NCAAF: Army vs Navy Betting Odds Preview Analysis
Under the Total Has Hit 10 Straight Games and 18 of Last 21
The Army vs Navy over/under angle isn’t a secret, a fact solidified by the avalanche of under money flowing at the start of the betting. We’ll look at this a little later, but the public rushed to the betting window to push the opening total from 34.5 to 32.5. Neither one of these teams will be involved in College Football’s bowl season, so expect each team to treat Saturday’s match-up like their National Championship game. Let’s begin with our Army vs Navy Betting odds preview analysis for this game.
Game Information
Army Cadets (5-6) vs Navy Midshipmen (4-7)
Date & Time & Streaming:
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Streaming: CBS
Navy is Focused on Extending Small Trend
The focus will be on the total for bettors, for the Midshipmen, they’ll be focused on beating the Cadets for the fourth time in five years. Navy’s confidence has to be at a season-high after crushing Central Florida last week (17-14) as a 15-point underdog.
The Midshipman comes in ranked 9th in the country in rushing defense, but much of that can be attributed to the fact that the Navy is 7th in the country with just under 240 yards rushing per game. Not to take away too much from them defensively because the Cadets are second in the nation in rushing with over 300 per game, but that hasn’t stopped them from poor defensive numbers against the rush (115th).
With 81% of the total tickets written coming in on the under, this ignites another trend this college football season. When the total is receiving 80% or more of the wagers, 56.10% of the time the public has been right.
That bodes well for another under with 81% of the best on the under. Let’s continue our Army vs Navy Betting odds preview by taking a deeper look at the Cadets.
Cadets Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust
That’s what you can expect from the Cadets. Run the ball without the threat of many big plays. This has been what Army Football has been for quite some time.
Handicappers know that games are won in the trenches, and when comparing both of these NCAAF teams, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Navy wouldn’t get the best of that match-up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Also, check the updated NCAAF player stats for more perspective.
The Cadets have been a frustrating team to wager on from a side perspective, over the last four seasons, Army is 21-22 ATS (-216 units). When you go a little deeper the numbers become clearer. When the Cadets are receiving 1-3 points since 2012, Army has produced a less than stellar 5-12 ATS mark.
This tells us one thing, Army doesn’t win games that the point spread views as a close match-up. Let’s continue our Army vs Navy Betting odds preview by looking at all the angles, followed by our game selection.
As expected, the Total is Falling
Earlier we wrote about the trend that all sportsbooks deal with when Army and Navy get together, bettors don’t care how low the number is, the under is the bet.
Let’s conclude our Army vs Navy odds preview by focusing on the side, followed by our official selection. This is a classic pros vs joes match-up. With 66% of the total wagers coming in on Army, but 84% of the money in on the Navy early on, it’s clear that the professional money has pushed this number to Navy -1.5 after opening as a 2.5- point consensus dog.
We have a not-so-strong position on Army in a grinder, which makes it difficult to bet the over. No way Army wins a shootout. With the total at 32.5, we wanted to take a look at the entire landscape of College Football and figure out how successful bettors are when taking the under when the total is listed in the 30s.
The result, bettors were 51-35, 59.30%, +1168 units. That holds true with recent developments, with the under-winning 59.45% (22-15, +489 units).
In that same, games involving both Army and Navy are 7-1, when the totals are listed in the ’30s. We’re not going against that trend Saturday, but we strongly recommend getting your wager in early to get the best out of a shrinking number.
| Last Updated: 12/7/2022 |  Navy Midshipmen |
|---|---|
| Line | -1.5 (-115) |
| Total | 32.5 |
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