Warriors vs Suns ATS Analysis & Betting Tips

The Golden State Warriors hit the road and head to Phoenix for their first road game of the season on Tuesday night. Steph Curry and company are out to a 2-1 start to the season with wins against the Lakers and Kings and a loss to the Nuggets. Phoenix enters the game with the exact same record, beating the Mavs and Clippers while losing to the Blazers on the road. The Warriors vs Suns ATS record are also exactly the same at 1-2 ATS. Their NBA game schedule has these two teams playing four times this season. Last season, they split the series 2-2.

Warriors Playing at Warp Speed

The Warriors vs Suns ATS line opened with the Suns as a 2.5-point favorite and NBA over-under picks sitting at 224.5. So far this season, Golden State has looked every bit of the championship team it was a year ago. They are averaging 125.3 points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. That’s not hard to believe based on the offensive talent they have on their roster. From Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggings, there is no shortage of scoring talent on this team.

The pace that the Warriors are playing at also leads the league at 110.3. While it is undoubtedly tough to slow down one of the NBA’s best offensive teams with the talent they have around them, the Suns will have to force Golden State to play at their pace if they want a chance to win.

Sun’s Defense Remains Top-Notch

The Phoenix Suns defense was phenomenal last year and one of the reasons they were able to win 62 games. It ranked 3rd in the NBA with a defensive rating of 106.8 and has only gotten better in the early start of this season. While it’s still very early, through three games this year, the Suns have a defensive rating of 104, with both their paint defense and perimeter defense ranking in the top half of the league.

Phoenix guard Mikal Bridges was runner-up for defensive player of the year last season and is a shut-down defender that will likely be the one tasked with guarding either Curry or Thompson. The Suns also play at a much slower pace than Golden State which should slow the game down and allow them to get back and get their defense set on that end of the floor.

Historically Tight Matchups

We expect Tuesday night’s game to be much closer and think the Warriors vs Suns ATS line of Suns -2.5 is the right side.

Historically, each of the four times these two teams meet each year, the games are highly contested and have the feel of a playoff atmosphere. That’s because these are two of the top teams in the Western Conference and have a real potential of meeting in the conference finals. Not to mention the fact that this is a NBA divisional match which could have serious implications down the road.

With the Suns and Warriors splitting the series last season, the Suns won two games by an average of six points while the Warriors won by an average of 15.5. However, Suns All-Star player Devin Booker was out for the second meeting of the year in which the Warriors won by 20. We expect Tuesday night’s game to be much closer and think the Warriors vs Suns ATS line of Suns -2.5 is the right side.

In terms of the total, we would recommend taking the under. Last year’s final scores ended at 200, 214, 223, and 210, none of which would have hit this game’s opening line of 224.5. These are two teams that don’t like each other, which means defense becomes more of an emphasis when they play. The Suns play at the 27th slowest pace in the league right now and we can expect Phoenix to force the Warriors to play at their pace, especially on their home floor. Therefore, our favorite play for the night is to take the under 224.5, while we lean to the Suns covering the spread at -2.5.

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