The longest break in the Formula 1 Championship calendar is over. The summer break between the Belgian and Dutch Grands Prix gave teams time to recharge ahead of the second leg of the 2023 F1 season. Starting this week, the teams will have four events in five weeks. The F1 Heineken Dutch Grand Prix 2023 marks Formula 1’s third trip to the Netherlands in the modern era. Each of the first two F1 races were wins for Dutch driver Max Verstappen, who looks to make it three in a row this weekend.
Verstappen favored to continue his winning streak
The home hero’s incredible lead in the F1 drivers championship gives a massive gap heading into the second half of the season. It’s been months since someone else stood on the top step of the podium. Even if every other team brings updates to Zandvoort, the Red Bull package is so far ahead of the rest of the field it won’t make a huge difference. Verstappen’s fittingly favored for the win at -400.
The weather forecast shows light rain throughout the weekend. Unless that rain increases, there’s no reason to believe anyone is stopping Verstappen on Sunday.
This weekend features one of the biggest margins between Verstappen’s odds and everyone else we’ve seen this season. Verstappen’s teammate Sergio Perez is next in F1 odds for victory at +900, followed by Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton at +1400 each. None of those three will be on the top step except for difficult conditions or a shock car issue.
Verstappen’s -250 to get pole position as well. Qualifying will be crucial due to the nature of Zandvoort’s banked and lower-speed turns. Short straights negate Red Bull’s large DRS advantage but its aero package will still keep it ahead of the field.
But if you’re looking for a flyer in qualifying, consider Norris (+700). The McLaren package looked great in another high-downforce circuit (Hungary) and has improved greatly over the recent 2023 F1 schedule.
Podium, points, and other odds to consider for the F1 Heineken Dutch Grand Prix 2023
Zandvoort is one of the slower-speed, shorter tracks to open the second half of the season. Oddsmakers like a podium of Verstappen (-900) and Perez (-200), but it’s a tie for the third spot between Norris and Hamilton (both +120).
Norris’ had good results in Zandvoort over the last two years, given McLaren’s pace in each of those seasons. The McLaren team had a recovery drive in Belgium due to their setup and will be back on the pace this week. Hamilton had a shock pole in Hungary but dropped to fourth by the chequered flag. Given how hard it is to pass, he’ll need another good qualifying result to stay ahead of Perez.
Oddsmakers favor 10 drivers to earn points this weekend: Verstappen (-1200), Perez (-1000), Norris (-800), Hamilton (-700), Charles Leclerc (-600), Oscar Piastri (-600), George Russell (-500), Carlos Sainz (-400), Fernando Alonso (-400), and Lance Stroll (-165).
Those odds align with the top five teams of the season: Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari, and Aston Martin. A track like Zandvoort will likely favor the Aston Martin more than the Belgian or British Grands Prix did. The team needs it as it’s starting to backslide from its early season success. Luckily, Aston Martin banked a lot of points early to stay firmly in second in the F1 constructors standings 2023. But with improvements from everyone else behind Red Bull, it could be tough to stay ahead.
Potential points surprises could be either Alpine drivers Pierre Gasly or Esteban Ocon (both +140). Considering the uncertainty in the garage after a massive management shake-up, it’s hard to feel confident about them this weekend. Alfa Romeo had a fantastic qualifying performance in Hungary but undid it all within the opening laps of the race, making either driver a tough choice.
Instead, look for Yuki Tsunoda to get in the points this weekend at +350. The Alpha Tauri is a handful and lacks straight-line speed, but that’ll be less of a factor around Zandvoort. Tsunoda earned just his third points finish in Belgium right before the summer break. A good qualifying day and management on Sunday could keep him in the top 10. Alex Albon’s (+175) has been a good points bet for much of 2023, but this weekend could be challenging at a track that does not suit the Williams package.
Though Aston is struggling, look for Alonso to break the top six at +175. In some order, the top five could be Verstappen, Perez, Norris, Hamilton, and Piastri. That just leaves the two Ferraris and Russell for Alonso to outpace. The last time Spain won a World Cup, Alonso won the subsequent race. He could get another boost in the following race thanks to Spain winning the women’s World Cup this past weekend.
Predictions for the F1 Heineken Dutch Grand Prix 2023
The 2023 Formula 1 season has been one of the most dominant in series history. Red Bull and Verstappen are easily driving away with the title ahead of the field. In his home race, it’s hard to imagine Verstappen losing out to anyone else. He’s the reason there is a Dutch Grand Prix on the calendar.
We like Norris and Hamilton to fill out the rest of the podium with potential qualifying issues again for Perez, dropping him back down the order to start. A top-six finish for Alonso and a top-10 result for Tsunoda are high-reward options for this weekend as well.
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