WTA Paribas Open Odds and Draw Preview
Swiatek Begins Sunshine Double Defense Campaign in Indian Wells
World No. 1 and defending champion leads a star-studded cast into Indian Wells this week for the WTA 1000 event, the WTA Paribas Open. As ever, we bring you a breakdown of the draw and corresponding tennis odds powered by the top online sportsbooks.
The WTA BNP Paribas Open is the first WTA 1000 event on the 2023 tennis schedule.Main draw play begins on Wednesday, March 8, with Swiatek headlining the 128-player draw as the No. 1 seed.
Swiatek’s title run in Indian Wells last year was part of her record-setting 37-match winning streak and it marked the first of her back-to-back WTA 1000 title-winning run during the spring American hard-court swing – becoming the first player since Victoria Azarenka in 2016 to accomplish the Sunshine Double by winning Indian Wells and Miami.
Joining the 21-year-old Polish star are 19 of the Top 20 players in the women tennis standings, including World No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka, World No. 3 Jessica Pegula, World No. 4 Ons Jabeur and World No. 5 Carolina Garcia.
| Last Updated: 3/8/2023 | Odds |
|---|---|
| 1. Iga Swiatek | +150 |
| 2. Aryna Sabalenka | +800 |
| 3. Jessica Pegula | +1100 |
| 4. Barbora Krejcikova | +1100 |
| 5. Elena Rybakina | +2000 |
| 6. Coco Gauff | +2000 |
| 7. Belinda Bencic | +2200 |
| 8. Veronika Kudermetova | +2500 |
| 9. Maria Sakkari | +2800 |
| 10. Ons Jabeur | +2800 |
| 11. Carolina Garcia | +2800 |
| 12. Liudmila Samsonova | +3000 |
| 13. Karolina Pliskova | +5000 |
| 14. Jelena Ostapenko | +5000 |
| 15. Marta Kostyuk | +5000 |
| 16. Madison Keys | +5000 |
| 17. Victoria Azarenka | +5000 |
| 18. Marketa Vondrousova | +6600 |
| 19. Dona Vekic | +6600 |
| 20. Danielle Collins | +6600 |
| 21. Marie Bouzkova | +6600 |
| 22. Amanda Anisimova | +6600 |
| 23. Emma Raducanu | +8000 |
| 24. Karolina Muchova | +8000 |
| 25. Elise Mertens | +8000 |
| 26. Petra Kvitova | +8000 |
| 27. Daria Kasatkina | +8000 |
| 28. Beatriz Haddad-Maia | +8000 |
| 29. Leylah Fernandez | +8000 |
| 30. Paula Badosa | +8000 |
| 31. Bianca Andreescu | +8000 |
| 32. Shelby Rogers | +8000 |
| 33. Anastasia Potapova | +10000 |
| 34. Linda Noskova | +10000 |
| 35. Magda Linette | +10000 |
| 36. Camila Giorgi | +10000 |
| 37. Linda Fruhvirtova | +10000 |
| 38. Ekaterina Alexandrova | +10000 |
| 39. Sloane Stephens | +12500 |
| 41. Sofia Kenin | +12500 |
| 42. Alycia Parks | +15000 |
| 43. Petra Martic | +15000 |
| 44. Anhelina Kalinina | +15000 |
| 45. Shuai Zhang | +20000 |
BNP Paribas Open Draw Analysis
First Quarter: Swiatek and Garcia Headline
Swiatek headlines the first quarter of the draw alongside fifth seed Carolina Garcia. The top 32 seeds in this tournament get a first round bye, meaning that both Swiatek and Garcia will begin their campaigns in the R64 this weekend.
Swiatek will take on the winner of Claire Liu and Alison van Uytvanck. One of the more dangerous opponents, former Indian Wells and US Open champion Bianca Andreescu looms as a potential third round opponent for Swiatek. While the R16 could serve up dangerous floaters in Beatriz Haddad-Maia, compatriot Magda Linette or 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu.
Garcia will launch her campaign against the winner of Danielle Collins and Tamara Korpatsch with the former representing the tougher challenge of the pair. In the R32, a potential date against 2021 US Open runner-up Leylah Fernandez could be a stumbling block. Whereas the R16 could see Garcia face a number of opponents, including Liudmila Samsonova and Madison Keys.
