ers for most consecutive losses in one season.

Detroit, which also dropped its last three games prior to the All-Star break, is now 28.5 games out of first place. In other words, it’s on the verge of being officially eliminated from division contention … in February.

The good news — if there is any — is that Detroit will be in strong position for the NBA lottery. The bad news is that this draft class is shaping up to be somewhat underwhelming.

For NBA picks, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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