Alabama vs South Florida Odds: Tide Looks to Rebound

Alabama visits South Florida on Saturday, no doubt looking to erase the sting of losing to Texas last week. Alabama has been solid the week after a loss. But since Alabama doesn’t lose often, it’s a rather small sample size. USF is coming off a 38-24 victory over Florida A&M, which is a game the Bulls should have won by a bigger margin. Especially since they were +5 in the turnover margin. The Alabama vs South Florida odds have the Crimson Tide favored by 32.5 and the total is 61.

Alabama’s title dreams took a definite hit last week. The Crimson Tide aren’t out of the playoff picture. But they can’t afford to lose again, either. That won’t be easy with Alabama’s college football schedule still showing games against Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU, among others. But if any team can win out, Alabama would have to be thrown into the mix.

Alabama cruised to the point spread cover in the season-opening 56-7 win over Middle Tennessee State. The Crimson Tide was favored by 39.5 and sent the game over the total by themselves. Last week’s loss to the Longhorns came as 7.5-point favorites and that one went over the total of 53.5.

Quarterback Jalen Milroe is playing too tentative and taking too many sacks. He’s been caught behind the scrimmage seven times. But he also leads Alabama with 92 rushing yards. The Crimson Tide don’t have a featured back, but have used five different running backs so far.

Defensively, Alabama was good against Middle Tennessee State. But the Crimson Tide allowed 454 total yards to Texas and was unable to overcome their spotty defense play. Quinn Ewers threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns. Alabama has to do a better job of stopping the opposition.

USF Still Learning New System

There was plenty of change at South Florida in the offseason and the players are still trying to lean Alex Golesh’s system. The Bulls were defeated by Western Kentucky 41-24 as 13.5-point underdogs to open the season. Last week, USF won 38-24 as 19.5-point favorites. But the Bulls were outgained 393-342. USF won the turnover battle 5-0 or there could have been a big upset in Tampa last week. Against Western Kentucky, USF was -3 in turnovers and lost despite gaining 540 yards.

The Bulls have gotten fair play from quarterback Byrum Brown, who has rushed for four TDs and thrown for four more. He’s completing just 51.5% of his passes. His 183 rushing yards lead the Bulls, as USF has rushed for 482 yards in their two games.

Defensively, USF hasn’t been very good. But they haven’t been completely horrible. The Bulls could use a little more from the defensive players, but this may not be the week it happens.

What to Expect

The first thing to expect is a much better defensive effort from the Crimson Tide. Dating back to 2010, the average NCAAF football scores for Alabama after a loss are 32.9-11.4. The Tide has gone 2-11 in totals in that span, but are pretty much a .500 team against NCAA football odds, going 7-7 against the spread.

The Crimson Tide needs Milroe to get a little confidence back and the USF defense could be willing participants, as they’re not that impressive. Alabama could look to feature one or two running backs and see if they can take the top spot. But don’t expect the Crimson Tide to come out and make numerous changes.

The Bulls just saw the way to beat Alabama is through the air. But USF’s passing attack is nowhere near being as good as Texas. The best chance USF has to keep it close is to try and slow the game down and gain some yardage on the ground.

Who to Bet On?

The Alabama vs South Florida odds of Alabama -32.5 could be a bit low. The Tide shouldn’t have any problems on either side of the ball. Alabama is bigger and stronger on the line of scrimmage, so the Tide should try to run the ball. That will allow Milroe to throw less, but be put in favorable situations.

The Alabama vs South Florida odds on the total of 61 sounds about right. But this one could probably go over the total if the Crimson Tide really wanted it to. But with No. 17 Ole Miss on deck, the Tide should be concerned with getting a win and getting out of Florida. Alabama’s 2-11 totals mark after a loss is too hard to pass up, so will take this one to go under 61.

For NCAAF news, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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