Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023

This is your year! It’s the year when you can indulge in the props of Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. And we’re here to provide you with all the necessary information on how to do it.

You’re placing your bets on the biggest sporting event on July 4th, but be aware that you’ll be facing one of the most dominant favorites in all of sports. Joey Chestnut is on the verge of becoming the 16-time world champion in hotdog eating, surpassing Rafael Nadal’s 14 French Open wins and cementing himself as arguably the most accomplished champion in the sport.

So how should you approach an event where the odds-on favorite is priced at no less than -2500? That’s a great question. We’ll delve into the specifics of various betting options available to you.

Historical Background

The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has a long and somewhat dubious history. For years, its main promoter insisted that the event dated back to 1916. While there might be some truth to that claim, records prior to the 1970s are unreliable at best. It wasn’t until 1979 that the contest started running consistently on the Fourth of July.

Over the subsequent decades, both the event and the sport itself experienced significant growth, eventually leading to the creation and merger with Major League Eating (MLE). Since 1997, MLE has sanctioned the event, stipulating that only competitive eaters under contract with them are eligible to participate in the contest.

A few years later, a formidable force emerged in the form of Takeru Kobayashi, a Japanese phenomenon that shattered records. In 2001, he doubled the previous record by devouring 50 Hot Dogs and Buns (HDBs). He went on to win six consecutive Mustard Belt titles.

In 2007, everything changed when a young and rising challenger surpassed his previous performances and defeated the reigning champion by consuming 66 HDBs compared to 63. The following year, the organizers reduced the contest time from 12 to 10 minutes, but Joey Chestnut’s reign of dominance remained unchallenged. The only exception was Matt Stonie’s unexpected victory in 2015, breaking Chestnut’s streak of 15 consecutive wins.

In 2011, the contest introduced a women’s event, with Sonya Thomas emerging as the inaugural champion by consuming 40 HDBs. She won the next two contests before being dethroned by Miki Sudo in 2014. Since then, Sudo has consistently claimed victory in the women’s division, except for 2021 when she couldn’t compete due to her pregnancy.

Present Day

Today, Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is more popular than ever. After being relocated due to COVID-19 in 2020 and temporarily changing venues the following year, the event returns to Coney Island in Brooklyn for the second consecutive year.

Critics have argued that Chestnut’s record-breaking 75 HDBs in 2020 were influenced by the fact that the event took place indoors under controlled climatic conditions. They compared it to Chestnut eating in his own kitchen rather than enduring the hot and humid conditions of Coney Island, with thousands of enthusiastic fans cheering him on. (Yes, weather and crowd do matter!) Chestnut silenced much of that criticism when he devoured 76 hot dogs the following year in an outdoor setting.

During the 2022 event, Chestnut faced challenges such as a ruptured tendon in his leg and a protester storming the stage. However, he displayed his toughness by putting the protester in a chokehold and slamming him to the ground. Although no new record was set that day, Chestnut still managed to consume 63 HDB eaten.

Betting Advice

Come Tuesday, weather forecasters predict conditions to be a bit warmer than they were last year. Forecasts call for a high of 81 degrees with 5-10 mph winds. (Chestnut’s record-setting 76 HDBs came under cloudy skies and a temperature of 68 with 55% humidity.)

Oddsmakers have seemingly sharpened up. Last year, Geoffrey Esper, ranked second on the Major League Eating rankings – he was a +225 favorite to clinch second place. This year, the odds are much, much shorter at -225. Next on the board is little-known Australian eater James Webb at +200. Webb seemingly came out of nowhere in 2023’s event to finish third with 41 HDB eaten.

Nick Wehry, the boyfriend of the previously mentioned Miki Sudo, enters at +240, down from last season’s odds of +325. Darron Breeden has seen his odds move in the last 10 hours from +600 to +700. He was +550 going into last year’s event.

Joey Chestnut

• Westfield, IN
• Age: 39
• MLE Ranking: #1

Chestnut is only worth it if he can be parlayed with other bets at -3000 to -5000. Do not fade him, but also you can’t be sure if he’ll beat his own personal record. If you can, throw him in any weekend parlay you may have to go.

Now, if you’re comfortable with a 2-3% return on investment after a 10-minute contest, then go for it. Lay the jaw-dropping number with Chestnut and watch him eat his way to making your lunch money. But if you’re seeking a higher risk-return than that, you’ll have to look outside of Chestnut’s food hole and his props to win the hot dog contest.

