West-Leading Thunder Seek Sixth Straight Win as Houston Visits
Rockets vs Thunder Lines: Oklahoma City NBA-Best 36-20-1 ATS
The Oklahoma City Thunder, billed as a preseason dark horse to win the Western Conference, have arrived. At 40-17, the Thunder are tied for the conference’s best record and have seen their NBA title odds skyrocket.
Hoping to lock down a top-four seed in the West, it is paramount that the Thunder take care of business down the stretch. That includes Tuesday’s (10 p.m. ET) nationally televised date with the Houston Rockets.
Oklahoma City opened as a 9.5-point favorite at -105 odds. Meanwhile, the projected total opened at 234.5.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Rockets vs Thunder lines in our NBA game preview.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder 
Location: Paycom Center; Oklahoma City
Day/Time: Streaming: TNT
Rockets vs Thunder Betting Trends
The Houston Rockets are 28-27-2 ATS, including just 9-17-1 away from home. The Rockets have struggled against the Over/Under, going Under the total in 30 of their 57 games. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder are 36-20-1 ATS, including 20-9 at home. As for the Over/Under, Oklahoma City is 32-22-3.
Be sure to remember these betting trends when assessing the Rockets vs Thunder lines.
Houston, We’ve Got a Problem
The Rockets are fading, having lost seven of their last nine games to drop to 25-32. They are now 12th in the Western Conference, putting their playoff hopes in peril. Even the postseason play-in tournament is looking increasingly unlikely for Houston.
Oddsmakers seem to agree, as the Rockets are now +1300 longshots to make the play-in tournament.
Houston is coming off a 123-110 loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Rockets hit 16 3-pointers but gave up 17, squandering a five-point halftime lead in the process. As 6.5-point underdogs, the Rockets failed to cover for the sixth time in nine games.
Adding big-ticket free agents like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks should have raised the proverbial floor in Houston. Instead, the Rockets — projected for 31.5 regular-season wins — continue to sink.
Most glaring is Houston’s inability to win on the road. The Rockets have dropped seven straight road games and are just 5-22 away from home. That includes 9-17-1 ATS. Only the Pistons have fewer road wins (4-24).
The Rockets have struggled to create much separation, either good or bad. On average, they’re allowing the same number of points (113.1) as they are scoring. They are one of only two teams with a points differential fewer than 1.0.
On top of that, Houston is shooting a relatively inefficient 45.9%, including 35.2% on 3-pointers. Both categories rank bottom five in the NBA.
SGA Fueling Terrific Thunder
Winners of five straight and eight of their last 10, the Thunder (40-17) now share the best record in the Western Conference with Minnesota. The Thunder have a 1.5-game lead on defending NBA champion Denver, but only 2.5 games separate the conference’s top four seeds.
As such, the Thunder’s odds have winning the West NBA bracket have skyrocketed from +4500 to +800. Both the Nuggets (+245) and Clippers (+250), however, are still viewed as better bets. Meanwhile, the Thunder are +2000 to win the NBA Finals, one of seven teams with 20/1 or better title odds.
The Thunder’s success is no mystery. They have a legitimate superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, an elite shot blocker in 7-foot-1 Chet Holmgren, and an emerging supporting cast. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.2 points, second among NBA scoring leaders behind Dallas’ Luka Doncic (34.3). Gilgeous-Alexander is also a terrific defender, leading the league with 120 steals. His odds of winning MVP have soared to +250, trailing only Denver’s Nikola Jokic (-160).
Efficiency is what separates Oklahoma City. The Thunder are shooting a healthy 50.2%, including an NBA-best 39.8% on 3-point attempts. They also lead the league in free-throw percentage (83.1%), showing an ability to score at all points on the floor. Because of that, they are beating opponents by an average of 8.2 points.
Oklahoma City has been especially profitable for bettors, going 36-20-1 ATS for a cover rate of 64.3%. Only Orlando (37-21) has more wins ATS, albeit with a slightly lower cover rate. The Thunder have covered in each of their last five games and six of their last nine. They are 26-15 ATS when favored, including 7-3 when the spread hits double digits. Keep that in mind when analyzing the Rockets vs Thunder lines.
Handicapping the Game
This is the third of four regular-season meetings between the teams, including the second in a three-day span. Houston won 110-101 on Dec. 6 before Oklahoma City returned the favor on Sunday. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 34.5 points in those games and has led Oklahoma City in scoring in 15 of the last 17 games.
Houston has shown it can keep pace offensively with Oklahoma City, but its road struggles are hard to overlook. Oklahoma City has been the best home team (23-6) in the NBA outside of Boston.
Oklahoma City is also relatively healthy, which bodes well.
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