ATP Rio Open Odds and Draw Preview: Alcaraz Returns to Defend Title

Can Anybody Dethrone Alcaraz?

Alcaraz Returns to Defend Title

The third stop on the Latin American clay-court swing is the ATP Rio Open, running from February 20 to 26. In this space, we get you primed for the betting as we analyse the draw alongside the ATP Rio de Janeiro Odds powered by the best online sportsbooks.

The Rio de Janeiro Open has been a staple of the spring clay-court swing since 2014, attracting some of the game’s best clay courters, including the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, who won the inaugural event in 2014. Other champions of note include David Ferrer (2015), Dominic Thiem (2017) and, more recently, Carlos Alcaraz (2022).

This year’s line-up of clay-court aficionados touching down in the famed Brazilian seaside metropolis to compete for the title will be headlined by World No. 2 Alcaraz. The defending champion, quite rightly, is the player to beat according to the best tennis bets currently trading.

Alcaraz is coming off a title-winning run in Buenos Aires, winning his first title of the season in his first event of 2023. He is sure to face stiff competition from British No. 1 Cameron Norrie, veteran and 2022 runner-up Diego Schwartzman, Italian rising star Lorenzo Musetti and others that will be keen to show their prowess on the red dirt this week.

Can anyone deny Alcaraz a second straight title in Rio de Janeiro? Find out as we preview this much-anticipated ATP 500 event and offer valuable insight about the draw for your consideration before placing your wagers on the ATP Rio de Janeiro Odds.

ATP Rio Open Outrights

Carlos Alcaraz -138
Cameron Norrie +850
Sebastian Baez +900
Lorenzo Musetti +1200
Francisco Cerundolo +1600
Dominic Thiem +1600
Albert Vinolas-Ramos +2500
Hugo Dellien +2500
Laslo Djere +2800
Dusan Lajovic +3300
Thomas Martin Etchevery +3300
Bernabe Zapata Miralles +4000
Juan Pablo Varillas +4000
Diego Schwartzman +4000
Alex Molcan +4000
Jaume Munar +5000
Pedro Martínez +5000
Cristian Garín +5000
Pedro Cachin +5000
Fabio Fognini +6600
Roberto Carballes Baena +6600
Thiago Monteiro +10000
Daniel Elahi Galan +10000
Joao Sousa +12500
Joao Fonseca +25000
Thomaz Bellucci +25000
Mateus D C C Alves +25000

2022 Defending Champion: Carlos Alcaraz

Spain’s Carlos Alcaraz became the youngest to win an ATP 500 title since the category was created in 2009, following his triumphant run in Rio de Janeiro last season. Then, at 18, the Spanish NextGen star defeated Argentina’s Diego Schwartzman in the final, 6-4, 6-2.

Winning Rio proved to be the catalyst for a breakthrough 2022 season for the youngster. He went on to win five titles, including the 2022 US Open. He became the youngest World No. 1 player in the ATP rankings history after his maiden Grand Slam triumph at Flushing Meadows.

2023 ATP Rio Open Betting Preview

  • Alcaraz is appearing in only his second tournament on the 2023 ATP calendar. The teenage phenom missed the first month of the year after he withdrew from the Australian swing due to an injury. He’s favored at -138 to win his second title of 2023 and second consecutive Rio Open title this week.
  • Norrie is amid a standout start to his 2023 campaign. He brings a 13-3 record to Rio, which includes two runner-up finishes at the ASB Classic and Buenos Aires. While he is the next best bet after Alcaraz, his odds are 6x greater than Alcaraz. That is telling.
  • Baez registers as the third-best bet and the only other player priced in triple digits at +900 on the ATP Rio de Janeiro Odds board. Baez won the first title of the Latin American clay-court swing two weeks ago in Cordoba. But he crashed out of the first round in Buenos Aires iand arrives this week to Rio with a modest 4-3 record.
  • Musetti is a wild card. He started the year strong, helping Italy reach the final of the United Cup by winning three of his four matches. He’s struggled with injuries and form since then, though, and brings a modest 5-3 record to Rio. Most recently, he stumbled at the second hurdle in Buenos Aires.

