Since that moment, North Carolina State has won four straight games in the ACC and is 8-3 on the season. That’s the same record as their opponent on Saturday.
The North Carolina Tar Heels are also sitting at 8-3 after losing in three of their last five games. One of the wins for the Tar Heels came in overtime against Duke, and the other was a win against an FCS school.
That said, North Carolina is a 2-point favorite on the road against the Wolfpack, with the total at 55.
Is North Carolina State still getting disrespected?
Let’s analyze the UNC vs NC State betting spread for Saturday’s late-night ACC matchup.
Location: Carter-Finley Stadium
UNC vs NC State Betting Spread Analysis & Trends
The North Carolina Tar Heels began the season so strong. But they’ve dropped three games in their last five and haven’t covered in four of their previous five.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have hit the Over and Under in five games each, with one game being a push.
North Carolina is 6-1 at home but just 1-2 on the road. While they’ll be in the same state, the Tar Heels are still playing a road game.
On the other hand, North Carolina State has covered the spread in all four games during the winning streak. The Wolfpack are now 5-5-1 against the spread and have hit the Under in eight of 11 games this season.
North Carolina State is also 4-2 at home this year.
In 2022, the Wolfpack earned a 30-27 overtime win against the Tar Heels. They’ve won two straight games against the Tar Heels but didn’t cover in 2021 as 5.5-point favorites in a 34-30 win.
Another Sweet & Sour Season For The Tar Heels
The North Carolina gave fans some home this season.
North Carolina began the season 6-0 with one of the best quarterbacks that the university has ever had on campus. But the Tar Heels struggled defensively in the second half of the season after losses to Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Clemson.
North Carolina allowed at least 31 points in each of those losses. They also gave up 45 points in double-overtime to Duke in a 47-45 win.
The defense is committing too many penalties and making too many mistakes. Not even North Carolina’s quarterback, Maye, could help overcome all of that.
Did Brennan Armstrong Deserve Better?
The North Carolina State Wolfpack struggled with their prized transfer quarterback Brennan Armstrong. Things got so bad that M.J. Morris took over at quarterback as a sophomore.
Morris helped North Carolina State get by Marshall, Clemson, and Miami but decided to redshirt this season despite having a QBR of 30.4 through four games. Morris had thrown seven touchdowns and five interceptions but wanted to redshirt because he didn’t get to start the season.
In a crazy turn of events, the Wolfpack returned to Armstrong on November 11. Armstrong led North Carolina State through Wake Forest and Virginia Tech. He’s an incredible thrower, but he also added at least 89 rushing yards in each of those wins.
Armstrong got a second chance and didn’t take it for granted. A win against North Carolina would certainly help his legacy in his one season with the Wolfpack.
Don’t Sleep On NC State’s Defense
Brennan Armstrong has been fun over the last couple of games. But we have to give much credit to the Wolfpack defense.
Although North Carolina State allowed 28 points to Virginia Tech last weekend, the Wolfpack gave up just 12 points in the previous eight quarters against Miami and Wake Forest. They even held Clemson to 17 points and despite a loss to Duke, the Wolfpack only gave up 24 points.
The Wolfpack have held teams to just 190.2 yards in the air and 100.3 yards on the ground. They’re one of the best tackling teams in the nation and have dominated against the run this year.
The pass rush isn’t as effective, but the secondary has done well enough to keep the passing game intact defensively.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have averaged nearly 40 points per game under Drake Maye. But despite adding 311.3 yards in the air, they’ve also gained 198.7 yards on the ground. It’s unlikely that the Tar Heels earn 200 yards rushing against the Wolfpack in this game.
On the other hand, North Carolina is better in the secondary and weaker in the run. The Tar Heels have allowed 215.3 yards in the air, with 153.7 yards on the ground. Under Armstrong, the Wolfpack wanted to run the football more. Armstrong leads the team in passing and rushing and has 522 yards on 117 carries.
Armstrong has 14 total touchdowns this year and hasn’t even started in four games this year.
Our NCAAF picks today include North Carolina State +2 (-110).
UNC vs NC State Odds
For NCAAF news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.