Toledo vs Illinois Odds: Can Illinois’ Defense Replenish On Defense?

The Illinois Fighting Illini finally broke out in 2022 under Bret Bielema. In the second half of the season, Illinois had a chance to win the Big Ten West and play in the Big Ten Championship game.

The final few games didn’t work out in Illinois’ favor. But there’s a lot of optimism surrounding the program. Bielema’s Fighting Illini will take on an incredibly talented Toledo team in the season’s first week.

The Toledo Rockets finished 9-5 last season. The Rockets finished 5-3 in the MAC and won the MAC Championship in Jason Candle’s 7th year as head coach. Candle’s Rockets haven’t had a losing season since he took over.

The Rockets will have an excellent test early against a Big Ten opponent. We’ll know exactly where they stack up heading into conference play.

Here’s a look at the Toledo vs Illinois odds for Week 1 of the college football season. There will be many blowouts with the NCAAF scores in the opening week. But this Toledo-Illinois matchup likely won’t be one of them.

The Fundamentals Work for Illinois

The Illinois Fighting Illini didn’t have a lot of star talent on their team last year. Devon Witherspoon was the only major talent, along with Chase Brown at running back. But because they played the game the right way, they won eight games.

I’m talking about the fundamentals. Illinois dominated defensively and took care of the ball on offense. Illinois also controlled the clock, ran the ball efficiently, and kept everyone fresh on the sideline.

That type of style will always help to win close games.

However, Illinois hasn’t had back-to-back winning seasons since 2010-2011. It’s been a while since Illinois has had sustained success.

Illinois won’t have Tommy DeVito around anymore. He’s in the NFL. Therefore, it’ll be Luke Altmyer getting the start at quarterback for the Fighting Illini. Oe Miss recruited Altmyer but couldn’t beat Matt Corral of Jaxson Dart for the starting job.

Altmyer has wheels on his legs. He’ll be able to make more plays with his feet than DeVito. You must also consider that he was recruited by an Ole Miss offense that loves to air it out. So he’s got plenty of potential with his arm as well.

Meanwhile, four of the five top receivers from last year are returning. That includes Isaiah Williams, who had 82 catches and five touchdowns.

On the other hand, the run game won’t be the same without Chase Brown. But at least Reggie Love was on the team last year and is familiar with the system. Love was the backup to Brown and added 317 yards rushing.

On defense, the Illini are expected to be incredibly solid again. Illinois was No. 1 in the nation in takeaways, earned the most interceptions, and was in the top three in total defense.

They also held opponents to just 12.8 points per game.

The defense lost a lot of players to the NFL. But that doesn’t mean they can’t develop more. In the secondary, Tyler Strain and Tahveon Nicholson played behind guys like Devon Witherspoon last year. The secondary also added Nicario Harper from Louisville. The linebacker group will still have Tarique Barnes, who added 46 tackles. Beyond that, the defensive line should be one of the best in the Big Ten.

Can Dequan Finn Limit Interceptions for Toledo?

Dequan Finn will get the start at quarterback. He’s in his fifth season for Toledo and threw for 2,260 yards and 23 touchdowns last year. However, he’ll have to limit interceptions. He threw 12 of them last season and hasn’t had a single season where he’s thrown a 60% completion percentage.

In 2021, Finn was excellent. He added 18 touchdowns and just two interceptions on 250 attempts. Last year, he had 315 attempts, threw 23 touchdowns, and had 12 interceptions.

This year’s goal would be to keep the touchdowns up, increase the completion percentage slightly, and limit the interceptions. That would make him one of the best quarterbacks in the MAC.

The offense lost WR DeMeer Blankumsee to Memphis and no longer has Jamal Turner at tight end. However, Jerjuan Newton is still back. He had 53 catches for 830 yards and nine touchdowns last year.

The offensive line should also have four starters back. That should help the team’s cohesion, especially with Jacquez Short at running back.

Meanwhile, the Toledo secondary has a lot of All-MAC talent on the roster. Last year, Toledo was the No. 1 defense in the MAC, and the Rockets got off on third downs, which is hard to do in that conference.

The linebacker core is inexperienced and could hurt them, especially in Week 1 against Illinois. But overall, Toledo should be in for another terrific season that ends in a bowl game.

Look at the Toledo vs Illinois odds and trends for the Week 1 non-conference matchup.

Toledo vs Illinois

The Toledo Rockets have a sensational defense. But the offense, with Finn under center, is questionable. Finn threw many interceptions last year, and he’ll face a defense that schemed up a lot of interceptions. That’s not a good sign.

Meanwhile, Illinois will start Luke Altmyer at quarterback. This will be his first starting experience with Illinois. There could be some growing pains, especially knowing that the Illini don’t have Chase Brown to run all over opponents.

The Fighting Illini are 4-1 Against The Spread in their last five games in September.

Illinois has much more talent on its roster. They also started last year’s season red hot. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if both defenses are in the top 25 college football rankings in total defense.

Illinois lost four players in the secondary and produced 17 interceptions. That’s a lot lost. But most of the returning players were backups to those players. Those guys produced because of their development in the program. Illinois will continue to dominate defensively and recruit great talent in that area.

A Snooze-Fest

The Toledo vs Illinois odds have the Fighting Illini favored by 9.5 points. However, I’m eying the Under, which is at 46. If Finn makes poor decisions against Illinois, Toledo will put up a lot of zeros per possession.

Meanwhile, Illinois’ offense is a work in progress. The team no longer has Tommy DeVito or Chase Brown on the offensive end. While the NCAA Football against spreads is always appealing, I’d back the Under in this game.

For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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