Round One Check-In, Unders & Home Teams Dominate
NBA Round One Trends, Matchups and More
The playoffs are underway and so far it has lived up to the expectations. This was a season that perfectly exemplified the current parody that exists in the NBA, had new faces near the top of the conference standings (New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves), new names in the NBA MVP odds conversation, and now, lots of exciting first round match-ups on each side of the NBA playoff bracket.
NBA first-round series outlook for the 2024 playoffs, per @FDSportsbook: pic.twitter.com/m7X545DIRU
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 20, 2024
NBA round one trends have been interesting so far, with most of the games going to the home team, and the over/unders trending towards the under. We are going to look into some of these matchups, and NBA round one trends, and see what information we can take to gain an edge on the rest of the first round.
Home Court Advantage is Real
As of Wednesday morning, the first-round series currently are in the Western Conference:
| Match | Series Score |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns  | 2-0 |
 Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers  | 2-0 |
 Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans  | 1-0 |
 Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers  | 1-1 |
And in the Eastern Conference:
| Match | Series Score |
|---|---|
 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat  | 1-0 |
 Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers  | 1-1 |
 New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers  | 2-0 |
 Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic  | 2-0 |
One trend we can notice from these games is the home team has been dominating the money line so far this playoffs. Home teams are 12-2 straight up so far this postseason, and are 9-5 against the spread. The saying goes that a playoff series doesn’t start until a team wins on the road, and the next few days will tell us a lot about these series.
Even though most of the series are 2-0 in favor of the favored home teams, of all the series that have already played two games, only two have the home team covering the spread of both games. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 2-0 straight up and against the spread and the Timberwolves are 2-0 straight up and against the spread as well. Every other two-game series is 1-1 against the spread.
The Season of Unders
Game totals have been a point of interest for all NBA bettors this season. After what seemed to be an under-the-table conversation between the league and the referees during the all-star break, the referees completely started changing the way they were calling the game. For the betterment of fans everywhere it seemed like after the break referees started to give more leeway to defenses, allowing for more physicality and calling less cheap fouls.
The result of this was quite an increase in orders in the final stretch of the season. The oddsmakers seem to always have the book balanced, and in a typical NBA season, we see almost a 50/50 split between overs and unders. In this season, over the last 120 days, the breakdown was 46.1% over and 53.9% under.
Unders are 11-3 so far 😮 pic.twitter.com/P4QO5RoH8r
— ESPN BET (@ESPNBet) April 24, 2024
The NBA playoffs so far have continued with this under betting trend. As often is the case in the playoffs, the refs seem to be swallowing their whistles more and allowing for a bit more playoff physicality. As of Wednesday, games have gone under in 11 of the 14 games. It’s hard not to think this trend will be corrected, as the book doesn’t like to be wrong for long, but any total set at over 210 is officially on watch for a possible under in this new era of defensive freedom.
Things Will Likely Balance
In the case of home-court advantage, we can reasonably expect that the next few games may swing the pendulum slightly away from home teams winning. The higher seeds are going to start playing road games in the next couple of days, and that is where many of the series will start to take their shape. It is reasonable that teams like the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Cavaliers, or Celtics will be able to snag a win (or two) on the road in the next few days.
Some other trends from the first few games of the playoffs to look at are that the favorites are 10-4 straight up and 7-7 against the spread.
With these NBA round one trends in hand, make some informed bets and have fun in what has already been an exciting NBA playoffs so far.
2024 NBA Playoffs Results
For NBA playoffs predictions, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
