Florida vs Kentucky Betting Trends: Wildcats Strong Over Team
Gators Look to Make Amends for Earlier Loss to 'Cats
The Florida Gators visit the No. 10 Kentucky Wildcats on Wednesday looking to avenge an 87-85 home loss earlier this month. Kentucky outscored the Gators 50-40 in the second half to take the victory.
The Wildcats enter the game with a 5-2 record in Southeastern Conference play. The Gators are 4-3 in conference.
Kentucky has Tennessee up next and the Volunteers could have been guilty to looking ahead in their loss to South Carolina. The Wildcats will have to stay focused on the Gators to prevent a similar occurrence from happening. The Florida vs Kentucky betting trends show the Wildcats are favored by 6 points and the total is a lofty 171.5 points.
Gators vs Wolfpack 
Day/Time:
Location: Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Gators Riding Winning Streak
The Florida Gators enter the game having won their last three NCAAB games to move to 14-6 on the season. Florida is just 8-11-1 against the point spread and 13-7 in totals. But the Florida vs Kentucky betting trends show the Gators are just 1-4 in totals in their last five games.
For the season, Florida is 3-6-1 ATS on the road and 6-4 in totals. But Florida has struggled as an underdog lately, going 0-2 ATS this year and 8-15 over the last three seasons.
The Gators are a good offensive team, but a poor shooting one. Florida is one of the best college basketball teams in the country getting offensive rebounds, which compensates for its shooting deficiencies. The Gators take decent care of the basketball and get to the foul line a bit.
Florida shoots just 49.5% on 2-pointers in SEC play and 32.1% on 3-pointers. The Gators do like to push the tempo, ranking No. 18 in the country in the KenPom adjusted pace ratings.
The biggest problem for the Gators has been the defense. It’s bad and the pace doesn’t help. The Gators are No. 13 in the SEC in defensive efficiency. Florida allows 54.5% shooting on 2-pointers in conference play, but is better defending the outside. Teams shoot 31.1% on 3-pointers. The Gators are pretty solid in not allowing offensive rebounds, but haven’t forced many turnovers.
Wildcats Race Up-and-Down the Court
Kentucky plays at the fastest pace on any team in the SEC. So it’s no surprise to see the Florida vs Kentucky betting trends showing the Wildcats are 14-5 in totals this season. In the SEC, Kentucky has gone 5-2 in totals. The Wildcats are 11-7-1 against the spread this season and 9-2 in home totals.
As long as Kentucky takes care of business against the teams it should beat, it will find itself with a decent spot on the March Madness bracket. But the Wildcats can’t get complacent or get caught looking ahead.
Kentucky is averaging 88.5 points per game and 93.7 points at home. The Wildcats are No. 9 in the nation in the KenPom offensive efficiency ratings and No. 4 in the SEC.
The ‘Cats are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country at 40.2%. That percentage drops a little bit to 37.2% in SEC play. Kentucky keeps turnovers to a minimum, although it isn’t particularly strong on the offensive boards.
Defensively, Kentucky is pretty average in SEC play. The Wildcats are allowing the opposition to shoot 50.2% on 2-pointers and 32.4% from 3-point range. Kentucky has done an average job at preventing offensive rebounds, but haven’t forced a ton of turnovers.
The Wildcats are coming off one of their best defensive games of the year, holding Arkansas to 57 points in a 63-57 road victory last game. But the Florida vs Kentucky betting trends show Kentucky is 5-16 ATS the last three years after holding a team to 60 or fewer points. The Wildcats are 9-12 in totals in those games.
What to Expect
This is one of those games on the NCAA basketball schedule where both teams look like they want to play at a quick pace. Both teams struggled from 3-point range in the first meeting and there were still 172 points scored. This will be the 11th game this season with a total of 170 or higher. The previous games are 4-6 in totals.
The Gators are capable of playing at a more deliberate pace. Their average time per possession has gone up from 15.7 to 17.1 seconds since the start of SEC play. The Wildcats take an average of 15.9 seconds per possession in conference games.
This one should ultimately come down to 3-point shooting. It’s the strength of Kentucky’s offense, but also the strength of the Florida defense. The Gators don’t shoot the 3-pointer that well and the ‘Cats aren’t bad at defending the outside shot.
Who to Bet On?
The point spread in this one might be a shade on the high side. But the Wildcats are a solid team at Rupp Arena and the Gators haven’t done a whole lot on the road. Still, it’s never easy laying that many points to a quality team in a revenge situation.
The Florida vs Kentucky betting trends on the total are pointing towards the over. But this is the highest total posted between these two teams since at least 2006. With the Gators paying a little more attention to defense lately, the value here is on the under 171.5. Take the under for one of your picks and parlays NCAAB on Wednesday.
For NCAA basketball betting lines, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
