Military Bowl – Tulane vs Virginia Tech Free Picks
2023 Military Bowl: Hokies Balloon to 10-Point Favorites
First, Tulane lost its head coach. Then, a few weeks later, it essentially said goodbye to its quarterback. Despite that, the Green Wave still has another game to prepare for: the Military Bowl against Virginia Tech on Dec. 27.
Bettors continue to fade Tulane. After opening as 5.5-point underdogs, the Green Wave are now up to +10. They’re also +320 on the moneyline, with Virginia Tech at -400. Meanwhile, the Over/Under has shrunk from 48.5 to 44.5.
Can Tulane defy the odds and respond? Read on as we break down both teams and make our 2023 Military Bowl pick.
Military Bowl Information
Virginia Tech vs Tulane 
Day/Time:
Location: Navy-Marine Corps-Memorial Stadium; Annapolis, Md.
Stream: ESPN, ESPN+
All Hands on Deck for Va Tech
Virginia Tech was a bit streaky, alternating wins and losses over the final month. Yet, the Hokies did enough to gain bowl eligibility, hammering rival Virginia 55-17 in their regular-season finale to improve to 6-6. A 1-point favorite, the Hokies gained 500 yards of total offense as part of their biggest scoring output of the season.
The Hokies have covered two of the last three games and are 7-5 ATS for the season. They’ve also hit the Over three straight games. Altogether, they were 8-4 against the Over/Under, with one of the highest cover rates (66.7%) in the country. That’s important to keep in mind when Over/Under betting.
Unlike most of Power Five programs, Virginia Tech is in a unique spot regarding potential transfers and opt-outs. Second-year head coach Brent Pry retained most of his roster, meaning the Hokies should be relatively whole for the 2023 Military Bowl. They also don’t have any significant college football injuries. Tight end Daequan Wright, the Hokies’ third-leading receiver, is arguably the most significant loss.
The Hokies are in good hands with quarterback Kyron Drones, who’s passed for 1,993 yards, 15 touchdowns, and only three interceptions in his first year as a starter.
Wave of Departures for Tulane
Tulane squandered an opportunity to play in another New Year’s Six bowl, falling 26-14 to SMU in the AAC Championship Game. Instead, 13-0 Liberty — the highest ranked Group of Five program in the CFP rankings — received that bid.
Since then, things have only gotten worse for Tulane. On top of losing head coach Willie Fritz to Houston, Tulane had several NCAAF players hit the NCAA transfer portal, including receiver Chris Brazzell, tight end Alex Bauman, and edge rushers Devean Deal and Keith Cooper Jr. The Green Wave will also be without quarterback Michael Pratt, who’s opted to sit out the 2023 Military Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Pratt, who threw for 2,406 yards, 22 touchdowns and only five interceptions, will instead participate in the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala., on Feb. 3. With backup Kai Horton also in the transfer portal, the Green Wave will likely turn to third-stringer Justin Ibieta to start. Ibieta has attempted only 39 passes in four seasons with Tulane.
Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle and defensive coordinator Shiel Wood will follow Fritz to Houston but are planning to stick around long enough to coach the bowl game. Tulane has already tabbed former Troy head coach Jon Sumrall as Fritz’s replacement.
No Fritz, No Pratt, Now What?
Without their head coach and No. 1 quarterback, it’s fair to wonder how the Green Wave will respond. On top of that, they’re coming off a disheartening loss in the AAC title game. Under these circumstances, they wouldn’t be the first NCAAF team to suffer from an emotional hangover.
At the same time, this is an opportunity for seldom-used players like Ibieta to step up and show their worth. If receivers Lawrence Keys III and Jha’Quan Jackson are healthy enough to return, the Green Wave won’t be entirely at a loss.
PICK
Tulane has its hands full without Pratt. Still, this spread is too large for our liking. While we like Virginia Tech to win outright, the the Green Wave are good enough to keep this within single digits. We’re taking Tulane +10 and feel confident in the Green Wave covering so long as the spread doesn’t dip below +8.
As for the total, we’re going to stick with recent trends and take Under 44.5. Tulane has gone Under the projected total in 11 of its 13 games, matching Iowa for the highest rate (84.6%) in FBS.
For NCAAF daily lines, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine
