Alabama vs Mississippi State Preview: Crimson Tide Favorites Once Again

Alabama Goes After Its 16th Consecutive Win Against Mississippi State

Alabama heads to Starkville for its first road SEC game of the season with the Alabama vs Mississippi State preview having Alabama as a double-digit favorite against the Bulldogs for the ninth consecutive meeting.

Alabama has won 15 consecutive games against Mississippi State with just two of those games being decided by single digits. The Crimson Tide has covered in seven of the last eight games against Mississippi State.

Alabama has only covered against the college football odds twice in 10 games as the road underdog since the start of the 2021 season. During that stretch, Mississippi State has covered just once in five games as the home underdog.

The college football betting lines list Alabama as a 14.5-point favorite.

Alabama has won two straight games since losing at home to Texas while Mississippi State is coming off a 37-30 loss to South Carolina as a six-point underdog.

Alabama is 12th in the Associated Press Top 25 poll and 11th in the American Football Coaches Association poll, moving up one spot over the last week.

When looking at the college football championship odds, Alabama is tied for 11th at +4000 with Mississippi State well back at +50000.

Alabama’s Offense Is Stuck in Neutral

It is not very often that Alabama ranks last in the SEC in any positive category and especially in total offense. The Crimson Tide’s average of 364.8 yards per game is the lowest in the conference and they are only 12th out of 14 teams in scoring offense. Keep that in mind when it comes to the Alabama vs Mississippi State preview.

The Crimson Tide has 24 points or less in each of the last three games and that hasn’t happened since the last three games of the 2017 season.

Jalen Milroe very quietly has the third-best passer rating in the SEC and he is averaging more yards per attempt than Bryce Young did a season ago. The three touchdown passes and three interceptions in his last two games is a bit concerning.

The total has gone over in four of Alabama’s last six games.

A Change in Philosophy

During the tenure of the late Mike Leach, the Bulldogs led the SEC in passing attempts in each of the previous three seasons and usually completed more passes than more of their conference rivals have attempted.

Mississippi State is ninth in passing attempts among SEC teams this season and there is almost a 50-50 split between passing and rushing attempts so this game will have a different feel to it. That could play a role when it comes to the Alabama vs Mississippi State preview.

A bigger concern comes on defense as Mississippi State is ahead of only South Carolina in yards allowed and yards per play given up.

The total has finished under in four of Mississippi State’s last six games.

Last Meeting

Alabama scored on four straight possessions in the first half on the way to a 24-0 lead at halftime. Mississippi State avoided the shutout on a 1-yard run by Jo’quavious Marks on the final play of the game. Alabama’s 30-6 victory still enabled the Crimson Tide to cover as a 21-point favorite.

It was the fifth straight Alabama-Mississippi State game to go under the total with Alabama outscoring Mississippi State 182-22 in those games.

What to Expect

One of these days the Alabama offense is due to get going. Will it happen on Saturday?

Only Vanderbilt has surrendered more plays from scrimmage of at least 40 yards than Mississippi State among SEC teams so there will be opportunities for Alabama to make some big plays.

When looking at the NCAAF news, Mississippi State running back Jo’Quavious Marks is questionable and that would be a huge loss if he can’t go considering that he is second in the SEC in rushing yards.

Linebacker Deontae Lawson is questionable for Alabama.

Alabama has covered in just one of its last seven games. However, the Crimson Tide has won its last seven games at Mississippi State.

The total of 46.5 would be the lowest for a Mississippi State-Alabama game since 2012. Since that game, eight of the last 10 games finished under the total.

Only seven Week 5 games involving teams from the Power-5 conferences have lower totals.

The Bulldogs have covered in just one of their last seven games versus SEC teams and are 6-12 outright against SEC West teams.

The recent matchups between Alabama and Mississippi State have not been competitive so that might not bode well for the Bulldogs to defeat Alabama for the first time since 2007.

For more NCAAF news, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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