It’s incredible to know that over 70% of the favorites can win on the moneyline, but still lose 6.09 units. That’s what happened last week, bringing the 2023 record to 454-160 (73.9%) but still not good enough to produce an overall profit (-24.69 units).
The biggest upset of the season came in week one when Texas State beat the Baylor Bears, 42-31, as a 27.5-point underdog (+1400). +3.5 points continue to hand bettors more plus money winners more than any other number with an 18-16 record (+997 units).
The highest profiting long-shot on the board is teams that are 7-point dogs (10-12, +9.90 units). Let’s go through our College Football point spread sheet to find you three underdogs that have the best shot at giving you a plus money College Football week 12 upset winner.
Upset #1: Duke Blue Devils (-3.5, 46) vs. Virginia Cavaliers
The Blue Devils aren’t exactly coming into this one on a roll after losing three of their last four games outright while failing to cover four of their last six. We’re not sure what will be left in the tank after losing a double overtime thriller last week against in-state rival North Carolina, 47-45. A game in which Duke trailed 13-0 with about five minutes left in the first half.
They’ll be heading into an emotional buzzsaw on campus with this being the one-year anniversary of the campus death of three football players. The Cavaliers have only won one time this season as a dog, but that one win as a 24-point underdog to that North Carolina Tarheels (31-27) in week 8, shows they’re more than capable of taking down Duke. Take Virginia on the moneyline +155.
Upset #2: East Carolina Pirates vs. Navy Midshipmen (-2.5, 31.5)
With a total of 31.5, you know we have a realistic shot of cashing a plus-money winner here. The temperatures are supposed to be in the high 50s and clear, meaning this is just a game with two offenses that are inept against two pretty good defensive NCAAF teams.
We’re not going to be shocked by what we see from the Navy as they’ll trying to own the ground game as they do every week. This season the Midshipmen are averaging 205 yards rushing per game, 12th in the nation. The problem comes if you take it that way, and the Pirates who are 38th in total defense and 27th against the run are more than capable of making that happen.
East Carolina has won just once this season as a do, but this is clearly the best chance they have to win as a dog all season. Take East Carolina +125. We have one more College Football week 12 upset winner to round out your Saturday.
Upset #3: Purdue Boilermakers (-3, 49) vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Our last upset on our NCAA Football betting card is one that involves a game with a lot of movement on the point spread after Purdue opened as a 1-point road favorite. That was moved up two points on the back of some big money early in the week. The public is fighting back with just 51% of the money now on Purdue, but the books are sticking it out because of respected money.
It is peculiar that a 3-7 Boilermaker team would be a road favorite, especially when a win would make the Wildcats bowl-eligible. We’re aware that this might be a small let-down spot after the Wildcats went to Wisconsin and grabbed a 24-10 road win, but Northwestern is 4-1 at home and has QB Ben Bryant back. Take the Wildcats +125.