San Diego State vs Alabama March Madness Betting Preview

Friday’s Sweet 16 game featuring San Diego State vs Alabama features two of the best defensive teams in college. But both offenses can put the ball in the basket. So something will have to give in this one.

Alabama is favored by 7 and the total is 136 in this one, which will be played at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky. The Crimson Tide is -300 on the moneyline. San Diego State is +250 if you like the Aztecs to win outright. The game will be played at 6:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast by TBS.

San Diego State: Aztecs Overwhelm Furman

The Aztecs weren’t all that impressive in their opening win over Charleston. But San Diego State came out and did a number on Furman in the second round. That’s what you would expect from a No. 5 seed playing a No. 13 seed. Furman’s win over Virginia made sure San Diego State was focused and the Aztecs pulled away toward the end of the first half and the game was essentially over.

The Aztecs led 39-25 at halftime and 60-37 halfway through the second half. San Diego State held the Paladins to 41.7% shooting on 2-pointers and just 23.1% on 3-pointers. The Aztecs had a 41-24 edge in rebounds, grabbing 10 offensive rebounds. Four San Diego State players scored in double figures, as nine players played 16 or more minutes.

Alabama: Crimson Tide Pulls Away From Maryland

After Alabama cruised past Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the first round, everyone expected the Tide to have a much tougher time with Maryland. They did, at least for a little while, but Alabama’s margin of victory was one point more than it was over the Islanders. Alabama didn’t have its best shooting day but still won handily. That’s why they’re one of the best NCAA basketball teams in the nation and the overall No. 1 seed.

The Tide held Maryland to 39.1% shooting on 2-pointers and 12.5% on 3-pointers. The Terrapins didn’t help themselves at the foul line, going just 12 for 21. Alabama had a 44-32 rebounding advantage. The Crimson Tide looked like the team that led the Southeastern Conference in the regular season NCAAB standings and then won the conference tournament.

Handicapping the Game

San Diego State vs Alabama features two teams in Ken Pomeroy’s top five in adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. Alabama is No. 3 and the Aztecs are No. 5. The Tide do get penalized a bit for not forcing many turnovers. But they don’t need them. Alabama is No. 3 in 3-point defense and No. 1 in 2-point defense. It doesn’t matter if you get the ball on turnovers or defensive rebounds. So, you can make a case for Alabama being the best defensive team in the nation.

The Aztecs are No. 4 against the 3-pointer but just No. 154 against the 2-pointer. It doesn’t take a genius to see that’s where you want to attack San Diego State. That’s also where Alabama is at its best, ranking No. 34 in 2-point shooting and No. 172 in 3-point shooting.

San Diego State is ranked No. 69 in adjusted offensive efficiency despite not being a great shooting team. The Aztecs get offensive rebounds and keep their turnovers down. But they are going to have to make some shots here or it will get ugly.

San Diego State vs Alabama will likely come down to the Aztecs and their ability to stop Alabama’s inside game. If San Diego State can hold the Tide in check, this one could very well be a close game. If Alabama can hit from the inside, this one will likely be another easy Alabama win.

The total on this one seems about where it should be. It can’t really go any lower due to both teams having good offenses. That makes it a bit tough to play the over/under. The No. 1 seeds are falling in this year’s tournament, but it’s probably not going to happen in this one. The Tide are better than average shooting free throws, which could help cover the spread in a relatively close game. Look for Alabama to keep winning in style and take the Crimson Tide -7. (Odds change frequently, be sure to check for the most up to date changes.)
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