Buccaneers vs Lions Free Pick: NFC Title Game Berth on Line
Detroit Solid Favorite at Home Against Tampa Bay
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) visit the Detroit Lions (13-5) Sunday for the right to advance to the NFC Championship game. The game features two of the best point spread teams of the 2023 season. Both the Bucs and the Lions are 12-6 against the line this season. Tampa Bay pulled off the upset over Philadelphia to reach this game. Detroit edged the Rams but is expected to hit the road for this game.
But the NFL playoff picture changed with Green Bay’s upset of Dallas. That allowed the Lions to remain at home for a second straight week. Detroit is favored by 6.5 points with a total of 48.5. The Buccaneers vs Lions free pick will look at both teams and some playoff trends to try and come up with a winning play.
Buccaneers vs Lions 
Day/Time:
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
TV & Live Stream: Watch Live Sports
Tampa Bay in Tough Historical Spot
The Buccaneers made it look easy against Philadelphia, winning outright as 2.5-point underdogs. But that also places Tampa Bay in a bad historical spot. Going back to 2009, away playoff teams off a win as a playoff home underdog are 0-6 straight-up and 1-5 against the point spread. That’s not much of a sample size, but it bears watching. Last year’s Jacksonville team is the only squad to have covered the spread in this spot, with the road team losing by an average of 19.3 points.
For Tampa Bay to keep it close, the Bucs will have to throw the ball. Tampa Bay doesn’t run the ball particularly well, and the Lions are pretty solid with their rushing defense. The Buccaneers average just 3.5 yards per carry, but are 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 ATS when rushing for 90 or more yards. Tampa Bay rushed for 119 yards against the Eagles, although part of that was due to the Bucs working on the clock with a large second-half lead.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has to do a better job defending the pass. The rushing defense is fine, allowing 3.8 yards per carry. But Tampa Bay allows 6.9 yards per pass attempt. That’s simply too high and a big reason why Tampa Bay allows 5.7 yards per play. The Bucs are +8 in turnovers for the season, but that’s not something you can count on to happen consistently.
Lions Look For Repeat Performance
Detroit beat Tampa Bay 20-6 on Oct. 15 on the road. Now they’ll look to do the same thing at home. Detroit’s defense was the difference in the game, limiting Tampa Bay to 251 total yards, while gaining 380. Detroit should have scored a few more points than it did with that many yards.
Detroit comes into the game with the ability to run or pass, but Tampa Bay’s defense is definitely easier to throw against. The Bucs allowed the Lions to throw for 340 yards in the first game. Not all that much has changed for either team since then.
Detroit also has a few problems against the pass, with the Lions allowing 253.4 yards per game. Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay couldn’t take advantage of Detroit’s secondary the first time they met. But the Bucs will get another chance. Detroit’s rushing defense is solid, and the Bucs aren’t likely to have a lot of success on the ground.
With Dallas out of the picture, the Lions are now the second betting choice in the NFL. Detroit’s Super Bowl odds are now +900, with San Francisco the favorites at +175.
What to Expect
This game should feature plenty of passing, especially from Tampa Bay. The Lions are more likely to have success running the ball and should be able to mix up their plays a bit. It’s hard to envision the Buccaneers having much success on the ground, and they should be throwing quite a bit. Tampa Bay can throw the short pass, which almost serves the same purpose as a running play. But Detroit could be a little too strong for Tampa Bay’s offensive line up front.
Who to Bet On?
The Buccaneers vs Lions free pick notes, the point spread moved from Detroit -6 to Lions -6.5. It’s not a huge move. But it is significant, especially with Tampa Bay looking dominant and Detroit edging Los Angeles in the first game. The betting percentages show Detroit is getting the majority of the wagers, so the move isn’t entirely unexpected.
The Buccaneers vs Lions free pick does like Detroit -6.5 to cover the spread against Tampa Bay. A short week and travel won’t help Tampa Bay, and the Lions fans will be a factor in this one.
The total is a little bit tricky, as both teams could be throwing the ball quite a bit. When that happens, it tends to favor the over due to incomplete passes stopping the clock. But the NFL scores show Tampa Bay only had 49 or more points on three occasions out of 18 games. The Lions saw 49 or more points on 10 occasions.
When the teams met in October, the total on the game was just 43, so there’s been a 5.5-point increase for this game. But the over is probably the right side for the total, so play Detroit and the over in this NFL game.
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