Will The 76ers Tie The Series At Two?
The Knicks vs 76ers Odds Expect Philadelphia To Win Game 4
Philadelphia got its first win of the NBA Playoffs last night.
After falling to the New York Knicks in back-to-back road games to begin the series, the Philadelphia 76ers earned a home win in Game 3 to cut the series deficit in half.
To get the win, a hobbled Joel Embiid scored 50, and Tyrese Maxey contributed 25, combining for 75 of the 76ers’ 125 points in the 125-114 victory.
The game was back and forth through the first two quarters. Eventually, however, the 76ers pulled away and held on against a pesky Knicks team. The series can now be tied in Game 4 on Sunday.
Oddsmakers have opened the lines with the 76ers at -5 for Game 4 of this series. Meanwhile, the total is hovering around 208.5, with the Under slightly higher at -113.
What should we make of these Game 4 Knicks vs 76ers odds?
New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers 
Day/Time:
Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
Streaming: ABC
Knicks vs 76ers Odds & Trends
In the first three games of the playoff series, the 76ers have covered against the spread in two of the three NBA betting lines. However, the Knicks have won straight up in two of them.
Although the Under was profitable in the regular season between the Knicks and 76ers, the Over has taken over in the playoffs. After a 125-114 offensive explosion in Game 3, the Over has hit in two of the three games.
Still, the Knicks are 6-4 against the 76ers in the last ten games, including the postseason. The Under has also hit in six of the last ten games.
The NBA Playoff picture got the perfect opening-round matchup.
Mitchell Robinson’s Status
Joel Embiid has a history of dirty plays throughout his career.
In Game 3, he had multiple instances that could’ve resulted in Embiid being ejected from the game. Instead, he was hit with a flagrant one after intentionally tackling Mitchell Robinson by the legs while on the ground, so he couldn’t score a bucket.
Robinson sprained his ankle on that play and didn’t return. He was also seen walking out of the locker room in a boot.
Therefore, it’s unlikely he’ll be available for Game 4 of this series, and the Knicks vs. 76ers odds reflect that.
Embiid had other moments where he kneed Isaiah Hartenstein and added another blow to Mitchell Robinson on a loose ball.
Joel Embiid’s Getting Treatment For Bell’s Palsy
For the first time since March 31, the Philadelphia 76ers showed competent offense.
The 76ers scored 138.9 points per 100 possessions against the Knicks, the first time they had scored more than 120.8 points per 100 possessions since March 31 against the Raptors.
Philadelphia also added a 65.5% effective field goal percentage and grabbed 32.4% of offensive rebounds. In addition, the 76ers had a free throw rate of 37.8 and got to the foul line at will, thanks to Embiid’s ability to get there.
If the 76ers can stay consistent offensively, they’ll be a tough out. We just haven’t seen this type of offense out of the 76ers since Embiid returned. It took 75 points from Embiid and Maxey to escape Wells Fargo Center with a win.
What happens when one of those two has an off night? Right now, it feels like those two will never have a bad night. But we just saw Jalen Brunson struggle to begin the playoffs. Other guys stepped up.
The 76ers don’t have that. No other player scored more than 15 points for the 76ers in Game 3. That’s concerning if I’m Philadelphia. You’re not getting 50 points from Embiid every game, especially with everything going on in his life. He’s recovering from a leg injury, has Bell’s Palsy, and has been dealing with mental health issues. There’s a lot on his shoulders, and it’s super unlikely he’ll be able to contribute consistently like that.
Meanwhile, the 76ers are typically a terrific defense. But against the Knicks, it hasn’t been so easy for them. Philadelphia has allowed at least 113.2 points per 100 possessions in all three games, while the Knicks have scored at least 125.3 points per 100 possessions in two of the three.
New York Knicks struggled from the field in the first two games but used a ton of offensive rebounds to defeat the 76ers. In Game 3, the Knicks kept turnovers below 10% and still added 32.6% of offensive rebounds. However, they also shot a 56.1% effective field goal percentage this time.
The difference was the foul line. The Knicks had a free throw rate of 14.6, while the 76ers had a 37.8 free throw rate. Plus, the 76ers were much more aggressive on the offensive glass. It helped with Mitchell Robinson out of the game.
That said, we don’t think foul calls will go away for the 76ers. If Philadelphia can find more consistency on the offensive glass and continue getting freebies at the line, it’s likely this game will go Over the total.
While the 76ers can beat you with plenty of foul shots and a higher effective field goal percentage, the Knicks are typically way more consistent on the offensive glass and don’t turn the ball over very often. They’ll beat you with more possessions and a relentlessness on the offensive glass.
You’d also have to imagine this game will be called tighter after the Game 3 incidents with Embiid. The Knicks will call in and complain that Jalen Brunson doesn’t get the same calls as Embiid. So Brunson may start to get to the foul line more frequently once the Knicks get their point across. Essentially, we know Embiid won’t have any trouble getting to the foul line. It’s like an art to him.
Therefore, our NBA predictions have the Over 208.5 (-107) as the play on Sunday.
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