Chestnut could easily win this contest without coming close to breaking another personal record. Since his 2015 loss, the closest margin of any competitor against Chestnut was 10 — meaning he can practically name his own winning number. It’s up to his metabolism and how he feels that day as to whether or not a new world record will be set. The odds to see a new record set, rest at +185 with the “no” option at -280. His total sits at 73½ juiced to the under at -130.

One of the more fun prop bets on the board is Chestnut’s total added to Sudo’s total. The current number sits at 116.5. This will be rather tricky to tell, as last year had many wild cards impacting the participants’ final numbers. If not for Chestnut almost choke-slamming somebody and it being Sudo’s first year back in competition, the final tally could have looked a lot different than the total of 103 that was posted. To get over that mark, it seems Chestnut will need to do the heavy lifting of increasing his total well beyond last year’s HDB eaten.

Keeping that in mind, his average at the halfway mark is 46, so there’s a slight lean for the over at 45.5. He also gets slower as he goes along, illustrated by the book’s odds per minute. He’s projected 11.5 for the first minute but the projection per minute goes down by one almost every minute after.

Geoffrey Esper

• Oxford, MA
• Age: 48
• MLE Ranking: #2

Oddsmakers give Geoffrey Esper quite a bit of credit. His over/under this year is 50.5 juiced to the under at -125. His previous personal best was 50. A three-dog improvement isn’t unthinkable for an eater in form, as the 47-year-old earned another three records in other events so far this year. He put down 47.5 in 2022. His current prop sits at 50.5 juiced to the under at -125.

Esper may never earn the number-one rank on the MLE Top 50 but currently holds the second-place ranking with the intention of holding it. His total seems correctly handicapped, so while he might merit a lean to the over, it’s hard to recommend a play on either side.

Miki Sudo

• Tampa, FL
• Age: 37
• MLE Ranking: #3

Sudo was forced to sit out 2021 after it was announced she was expecting her first child with fellow participant Wehry. That was coming off a contest in which she set a personal record of 48.5 HDB eaten. She didn’t need to exert herself much in her return in 2022, as her 40 HDB eaten was enough to defeat Michelle Lesco’s 26 HDB eaten among the women competitors.

Her total is set at 43.5 going into this year, narrowly juiced to the under at -130. The only time she went over that mark in her eight contests was in 2021. Was the 48.5 a sign of things to come and that there’s still room for more? The odds for the women’s record to be broken sits at +200.

Nick Wehry

• Tampa, FL
• Age: 34
• MLE Ranking: #4

Similarly, Nick Whery enters with a total of 47.5 HDBs — a whopping 3.5 above his current personal best of 44. Although one of the more active eaters on the scene, it’s hard not to lean to the under here with Wehry especially with close to flat odds.

One of the more fun prop bets on the board is a head-to-head matchup of Wehry and Sudo. The betting odds favor Wehry, although narrowly, at -130. As previously mentioned, Sudo’s personal best is 48.5 HDB. Wehry and Sudo each ate 40 HDB in 2022.

James Webb

• Sydney, Australia
• Age: 34
• MLE Ranking: #10

Webb seems to be one of the participants to keep an eye on this year, and the odds board reflects that. In an interview with news.com.au back in May, Webb has a goal of 50 HDB eaten. The oddsmakers got wind of that and are now available to take action.

Webb is +125 to eat 50 HDB, +500 for 60, and +900 to eat 70 or more. You can also bet Webb to finish in the top three at -150, top five at -500, and -900 for the top 10. In last year’s contest, he narrowly edged Wehry for third place by just one HDB eaten.

Darron Breeden

• Orange, VA
• Age: 34
• MLE Ranking: #6

Books set Darron Breeden’s total at 42.5, an unusually low total considering his personal best is 50 and he’s exceeded his posted total for three of the last four years. If it’s still available, it only makes sense to play Breeden over the total.

Michelle Lesco

• Tucson, AZ
• Age: 39
• MLE Ranking: #9

Michelle Lesco hoisted the women’s Mustard-Yellow belt last year in Sudo’s absence. And while she is unlikely to beat Sudo this year, her total on the board of 31.5 seems slightly high than what her expectation should be.

Her personal best is 32 which came back in 2017 while last year she posted a total of 30¾ HDBs (the lowest-ever winning total for the women’s event). Lesco holds no recent records in her bio but is still active this season. Nevertheless, her total of 31.5 seems properly priced and deserves a pass, as does her longshot odds of +1100 to beat Sudo for the women’s title.

Lesco won last year’s contest with Sudo out, but her career-high of 30¾ still pales to Sudo’s record of 48.5. In fact, Sudo’s lowest contest-winning total of 31 dogs is even higher than Lesco’s personal best.

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