First Quarterfinal matchup: Swiatek vs Garcia
Second Quarter: Jabeur and Kasatkina
Tunisian trailblazer Jabeur is making her first appearance since the Australian Open. The fourth seed missed over a month of action due to an injury. Fitness could be a question mark as she prepares to begin her campaign in the R64, taking on the winner of Maryna Zanevska or Lauren Davis.
Depending on how the draw shakes up, the R32 could see Jabeur face one of two Czech dark horse contenders, Marie Bouzková and Marketa Vondrousova, or veteran Canadian Rebecca Marino. In the R16, former champion and Sunshine Double extraordinaire Azarenka looms as a potential stumbling block. Alternatively, the fourth round could serve up Karolina Muchova, Yulia Putinseva or Martina Trevisan, Madison Brengle or a qualifier.
No. 8 seed Daria Kasatkina falls into a section of this quarter that includes No. 10 seed Elena Rybakina, making this one of the more wide open sections of the entire WTA Paribas Open tournament.
Kasatkina will face either Tatjana Maria or Jasmine Paolini in the R64. Rybakina will take on the winner of the blockbuster first round matchup between wild card Sofia Kenin and Sloane Stephens. Of these, Rybakina versus either Kenin or Stephens is the more compelling matchup on paper.
In the third round, the highest seed that could challenge Kasatkina is No. 25 seed Petra Martic. Whereas 2021 Indian Wells champion and the No. 21 seed Paula Badosa could give Rybakina, Kenin or Stephens a run for her money.
Second Quarterfinal: Rybakina vs Martic
Third Quarter Sakkari and Pegula
America’s No. 1 player Jessica Pegula and Greece’s No. 1 player Maria Sakkari flank the opposite ends of the fourth quarter.
Pegula will start her bid for the Indian Wells title against a qualifier or dangerous floater Camilla Giorgi of Italy. Then, she could take on Anastasia Potapova, Xiyu Wang or a qualifier in the R32. Things get trickier in the fourth round where several tough customers could emerge, including Petra Kvitova, Jelena Ostapenko, Aliaksandra Sasnovich and Kaia Kanepi.
Sakkari, who was the runner-up to Swiatek last year at the WTA Paribas Open, is sure to open her campaign against an American. Which home favorite it’s going to be will be decided by Katie Volynets and Shelby Rogers in the first round.
In the third round, potential matchups against Anhelina Kalinina, Mayar Sherif or rising star Linda Fruhvirtova are possible for Sakkari. The fourth round could see the No. 1 Greek take on No. 11 seed Veronika Kudermetova, No. 17 seed Karolina Pliskova, wild card Li Ann, Anna Kalinskaya, Alycia Parks or Anna Blinkova.
Third Quarterfinal Matchup: Fruhvirtova vs Kvitova
Fourth Quarter: Gauff and Sabalenka
American teenager Coco Gauff falls into a formidable fourth quarter that is flanked by No. 2 seed and Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka. Should the draw fall in line, the pair would set up a fascinating quarterfinal showdown.
Gauff’s path to the final eight begins against a qualifier (yet to be determined). The level of competition goes up several notches from this point for Gauff as the R32 could see her face compatriot Amanda Anisimova or dangerous floater Linda Noskova, who was a runner-up to Sabalenka in the Adelaide International 1 tournament earlier this year.
Then, the R16 could pit the American teen against in-form No, 9 seed Belinda Bencic, who has two titles to her credit this season – Adelaide International 2 and Abu Dhabi. Alternatively, Gauff could face Shuai Zhang, Marta Kostyuk or Jil Teichmann.
Sabalenka is appearing in her second tournament since claiming her maiden Grand Slam title Down Under. The 2023 Australian Open champion is a solid 13-1 on the season, with a recent quarterfinal appearance at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis championships, where she lost to eventual tournament winner Barbora Krejcikova.
Ironically, Sabalenka and Krejcikova have fallen into the same section of the fourth quarter and are on track to reprise their matchup in the Indian Wells R16. Before then, Sabalenka will take on the winner of the first round matchup between Alize Cornet and Evgeniya Rodina. In the R32, Donna Vekic, Lin Zhu or a qualifier are possible opponents.
Krejcikova, without doubt, looms as the biggest obstacle in Sabalenka’s path to the quarterfinals. However, other possible challengers in the R16 are Elise Mertens, Xinyu Wang, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Anna Bondar or Dayana Yastremska.
