Three CFB Underdogs Who Will Win Outright in Week Four

Favorites are 76-76-1 to start 2023, Home teams are 73-72-1. 

For the overall records of favorites and underdogs to be as close as it is, there must be a ton of College Football upsets, and betting on underdogs is the way to find solid winners while taking a few points for insurance, but finding those teams have proved difficult with just 33 dogs winning outright of the 152 total games (21.71%, -37.18 units). Road dogs have won just 18 of 99 games outright (18.18%, -28.48). Now that we understand how hard it is, let’s look through the College Football schedule to find those needles in the haystacks.

Clemson A Home Dog For The First Time Since 2016

Not only is Clemson a home underdog for the first time in seven seasons, but it’s just the ninth time since 2005. In that span, the Tigers have won as a home dog four times (4-5). Clemson has not lost as a home dog since 2013, making this an attractive wager, even if it is against the fourth-ranked team in the country. This would be a massive move ahead for Clemson after losing their opener against Duke.

Head Coach Dabo Swinny knows that the outcome of this contest will determine whether the Tigers will play in a major bowl game or get left behind, considering they still have Miami and Notre Dame on the schedule. Last week, Florida State laid a 21-point beatdown to LSU as a 1-point underdog, setting up a possible letdown situation.

With over 88% of the early money in on the Seminoles, this number has pushed up from FSU -1.5 to -2.5. We’re taking the underdog, making it our first College Football underdog upset. Let’s continue to analyze the NCAA Football schedule to find you another live dog.

Rice Won’t Bully South Florida

With 92% of the early money, it appears as if the public loves them some Rice Owls. This number has gone from Rice -2 to -2.5, a move that leaves us scratching our heads. The Owls are making their AAC debut against the Bulls after giving the Alabama Crimson Tide all they could handle as a 34.5-point underdog. We’ve been doing this for a long time, so when we have seen the oddsmakers make South Florida a home dog against Rice, the smell of a trap was overwhelming.

Our suggestion is to bet smaller units here as we battle our experience of watching numbers versus betting a team had Alabama down until the fourth quarter. To date, Owls Quarterback JT Daniels, who is playing for his fourth school, is finding a group of receivers that many thought would be a weakness as a strength but we need to see them get their first legit road win before we’re all-in on the Owls.

We conclude our look at potential College Football underdog upsets with Appalachian State heading to Laramie to take on the Cowboys.

The Mountaineers Will Make Themselves At Home In Wyoming

Among the top NCAAF scores to watch on Saturday, this may be the most entertaining. Betting patterns in this one wasn’t a surprise with 61% of the money wagered coming in on Wyoming.

The Cowboys are coming off a cover against the Texas Longhorns as a 30.5-point underdog, losing 31-10. What the oddsmakers saw was a Wyoming team that was tied with Texas at 10 heading into the fourth quarter. Had it not been for that performance, the Mountaineers would be a favorite after covering their last two games. This is one of those games where the public is using logic, and once again that will fail them.

By the way, the Mountaineers have cashed over tickets by an average of 23 points in their first three games. Take App State. That does it for our look at our College Football underdog upsets. We wish you the best with your wagers this week.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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