Auburn vs Texas A&M preview: Will a Third Straight Auburn-Texas A&M Game Land Under the Total?

Aggies Are Favored to Hand Visiting Auburn Its First Loss of the 2023 Season

When the 2023 college football schedule came out and those looking at the Auburn vs Texas A&M preview would have predicted that the host Aggies would be the undefeated team heading into the Week 4 matchup.

Neither team had the most challenging opponent in Week 3 with Texas A&M rolling to a 47-3 win over Louisiana Monroe as a 36.5-point favorite with Auburn topping Samford 45-13 even though the Tigers failed to cover as 37-point favorites.

Auburn has won four of the last six meetings against Texas A&M and that includes a 13-10 home win in 2022 when the Tigers were favored by 1.5 points.

Texas A&M (+1600) is tied for fourth in the odds to win the SEC title with Auburn tied for seventh at +4000.

In the odds to win the national title, both Auburn and Texas A&M are priced at +15000.

Neither Auburn nor Texas A&M are in the top 25 in the NCAA football rankings in either national poll. Auburn is ninth and Texas A&M 10th among the other teams receiving votes in the coaches’ poll with Auburn also picking up a vote in the Associated Press poll.

Tigers Offense Trending In the Right Direction

Auburn was 2-1-1 against the college football odds as a road underdog a season ago with all four of the Tigers’ true road games finishing over the total in 2022. Keep that in mind when looking at the Auburn vs Texas A&M preview.

Auburn’s offense is averaging 50 more yards per game than it did a season ago while going from allowing 395 yards to 264 through the first three games.

A concern for Auburn on offense is that only 10 of its 15 drives into the red zone have resulted in touchdowns. There have also been 14 turnovers in the first three Auburn games, seven takeaways by the Tigers and seven giveaways.

Four of Auburn’s last five games against teams from the SEC West finished over the total.

Making Themselves Right At Home

Texas A&M was just 1-4 against the spread as a home favorite during the 2022 season. The Aggies have already covered in its first two home games this year and that could factor into the Auburn vs Texas A&M preview.

Things could be a little more challenging on Saturday after the first two games at Kyle Field this season have come against New Mexico and Louisiana Monroe.

Penalties have been a problem for the Aggies averaging two more accepted penalties in 2023 than in 2022.

The Aggies do lead the SEC in third-down defense, allowing seven first downs on 34 third-down plays.

The total has gone over in four of Texas A&M’s last five games against SEC teams.

Last Meeting

When it comes to the college football scores, Auburn got its lone touchdown late in the first quarter and held the Aggies out of the end zone until 1:33 remained in the 13-10 win.

The teams were a combined 10-for-33 on third downs and that played a role in the game headed under the total.

It was the second straight year that just 23 points were scored in a matchup between the Tigers and the Aggies.

After none of the previous four games in the series finished under the total, each of the last two meetings came nowhere near the 48.5 and 49.5 point totals.

What to Expect

Texas A&M has lost four of its last five games against Auburn and is favored to reverse that trend when the Tigers come to College Station on Saturday afternoon.

The 1.5-point total is the closest in this series since the teams became SEC rivals in 2011.

The 52.5-point total is the highest for an Auburn-Texas A&M game since 2016. Keep that in mind when it comes to the best college football bets.

Auburn has won just one of its last seven games against SEC teams and is 1-6 in its last seven games on the road.

While the Tigers are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven Week 4 matchups, they are just 1-8 against the spread in the last nine games played in September.

The total has gone over in six of Texas A&M’s last nine games.

While Texas A&M ranks second in the SEC with 55 plays from scrimmage of at least 10 yards, only Florida has fewer plays of 30 yards or longer this season. Auburn has allowed just one play of 40 yards or more on its first three games.

Noah Thomas, one of three Texas A&M games with at least 10 catches this season, is questionable. Auburn linebacker Austin Keys, who had three tackles in last year’s game against the Aggies, is out with a thumb injury.

Temperatures are expected to be in the low 80s with mostly sunny conditions at kickoff so there should be few weather concerns in the game.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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