Can Defending Champion Vegas Hold off Elimination Against Dallas?
Stars vs Golden Knights Expert Pick: Dallas -115 ML Favorite
The Vegas Golden Knights are on the brink of elimination following a 3-2 loss to the Dallas Stars in Game 5. It’s now win-or-go-home for the defending Stanley Cup champions as the Western Conference first-round series shifts to Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena for Game 6 on Friday (10 p.m. ET).
Dallas is -1.5 (+220) on the puck line and -115 on the moneyline for Game 5, while Vegas is +1.5 (-270) on the spread and -105 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 5.5 with a slight edge to the Over at -118 odds. The Stars are also -425 favorites to win the series, compared to +340 for the Golden Knights.
Who has the edge? Read on as we break down both teams and give our Stars vs Golden Knights expert pick.
Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights 
Location: T-Mobile Arena; Las Vegas
Day/Time: Streaming: TNT
Stars vs Golden Knights Betting Trends
The Dallas Stars went 35-47 against the puck line during the regular season, including 21-20 away from home. A majority of Dallas’ games went Over the total, as the Stars were 43-39 against the Over/Under. Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights went 40-42 ATS, including 21-20 at home. As for the Over/Under, the Knights were 40-41-1.
It’s important to remember these betting trends when assessing our Stars vs Golden Knights expert pick.
Home Cookin’ at Last
Dallas now leads the series after the visitors had won each of the first four games. The Stars had three different goal scorers, with Jason Robertson netting the eventual game-winner on the power play at 16:32 of the second period. The Stars have scored at least three goals in four of the five games, including four with the man advantage.
As such, the Stars are on the brink of advancing past the first round for the second straight season and fourth time in six years. Their 113 points led the Western Conference and ranked second in the NHL behind the New York Rangers (114).
Dallas unsurprisingly remains among the favorites, with +300 odds to win the West and +700 odds to win the Stanley Cup. Only four teams currently have shorter odds: Hurricanes (+300), Panthers (+475), Oilers (+475) and Avalanche (+550).
The Stars’ biggest strength is in the net. Jake Oettinger owns a 2.31 goals against-average and .911 save percentage this series, similar to his career postseason numbers. He’s allowed two goals in each of the last three games after Vegas stole the first two on the road.
Dallas, in turn, won Games 3 and 4 in Las Vegas. The Stars also went an NHL-best 26-10-4 on the road during the regular season, so their success outside of Dallas is no surprise.
Oddly, the Stars were among the NHL’s worst teams ATS at 35-47. Only Toronto and New Jersey had a lower cover rate than Dallas’ 42.6% per hockey rankings. Still, that hasn’t slowed them down. Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing our Stars vs Golden Knights expert pick.
Musical Chairs in Goal Continues
The defending Stanley Cup champions are facing elimination after dropping their third straight game this series. Two of those losses have been by a single goal.
As Vegas looks to claw its way back into the series, it faces serious questions in goal. Logan Thompson started the first four games, recording a 2.35 GAA and .921 save percentage. He allowed three goals on 31 shots in Vegas’ 4-2 loss in Game 4.
However, Vegas turned to Adin Hill in Game 5. Hill famously replaced Laurent Brossoit during last year’s playoffs and took control of the job, posting an 11-4 record with a 2.17 GAA and .932 save percentage en route to the Stanley Cup.
The Stars got to Hill early, scoring twice in the first period and three times on 25 shots.
That uncertainty has created doubts about Vegas’ longevity this postseason. The Golden Knights are now +2000 to win the West and +4500 to defend their title. Only Nashville (+7000) is considered a bigger longshot per hockey odds.
The good news is Vegas has been tough at home (27-12-2). But that hasn’t been an issue for Dallas in this series.
Stars vs Golden Knights Odds
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