Houston Leapfrogs, Kansas as Big 12 Favorite, BYU in Mix
2024 Big 12 Championship Odds: Houston Up to +150, Kansas +300
Conference realignment continues to shake up college basketball, and there’s seemingly no end in sight. The Big 12 has been no stranger to movement. While it recently added BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, its prepared to lose two of its signature programs to the SEC in Oklahoma and Texas.
Given the ever-changing nature of college athletics, we’d be remiss not to expect more changes in the coming years.
While a majority of these moves are largely done with an eye on college football, they also play a huge role in changing the dynamics on the hardwood. Look no further than Houston, which has been quick to adjust after finding big success in the American Athletic Conference.
How are the other newcomers faring? With that in mind, let’s break down the updated 2024 Big 12 Championship odds for Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF.
Houston (+150)
It’s been a smooth transition from the AAC for Kelvin Sampson and Co. The country’s lone remaining unbeaten, Houston is off to an impressive 14-0 start. The Houston Cougars have yet to play a ranked opponent and thus still lack a signature victory, raising questions about just how good they really are. Their best wins are over Utah, Dayton and Texas A&M. The Cougars also still only have one true road win (Xavier) but will be tested soon enough, with games this week at Iowa State and TCU.
Still, oddsmakers are buying the hype.
After opening at +350 to win the Big 12, the third-ranked Cougars have leapfrogged perennial powerhouse Kansas as a +150 favorite to win the conference. Despite being ranked ahead of Houston in the AP poll, the No. 2 Jayhawks now find themselves at +300. Houston is also among the favorites on a national level, priced +280 to make the Final Four and +1100 to win the NCAAB title. Only two schools currently have better odds to win March Madness: Purdue (+900) and Arizona (+1000).
Is there a legitimate reason to buy in? Well, for one, Houston has easily the best defense in the country. The Cougars rank No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, turnover percentage, 2-point defense, block percentage and steal percentage. Only two opponents have topped 60 points. The Cougars also lead the nation in average points differential at plus-27.
Houston has been favored in every game this season, by as few as 7 points and as many as 34. The Cougars have covered in three straight and are 8-5-1 ATS.
BYU (+650)
As is the case with Houston, many are asking, is BYU for real? Unranked to start the season, BYU has climbed to No. 12 in the AP poll. The Cougars are 12-2 but fell flat in Saturday’s Big 12 opener, losing 71-60 to Cincinnati at home.
BYU flashed its potential out of the gate, beating then-No. 17 San Diego State on Nov. 10. It also beat NC State in Las Vegas.
As such, BYU has made one of the biggest jumps on the Big 12 oddsboard. Its 2024 Big 12 Championship odds have soared from +1600 to +650. At the moment, only Houston and Kansas are bigger favorites. The Cougars are also +650 to reach the Final Four and +2800 to win the national championship, one of 12 schools with better than 30/1 odds.
BYU hasn’t made the NCAAB Tournament since 2021 when it was part of the WCC, but that seems destined to change. The Cougars have been potent offensively, ranking sixth in scoring and first in assists per game. They also own the second-best average points differential (plus-26).
Five different Cougars are scoring in double figures, led by guards Jaxson Robinson (15.2 PPG) and junior guard Trevin Knell (12.9). That balanced depth should bode well for the Cougars as they enter a month with games against No. 18 Baylor, No. 3 Houston and No. 20 Texas.
BYU has been especially profitable for bettors, going 11-3 ATS. Its 78.6% cover rate is among the best in the country.
Cincinnati (+4000)
Cincinnati still isn’t gaining much respect in the polls despite its 12-2 start, but Saturday’s victory over BYU certainly garners attention. Prior to that, the Bearcats’ only Power Five win came against Georgia Tech.
The Bearcats are still something of a longshot, with their 2024 Big 12 Championship odds having gone from +4500 to +4000. Ironically, they have better odds to make the Final Four (+3500).
Cincinnati’s gone four straight seasons without an NCAA Tournament appearance in the AAC, but that could change this year. The Bearcats climbed to No. 24 in the NET rankings after beating BYU, and will have plenty of opportunities to continue moving up the charts with upcoming games against No. 20 Texas and No. 18 Baylor.
The Bearcats aren’t overly explosive despite playing at a decent pace but have been dominant on the glass. They rank fifth in rebounding percentage, including ninth on the offensive end.
Cincinnati has covered in just one of its last five games and is 6-8 ATS.
UCF (+20000)
UCF began the season as a +25000 longshot to win the Big 12. Those odds have shrunk only slightly, with the Knights now priced +20000. At the moment, only two schools are bigger underdogs: Oklahoma State (+25000) and West Virginia (+30000).
The Knights are 9-4, however they still don’t own any notable wins and are coming off a 15-point loss to Kansas State to begin Big 12 play. With their next four games against ranked opponents, starting Wednesday against No. 2 Kansas, things are bound to get worse before they get better in the NCAAB standings.
For what it’s worth, UCF went only 32-40 during its last four seasons of AAC play and hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2019.
Ball State transfer Jaylin Sellers is UCF’s top scorer, averaging 17.8 points to go with 1.6 steals. Darius Johnson is averaging 13.9 points.
Complicating matters, UCF has been difficult to peg for bettors. The Knights are 6-7 ATS, including 3-3 over their last six games. They’re also 7-6 against the Over/Under but have gone Under the total in five of their previous seven contests.
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