Despite starting sixth after a track limits violation in qualifying, Max Verstappen came through on Sunday to win the United States Grand Prix. This win is his 15th of 2023 and ties the record he set last year for most in one season. This week, the F1 teams head to Mexico City for the second of three races in consecutive weeks. The Mexican Grand Prix odds point to Verstappen making history once again this weekend.
Verstappen with another big lead in odds for victory
The world champion isn’t letting up after securing his third title. Verstappen’s won the last three races on the trot, including two from pole, and continues to widen his gap at the top of the standings.
The Mexican Grand Prix is one of Red Bull’s best tracks on the calendar. It’s a high-speed track, but due to the elevation, all F1 teams run Monaco-spec wings. Mexico’s one of Verstappen’s best tracks; four wins is the second-most of any track on the calendar behind Austria. It’s hard to imagine anyone else standing on the top step this weekend.
Sergio Perez (+700)
Perez may be the next-best option in case something happens to Verstappen. He’s been behind for much of the year, especially in the second half of the Formula 1 schedule 2023. But this is a track he could improve at. Rear-limited tracks with harder braking zones are where he thrives. His best win in 2023 (Azerbaijan) came at this track type. It’d take a significant turnaround in form from the last four races, but it’s possible.
Lewis Hamilton (+1000)
Hamilton and Mercedes will look for an improved result this weekend after being disqualified in Austin. These odds reflect the car’s improved pace since Singapore, where teammate George Russell was, at times, the fastest car on the track. Hamilton would need some luck for a win, but it is possible.
Carlos Sainz (+3300)
Sainz surprisingly sits much lower in F1 odds for victory compared to the likes of Hamilton and Perez. He’s Ferrari’s better driver since the summer break and managed the car through a difficult weekend in Austin. Mexico’s track layout will better suit the Ferraris thanks to the slower corners. It’d be a surprise, but we’ve already seen Sainz earn a shock win in 2023.
Mexican Grand Prix odds: podium finish
Verstappen (-750), Perez (-150), Hamilton (-150)
Oddsmakers like this combination, given Verstappen’s form, Perez’s home track, and Hamilton’s performance in Austin. This scenario is possible, but Perez or Hamilton could likely fall out due to a lack of pace. The latter will probably race better at the next Formula 1 race in Brazil.
Lando Norris (+120)
Norris finished third on track last week but was promoted to second after Hamilton’s disqualification. He may have a tougher time here than Austin with the bigger wings and track layout, but he has shown in the second half of 2023 that he’s often in the right place at the right time for podiums.
Sainz has been a smooth operator since the summer break. Three podiums in the last five races have him closing the gap to Fernando Alonso in the F1 championship standings. He’ll likely have a better run in Mexico than Austin and is the form driver at Ferrari.
Mexican Grand Prix odds: points finish
Verstappen (-1200), Charles Leclerc (-700), Hamilton (-700), Perez (-700), Sainz (-600), Norris (-600), George Russell (-500), Oscar Piastri (-400), Alonso (-300), Esteban Ocon (-150), Pierre Gasly (-150)
Oddsmakers have these 11 drivers favored for a top-10 result on Sunday. Lately, Aston Martin’s been struggling, most recently with brake cooling issues in Austin. Alonso may find himself out of the top 10. One of the Alpine drivers will likely struggle, as well as the car’s been off the pace in recent rear-limited circuits.
Alex Albon (+175)
Another week could mean another points finish for Albon. Mexico’s high-speed layout will favor the Williams’ low-drag car and could make it hard to catch down the multiple straights. Albon shined at Monza, a similarly rear-limited, high-speed track. Look for him to break into the top 10 here.
Nico Hulkenberg (+1000)
Is this a very long shot? Yes. Are Haas struggling despite a recent update? Also yes. But Hulkenberg’s record in Mexico is impressive. He’s finished in the top 10 in four of his five career races there. A retirement in 2017 due to engine problems is the sole reason he didn’t go five for five. He hasn’t made the top 10 since Australia but could surprise this week.
Mexican Grand Prix predictions
Verstappen’s re-writing much of the Formula 1 record book this season and this week could see another record fall. Red Bull has a history of success in Mexico City, and it’d take a shock failure or crash to take Verstappen out of the running.
Look for Sainz and Perez to join him on the podium this weekend. Albon is a near-lock to make the top 10, and Hulkenberg is a high-reward option if you’re looking for a better payout.