College Football: Expected Totals for NCAA Football SEC Wins

Evaluating Which SEC Teams Will Surpass Their Expected Win Total

The college football season is just a few short weeks away and it’s safe to say that SEC fans are counting down the days until kickoff. Year in and year out, the SEC proves why it’s one of the top conferences in college football. A team from the SEC has won the championship in each of the last three seasons, which means they’re putting up enough quality NCAA football SEC wins in the regular season to make it into the College Football Playoffs. Something tells us this year won’t be much different.

Let’s dive into the SEC division standings and analyze where each team sits in terms of expected wins.

Georgia

After winning last year’s National Championship, the Georgia Bulldogs own the highest projected win total in the SEC this season at 11.5. That means that for the over to hit, Georgia would have to finish a perfect 12-0. They accomplished that feat last season, so it’s definitely doable, but with Oregon in Week 1, we’d feel better having a little margin of error on our side. Under 11.5 (-120)

Alabama Crimson Tide

It’s no surprise that the bar is set high for Alabama this season. After falling to Georgia in last year’s national championship game, the Tide are going to be hungry to get back to the top of college football. They return their two best players in quarterback Bryce Young and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. With their Heisman-winning quarterback back under center, Alabama should be favored in every game. They should also win every game. This one is easy, take the over. Over 11 (-140)

Texas A&M

The Aggies come into this season with high expectations after securing the No. 1 recruiting class in 2022. Fans believe this is finally the year that head coach Jimbo Fisher puts everything together and makes a serious run at the college football playoffs. But not so fast! This is one line that is hard to figure out because whether Texas A&M goes over or stays under this number has more to do with their opponents. There are a lot of unknowns when it comes to teams like LSU and Arkansas. You’ve got to imagine the Aggies will lose to Alabama this season after beating them last year. Nick Saban is not going to let that happen two seasons in a row. With a fairly tough schedule and new-look teams in the conference, we like Fisher and company to stay under their total. Under 8.5 (+140)

Tennessee, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Arkansas

These three teams all sit in the middle of the pack when it comes to NCAA football SEC wins, with a total of 7.5 heading into the season. They all have solid offenses led by quarterbacks with a lot of upsides. Will Levis returns under center for Kentucky while Hendon Hooker will be the play caller for Tennessee. Ole Miss has a quarterback battle on its hands between Jaxson Dart and Luke Altmyer, but both are very capable options.

Schedule-wise, we think Ole Miss will have the easiest time hitting their win total and would take their over 7.5 (-140). Outside of LSU, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina, the Volunteers shouldn’t have a problem with the rest of their schedule so we’d also play the over 7.5 (-170). Kentucky on the other hand has a brutal road slate on top of having to play Georgia at home. Under 7.5 (+105)

Florida Gators

The Florida Gators enter into a new era of football this season under former Louisiana head coach Billy Napier. With their win total for this season at 7.5, odds seem that Napier can turn the organization around after a 2-5 record in SEC play in 2021. The Gators will start redshirt sophomore Anthony Richardson at quarterback. Richardson is a dual-threat QB that is already being projected as a first-round pick in next year’s NFL draft. Florida also has a solid group of running backs that should provide enough depth at the position to be a threat. Their schedule, however, is tough, starting with the season opener against Utah. Still, we think the Gators take a step forward this season under Napier. Over 7 (-125) 

Arkansas, LSU

Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman returns only 11 starters from last year’s squad that finished with a solid 9-4 record. They do, however, return quarterback KJ Jefferson who led the Razorbacks in rushing last season. With Jefferson under center and no true road game for the first five weeks of the season, Arkansas should start off the season strong. They could take a dip in October when Alabama comes to town, followed by three straight road games. Still, we like Pittman to carry the momentum his team garnered last year into the 2022 campaign. Over 7 (-125) 

This will be an interesting year for LSU with all eyes on new head coach Brian Kelly. We already know Kelly has mastered his southern accent, but the question is, has his team mastered his new scheme? Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels should be a bright stop for the Tigers at quarterback and Penn State transfer Noah Cain should add talent in the backfield. LSU’s defense lost a lot of players from last year’s team though, which makes us think this could be an inconsistent year for Kelly and the company. Under 7 (-135) 

Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina

These three teams all feel very similar. Solid rosters with a few good position players returning, but none of these teams are poised to shock the SEC division standings come November.

South Carolina and Auburn both open the season with a handful of home games, while Mississippi State hits the road for two of their first three before returning home for three straight. We don’t have a strong play for any of these teams but would lean under for all three. Under 6.5 

Missouri Tigers

The Tigers have an interesting schedule this season, alternating between home and away games for their first 10 games before finishing the season with back-to-back home games. Brady Cook was just named the team’s starting quarterback after battling with Southern Miss transfer Jack Abraham, Tyler Macon, and Sam Horn throughout the summer. The Tigers lost Tyler Badie at running back, leaving that position fairly young and inexperienced this year. On paper, Missouri doesn’t seem to have gotten much better in the offseason, so we’ll play the under. Under 5.5 (-135) 

Vanderbilt Commodores

At the bottom of the SEC teams football list are the Vanderbilt Commodores. Their total is set at 2.5 with the over juiced to +120. They have a lot to improve on this season after finishing last in the SEC in total offense, yards per play, and scoring offense last year. The Commodores return a number of players, including quarterback Mike Wright who split time under center with Ken Seals. However, based on their performance last year, we’re not sure those returning players are really going to move the needle too much for Vandy. Their schedule won’t help either with conference road games at Alabama, Georgia and Kentucky. They also open the season by traveling to Hawaii. That’s one game the Commodores should win, but it might be one of the only few they get all season. Without a whole lot changing for Vanderbilt this season, we would look to play the under on their win total. Under 2.5 (-130)

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