Citrus Bowl Betting Odds: LSU vs Purdue
Tigers Huge Favorites Over Boilermakers
The LSU Tigers are going to be huge favorites over a decimated Purdue squad when the two teams meet in the Citrus Bowl. The Tigers were favored by a touchdown before the Boilermakers started jumping ship. Everybody from Purdue’s head coach to starting QB will miss the game. The Tigers aren’t completely unscathed from opt-outs and the transfer portal. But no team was hit harder than Purdue.
Game Information
LSU Tigers (9-4) vs Purdue (8-5)
Date & Time & Streaming:
Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Streaming: ABC
Huge Line Move on Tigers
The Citrus Bowl betting odds opened LSU-6.5 and the number quickly went to Tigers -7. Once Purdue’s better players started to opt-out of the line continued to move upwards. LSU is now favored by 14.5 points. The Tigers were 7-6 against the spread, while Purdue backers were on the wrong side of the NCAAF scores more often than not. Purdue is just 5-8 against the spread.
The LSU vs Purdue odds on the total saw the number open at 56.5 and its holding pretty steady at 56. Purdue was 3-1 in totals when the number was 56 or higher, while the Tigers were 3-2.
The Citrus Bowl betting odds also showed a steep increase in the moneyline. The Tigers opened -320 and the line is now LSU -550.
LSU Well-Balanced Offensively
The LSU Tigers like to keep opposing defenses off-balance and can run or throw. LSU runs the ball 37.3 times per game and attempt 34 passes. The majority of the Tigers’ yards come through the air but they’re not adverse to taking what the defense gives them.
The key cog for the Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is progressing nicely from his injury and should be ready to go here. Daniels is vital in the LSU offense, throwing for more than 2,700 yards and 16 touchdowns. He led the NCAAF team with 818 rushing yards and 11 TDs.
Had he not been sacked 43 times his yardage would be higher. Backup QB Garrett Nussmeier looked good at times but the Tigers need Daniels to be in there to be at their best. LSU splits carries between three running backs. Josh Williams, Noah Cain and John Emery combined to rush for more than 1,200 yards and score 19 touchdowns.
There’s no need to change what’s working. Wideout Jaray Jenkins is sitting the game out and he led the Tigers with six receiving TDs.
Defensively, the Tigers are better than they credit for, allowing 23.7 points to teams that averaged 30.6. LSU allowed 4.3 yards per carry but its foes averaged 5.1 yards per carry on the season. The Tigers held teams to 57.2% pass completions.
The Tigers allowed more than 250 rushing yards three times during the season, which happen to be the three games LSU lost. Fortunately for the Tigers, Purdue doesn’t run the ball very well, although without their quarterback, the Boilermakers may stay on the ground more than normal.
Boilermakers Hit Hard With Defections
If Purdue was at full strength, this could be a decent ballgame. But the Boilermakers aren’t close to having everybody in the line-up, which is reflected in the Citrus Bowl betting odds. Things start at the top for Purdue, where coach Jeff Brohm is going to Louisville. His brother, Brian Brohm, will be the team’s acting coach for this game.
Quarterback Aidan O’Connell who threw for 3,490 yards and 22 touchdowns decided to opt-out of the game. Backup Austin Burton attempted 32 passes this NCAAF season, with most of those coming against Florida Atlantic.
While he looked good for the most part, there’s a huge difference between throwing against FAU and LSU. Charlie Jones and his 110 receptions and 12 receiving TDs will be sitting out, along with second-leading receiver, tight end Payne Durham, who grabbed eight TDs.
That’s 20 of Purdue’s 25 receiving touchdowns sitting the game out. Leading rusher Devin Mockobee could see more carries than he’s used to, especially if Purdue can manage to keep things close early on.
The Purdue defense isn’t quite as good as its numbers suggest. While Purdue allowed 24.6 points, their foes averaged the same 24.6 points, so the Boilermakers allow what an average defense would. Purdue allowed 4.0 yards per carry to teams that averaged 4.0 yards per carry.
The Boilermakers did hold teams to a lower passing percentage than they averaged, but allowed more yards per attempt.
Is Value Gone on Tigers?
The Citrus Bowl betting odds are probably pretty settled right now. With the Tigers favored more than two touchdowns, it’s hard to see the number move much more. Purdue may be outclassed here but they’ll come out and play hard. They still have some decent college football players who will be in the game. But that’s probably not going to be good enough to beat LSU.
For bettors, the question is have the Citrus Bowl betting odds moved too much? Asking the Tigers to win by more than a touchdown is one thing. Asking them to win by more than two touchdowns is asking a whole lot more.
LSU is expected to score more points due to Purdue being short handed, the Tigers won’t be looking to run up the score.
It’s a bit surprising to see the total hold pretty steady at 56. Purdue is going to be without a lot of offensive talent. Even if LSU is expected to score more points due to Purdue being short handed, the Tigers won’t be looking to run up the score. If LSU gets a comfortable lead in the second half, it would be a shock to see the team work on the clock. The under probably holds the most value of any possible wager.
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