Penn State vs Illinois Preview: Nittany Lions Following Allar’s Lead

The Illinois Fighting Illini open Big Ten Conference play Saturday when they host the seventh-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions.

After opening a 13.5-point favorite, Penn State is now up to -14.5 (-110), including -625 to win outright. Illinois, meanwhile, is +14.5 (-110) against the spread and +485 on the moneyline. The projected total has remained steady at 48.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under).

Will the Nittany Lions stay hot? Or can Illinois rebound and pick up a marquee win? Read on as we break down both teams and give our pick to win in our Penn State vs Illinois preview.

Nittany Lions Off to Hot Start

Penn State may not be as hyped as Big Ten rivals Michigan or Ohio State, but the Nittany Lions are proving they belong in the same class. The Nittany Lions blitzed their first two opponents, beating West Virginia 38-15 and FCS product Delaware 63-7 to move to 2-0 against the spread.

For the Nittany Lions, it all starts — and ends — with Drew Allar. The sophomore has looked the part in his first couple of starts at quarterback, completing 78.2% of his passes for 529 yards and four touchdowns. In doing so, Allar, who began the season with just 60 career attempts, has seen his Heisman Trophy odds jump to +2000.

The Nittany Lions have been beneficiaries of his strong play, climbing to No. 7 in the AP Top 25 NCAA football rankings. They’ve been there for three weeks now, breathing down the necks of both the Wolverines and Buckeyes. It’s a familiar position for James Franklin’s squad, in the thick of the (early, early) conversation for the College Football Playoff. This was the fifth time in seven seasons that Penn State was a preseason Top 15 team.

That said, the Nittany Lions have rarely been equipped with quarterbacks as talented as Allar, a former five-star prospect who was named Ohio’s Mr. Football in 2021. Under his watch, the Nittany Lions are +450 to win the Big Ten, slightly behind No. 2 Michigan (+120) and No. 6 Ohio State (+220), and +325 to make the CFP.

Illinois Trying to Recapture Dominance on D

On the heels of a breakthrough season under Bret Bielema, the Illinois Fighting Illini have gotten off to an inauspicious start. Most troubling is the performance of their renowned defense, which allowed the fewest points (12.3) and second-fewest yards (263.8) on average in FBS last season, according to college football scores.

After edging Toledo 30-28 on a last-second field goal, the Fighting Illini fell 34-23 to Kansas last week. And it wasn’t even that close, as the Jayhawks opened a 34-7 lead and finished 539 total yards. In the process, Illinois dropped to 0-2 ATS.

Now, Illinois did lose a significant amount of talent defensively. Most notably, defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, a Broyles Award finalist, took the Purdue head-coaching job. It also had three starters selected in the NFL Draft, including cornerback Devon Witherspoon, who went fifth overall to Seattle.

Despite those departures, Illinois came into the season with modest expectations. The Fighting Illini were projected for 6.5 wins, enough to get back to a bowl. And while that remains the goal, the Fighting Illini certainly look more vulnerable than they have in the recent past.

What’s encouraging for Illinois is the performance of Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer, who has seamlessly taken over as the No. 1 quarterback. He’s completed 68.5% of his attempts while also rushing for 139 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Betting Trends

Penn State has been profitable for many bettors of late, with a record of 8-0-1 ATS over its last nine games. The total has also gone Over in eight of the Nittany Lions’ last 10 games, including six straight on the road. Meanwhile, Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven contests. That includes a 1-4 mark ATS at home. That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Penn State vs Illinois preview.

For NCAAF predictions, betting odds, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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