Warriors vs Lakers Game 4: Spread Growing in LA’s Favor

The Los Angeles Lakers are up 2-1 on the Golden State Warriors following a 127-97 rout on Saturday at home. Can the Warriors respond in Game 4 (Monday, 10 p.m. ET)? Or will the defending NBA champions fall to the brink of elimination?

Read on for our Warriors vs Lakers Game 4 betting preview.

Disparity at the Line

Much of what cost the Warriors in Game 3 also contributed to their series-opening loss. Los Angeles attempted 37 free throws on Saturday, compared to 17 for Golden State. The difference was even more stark in Game 1 (29-6). The Lakers are averaging 27.6 attempts this series and 23.7 during the playoffs, more than any remaining team besides New York (24.9).

For Los Angeles, it’s simply a continuation of the regular season. Nobody got to the free-throw line more frequently. The Lakers attempted a league-high 26.6 free throws per game, while the Warriors averaged the fewest at 20.2. That number has improved only slightly (21.5) in the postseason.

Golden State’s often been able to make up that disparity with its elite perimeter shooting. The Warriors led the NBA with 16.6 3-pointers per game during the regular season. However, they shot just 13-of-44 (29.5%) from beyond the arc in the 30-point drubbing, well below their average of 38.5%.

Will that trend continue in Warriors vs Lakers Game 4?

AD Heating Back Up

Lakers star Anthony Davis followed up an underwhelming Game 3 (11 points on 5-of-11 shooting, seven rebounds) by posting 25 points, 13 rebounds and four blocks. After playing 33 minutes, he was able to sit most of the fourth quarter with the lead comfortably in hand. He was +28 on the floor.

Davis, who has alternated hot and cold performances this series, is now averaging 22 points, 14.3 rebounds, 3.7 blocks and 1.3 steals against Golden State, per NBA player stats. He’s shooting 57.5%, slightly better than his season average.

With help from JaMychal Green, a surprise replacement in the lineup for Kevon Looney, Golden State was able to minimize Davis’ impact in Game 2. Green gave the Warriors better spacing on offense and more athleticism on defense. However, Saturday was a different story. Davis had his way with both Green and Draymond Green, who had five fouls in 23 minutes.

LA Gets Boost for the ‘Future’

Los Angeles jumped back ahead of Golden State in the futures market following its Game 3 victory. While top-seeded Denver remains the favorite in the West at +150, Los Angeles is now next in line at +200 (up from +285), followed by Golden State at +400.

While Boston (+125) is still the overall NBA favorite, both Denver (+375) and Los Angeles (+450) have maintained their place near the top of the board. Meanwhile, Golden State’s odds dropped from +550 to +850.

Handicapping Game 4

Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite for Warriors vs Lakers Game 4, including -155 on the moneyline. Golden State, meanwhile, is priced at +135. The over/under is set at 227.5, 3.5 points higher than the combined total from Game 3.

Down 2-1, Golden State will have one more game in Los Angeles before the series shifts back home. The Warriors aren’t panicking — “We’ve been through more adversity than a 2-1 deficit,” star guard Klay Thompson reminded reporters after Game 3. “We know how to respond.” — but the circumstances are getting more dire.

When it mattered most, Golden State (13-33 on the road) got it done at Sacramento in Round 1. Granted, with LeBron James and Davis, the Lakers are in a different class than the Kings. The Warriors will need to figure out how to win at least once in the Lakers’ building to maintain their shot at an NBA title repeat. That much is certain.

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