2024 NCAA Tournament Second Round Preview: Baylor vs Clemson
Bears & Tigers Cruised Through First Round
After both the Baylor Bears and Clemson Tigers coasted to easy First Round wins on Friday over Colgate and New Mexico, respectively, they are riding high in Sunday’s Second Round matchup down in Memphis.
No. 3 seed Baylor is favored by 4.5 points against No. 6 Clemson on the Baylor vs Clemson spreads as the Bears look to advance past the Round of 32 for the first time since 2021 when Baylor won the national championship. The Tigers haven’t done so since 2018 when they fell in the Sweet 16 to Kansas.
Baylor used a 54-point first half to take full control against Colgate and the Bears never looked back. Scott Drew’s team shot 58% from the field and 53% from three as the undersized Raiders just couldn’t match up Baylor’s athleticism and shooting ability.
Baylor led by 20 points at halftime and Colgate wasn’t able to cut into the deficit the rest of the day. If you have Baylor going far in your NCAA men’s tournament bracket, you have to be feeling good about how they played.
Clemson was equally impressive against the Lobos. The Tigers outscored New Mexico by 14 points in the first half and were able to keep a dangerous Lobos team at bay after the intermission.
Clemson held New Mexico to under 30% shooting — maybe the Lobos going 3-for-23 from three was a little fortunate — and got nice scoring performances from Chase Hunter (21 points), Ian Schieffelin (16 points) and PJ Hall (14 points) to overcome a rough shooting day from Joe Girard III. It wasn’t a perfect performance from the Tigers but it was more than good enough.
Bears vs Tigers 
Date & Time:
Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee
Streaming: TNT
Bears’ Offense Is Relentless
As Colgate would attest, the Baylor offense, when it gets going — which is often — is almost unstoppable. They’re a top-20 team in field goal percentage and shoot just a hair under 40% from three-point range as an NCAAB team, good for seventh in the country.
The Bears also get to the free throw line often (22.5 attempts per game) so they can hurt opposing teams in a variety of ways. Plus, it’s not like one or two Baylor players do the majority of the offensive damage; the rotation is deep and filled with dangerous players.
The Baylor vs Clemson spreads reflect how six Baylor players averaged double-digits points this season and while key reserve guard Langston Love will be out for this game (and probably will miss the entire NCAA Tournament) with an ankle injury. Baylor has more than enough options to make up for his absence.
In the Colgate game, six different Bears scored eight or more points led by Jalen Bridges with 23 and Ja’Kobe Walter with 19.
Clemson’s defense isn’t particularly impressive so it will be a tall task to expect the Tigers to expect them to hold Baylor to under 80 or so points (if they’re lucky).
Brad Brownell’s bunch is just 47th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rating metric and they don’t force many turnovers, which makes the task of slowing down Baylor much harder. They’ll need to lock in and get lucky, hoping that Baylor’s hot shooters cool down somewhat for there to be an upset on the college basketball scores today.
Clemson Needs Girard III To Step Up
Clemson has its own impressive group of top scorers, highlighted by PJ Hall, but how they played against New Mexico won’t suffice if the Tigers want to keep up with Baylor. Specifically, they need much more from Joe Girard III who went 2-for-12 from the field (2-for-8 from three) against New Mexico.
The Syracuse transfer has been one of the best three-point shooters in the country over the past few NCAAB seasons and has knocked down triples at a 42% clip this year for Clemson.
As the Tigers’ only consistent perimeter threat, he has to have a big NCAAB game for the Tigers to have a chance against Baylor. He can make a huge difference in how betting on the Baylor vs Clemson spreads winds up.
The Tigers are a pedestrian three-point shooting team outside of Girard III so it can be hard for them to make up deficits quickly as a slower-paced team with more interior-focused scorers. Girard III changes that, though, because when he can get into a rhythm, the floor opens right up for guys like Hall, Schieffelin and Chase Hunter.
Good Matchup for Baylor
Clemson is far from a walkover team but this particular matchup just seems to really favor the Bears. The Tigers would need a lot to work in their favor in order to pull off this upset even with the college basketball power rankings giving them a decent shot, at least from a betting perspective.
It’s not many points to cover, yet Baylor can hurt teams in so many ways and the Bears were firing on all cylinders on Friday while Clemson played well but got helped out by New Mexico’s top college basketball players that happened to be struggling.
Even with the crazy string of success by underdogs in the tourney so far, this seems like a game that might go chalk. Take Baylor to cover the 4.5-point spread and go with the over on the 145-point total as well. The Bears will score early and often.
For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
