Avalanche Look To Finish Off Bumbling Jets

The Colorado Avalanche can make Avalanche vs Jets odds correct again as series favorites despite the Winnipeg Jets having home-ice advantage. The Avalanche have averaged 5.5 goals per game in the series while allowing just five over the last three games combined. That’s why they lead the series 3-1.

NHL lines show Colorado a -113 favorite, but that has been bet up to -122 with a total of 6.5 (over -120). Can Colorado clinch the series or will Winnipeg find a way to survive?

Jets Have Lost Identity In Postseason

For anyone who thought the Jets were the better team in this series, they’d tell you it was because of their defense and goaltending. They allowed just 2.42 goals per game during the regular season (tied for the top spot with the Florida Panthers).

Connor Hellebuyck was 37-19-4 with a goals-against average of 2.39 along with a sparkling save percentage of .921. Back-up Laurent Brossoit finished 15-5-2 with a 2.00 goals against average and a .927 save percentage.

They were 11th in shots allowed with 29.60 per game and number one in team save percentage (.923). This is exactly why we say numbers only tell you’ve been, not where you’re going. Against the Avalanche, Hellebuyck is just 1-3, allowing 5.22 goals per game.

Unlike the regular season, the Jets have allowed over 38 shots per game (38.25). Unless that changes, this series will end in five.

Avalanche Frustrating Winnipeg

You can read into post-game comments any way you’d like but after listening to Jets head coach and forward Mark Scheifele speak, you can sense an air of frustration.

Bowness wants his team to stay out of the penalty box and Scheifele suggested that the Jets needed to make adjustments the way Colorado has. This reminds us of the meme with the Spiderman’s who point their index fingers at each other.

That is the talk that will drown a team for the summer. It may seem like that words are not a big deal but Bowness isn’t happy with allowing two power-play goals in games four and six in the series. Vladislav Namestnikov’s holding penalty led to the Valeri Nichushkin game-winning power-play goal that gave the Avs a 2-1 lead in the second.

It was the second of three Nichushkin goals, who has six in the series. Scheifele may be throwing some shade at Bowness and his ability to respond to Jared Bednar’s adjustments behind the Colorado bench. If Colorado keeps the Jets from finding their 2023-24 NHL season identity again, the Avalanche will be on to the second round.

Predictably The Wagers Are On The Avs

Early betting patterns didn’t come as any surprise with 75% of the moneyline money wagered and 85% of the overall tickets pouring in on Colorado. That has pushed the consensus number on this up -120 in favor of the Avalanche.

Before the contrarians come out and automatically wager on the Jets to be different, keep in mind that favorites are 20-13 (.606) this postseason (-0.84 units) and 130-99 (.568) over the last three seasons. Since 2019, favorites in the postseason are 248-195 (.560).

That’s not good enough to profit (-26.97 units) but when we’re talking about a single game it’s the overall record that gives us more of a guide on where to put our money on this. What helps us seal the deal with our wager is the production of favorites when favored by -125 or less.

This season has produced a 4-4 record but since 2019 that record has improved to 78-60 (.565) +7.93 units. The Avalanche has thrived as a small favorite of -125 or less, winning eight of their last 11 in the postseason (+3.86 units).

Add all that up and our NHL hockey prediction in this match-up is the Colorado Avalanche. That does it for our Avalanche vs Jets odds preview, all the best with your NHL picks and parlays.

For NHL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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