Will UC Irvine Win The Big West Tournament?
The Top Two Seeds Have The Highest 2024 Big West Conference Odds
The 2024 Big West Conference Championship will begin on March 13 as the eight teams in the conference battle for an automatic bid into the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Last season, No. 2. seed UC Santa Barbara won the Big West over Cal State Fullerton for its second title in three seasons. However, UC Santa Barbara is only a 7th seed this year and will have a long journey ahead if it wants to win back-to-back titles.
Take a look at the 2024 Big West Conference odds below.
| Team | Odds *Last Updated: 3/11/2024 |
|---|---|
| UC Irvine | -220 |
| UC Davis | +350 |
| Hawaii | +750 |
| Long Beach State | +950 |
| UC Santa Barbara | +1200 |
| UC Riverside | +4500 |
| Cal State Bakersfield | +5000 |
| Cal State Northridge | +8000 |
Big West Bracket Format
The Big West has given the top four seeds at least one bye game. Meanwhile, No. 1 seed UC Irvine and No. 2 seed UC Davis are already locked into the semifinals.
The first round will feature No. 5 UC Riverside vs. No. 8 seeded Cal State Bakersfield. The winner of that game will play No. 4 Long Beach State, and then the winner of that game will play in the semifinals against UC Irvine.
The same format will take place in the bottom portion of the bracket. No. 6 seeded UC Santa Barbara will face No. 7 Cal State Northridge. The winner of that game will go to the quarterfinals against No. 3 Hawaii. Whoever wins that game will take on No. 2 UC Davis.
This is ultimately why UC Irvine has the highest probability of winning the Tournament. They’ll only need to win two consecutive college basketball games to do so. The Big West likes to give the best regular-season NCAAB teams the highest chance of winning the Tournament, which more leagues should probably do.
As a reminder, UC San Diego finished second in the conference with a 15-5 record. However, UC San Diego remains ineligible for postseason play in the Big West.
Best Value On The Board
UC Irvine Anteaters (-220)
We don’t usually recommend backing any team at -220 to win a tournament before it begins. However, as noted above, the Big West gives their best teams the best chance of winning the tournament.
UC Irvine went 17-3 in conference play. Two of those losses were by four points or less. One came in overtime, and all three were on the road.
The Anteaters had the best defense in the Big West this season, holding Big West opponents to a 44.8% effective field goal percentage. Opponents shot just 43.4% from inside the arc to give UC Irvine a defensive efficiency of 95.6.
While UC Irvine has no prolific scorers, the defense makes up for it. Plus, even without a top scorer, the Anteaters have nailed 79.3% from the foul line and have added an offensive efficiency that ranks second in the league when playing other Big West opponents.
The world would enjoy watching the Anteaters in the NCAA Tournament.
UC Davis Aggies (+350)
UC Davis is a little streaky. The Aggies finished the college basketball regular season 19-12 and added 14 wins in conference play.
The Aggies were one of three teams to actually knock off UC Irvine. They also finished out the year with three consecutive wins despite two being on the road.
UC Davis was second in the Big West in defense. The Aggies led the league in turnovers, earning over 20% of turnovers per game when playing Big West opponents. The team also held opponents to 30.6% from three and added 11.9% of steals per game.
However, it’s very easy to add offensive rebounds against UC Davis, which is the one area where they’ve struggled on the defensive end.
Meanwhile, on offense, the Aggies have the best college basketball player in the conference. Elijah Pepper scored 20.5 points per game, shooting 41.8% from the field. He also grabbed 4.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game this year. The senior is the league’s best scorer.
In their last game of the season against Long Beach State, he only took five shots and still ended up with 17 points, thanks to many trips to the foul line. He can score in so many ways.
To win tournaments, you need a player like Pepper on your squad. UC Irvine lacks that.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+750)
This tournament is top-heavy. We’ve had many previews where we’ve taken chances on long shots. In the Big West, it’s way more unlikely.
Hawaii is the No. 3 seed and must play in the quarterfinals before the semis. However, they’re one of the more complete teams in the conference.
In Big West play, Hawaii finished fourth in offensive and defensive efficiency. They’re above average in both areas despite not being the best.
Hawaii is really good at limiting second chances and offensive rebounds. The Rainbow Warriors also shoot 55% from the field inside the arc.
It’s hard to stay consistent from downtown all the time, but it’s much easier to stay consistent inside the arc and around the rim.
Hawaii is dominant down low. If they clean up the defensive glass and continue to feed the ball inside, Hawaii could be a real threat to win the NCAA men’s basketball bracket for the conference tournament.
If you don’t want to lay -220 on UC Irvine, consider adding Hawaii as one of your NCAAB picks. If anything, Hawaii would have to face UC Irvine in the Finals if the Rainbow Warriors got there. You could always hedge with the 2024 Big West Conference odds at that point.
For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