ATP Rio Open Draw Preview

First Quarter: Alcaraz Headlines

Alcaraz will put his perfect 4-0 record on the line in Rio when he embarks on his title defense campaign this week. Despite Alcaraz having a limited number of matches under his belt, bookmakers confidently installed him at the top of the ATP Rio de Janeiro Odds odds board.

Alcaraz opens his bid against Marteus Alves. In the R16, he will face the winner of Fabio Fognini versus qualifier Thomas Barrios Vera. Then, in the quarterfinals, he could come up against one of the following: Laslo Djere, Facundo Bagnis, Dusan Lajovic or No. 5 seed Diego Schwartzman.

Schwartzman was the runner-up last season after losing in straight sets to Alcaraz. The diminutive Argentinean has a lot of points to defend this week, but falling into the same quarter as Alcaraz has done him no favors. He opens his bid against Lajovic. In the R16, he will face the winner of Djere versus Bagnis.

If the tournament falls in line with the draw, a rematch of last year’s final between Alcaraz and Schwartzman could be in the cards.

  • First Quarter Prediction: Alcaraz vs Schwartzman
  • Winner: Alcaraz

Second Quarter: Musetti Headlines

Musetti is the third seed in Rio. According to the bookmakers, he is one of the contenders for the title. He headlines the second quarter, which contains No. 6 seed and Cordoba Open champion Sebastian Baez.

Musetti opens his bid against Nicolas Jarry in the R32. Should the 20-year-old Italian overcome the Chilean, he will face the winner of Pedro Martinez and Cristian Garín for a spot in the quarterfinals.

Baez’s path to the final eight begins with a date against Brazilian wild card Thomaz Bellucci. In the R16, he could face the winner of qualifier Hugo Gaston versus Juan Pablo Varillas.

  • Second Quarter Prediction: Baez vs Musetti
  • Winner: Musetti

Third Quarter Cerundolo Player Headlines

No. 4 seed Francisco Cerundolo is the highest seed in the third quarter. Joining him in this section is No. 7 seed Albert Ramos-Vinolas. Of the four quarters, this is one of the toughest to predict because of the quality of clay-court experts – all of which have the ability to blow this section wide open.

That said, Cerundolo and Albert Ramos Viñolas  are in relatively good form, which bodes well for their chances of coming through, respectively.

Cerundolo’s path to the last eight will see him face Roberto Carballes Baena in the R32 and then the winner of Jaume Munar versus Bernabe Zapata Miralles in the R16.

Ramos-Vinolas opens his bid against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. In the second round, he will take on the winner of Pedro Cachin and Daniel Elahi Galan.

  • Third Quarter Prediction: Cerundolo versus Ramos Vinolas
  • Winner: Ramos-Vinolas

Fourth Quarter: Norrie Headlines

Norrie is coming off a solid run in Buenos Aires, where he finished runner-up to Alcaraz. The British No. 1 isn’t the most natural player on clay. Nevertheless he’s a top competitor and a player one can’t dismiss on any surface.

Flanking Norrie’s quarter is No. 9 seed Alex Molcan. The pair could set up a fascinating quarterfinal showdown, but before either one can look that far ahead, they must navigate a course through the early rounds.

Norrie opens his bid against lucky loser Juan Manuel Cerundolo. In the R16, he could face his toughest test against former champion Dominic Thiem or home favorite Thiago Monteiro.

Molcan’s path to the final eight will see him start his campaign against Brazilian wild card Joao Fonseca. In the R16, he could see either Hugo Dellen or Joao Sousa.

  • Fourth Quarter Prediction: Molcan vs Thiem
  • Winner: Molcan
  • Top Half Semifinal Prediction: Alcaraz vs Musetti
  • Bottom Half Semifinal Prediction: Ramos-Vinolas vs Molcan
  • Final Prediction: Alcaraz vs Molcan
  • Final Winner: Alcaraz
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