France vs Poland Odds & Recap

Olivier Giroud made history, and Kylian Mbappe scored a brilliant double as holders France reached the World Cup quarter-finals with a 3-1 win over Poland.
Giroud broke the deadlock just half-time to become France’s all-time top goalscorer, and Mbappe, who beat records from Eusebio and Pele, struck twice after the break to seal a last-eight tie against England or Senegal on Saturday.

Robert Lewandowski netted a consolation penalty — rolled into the net at the second attempt after an encroachment — but France did well to beat Poland in the end as Didier Deschamps’s side boosted hopes of becoming only the third side to defend their World Cup crown.

The reigning champions took early control at Al Thumama Stadium and should have taken the lead on the half-hour mark when Dembele centered for Olivier Giroud, the striker stretching at the back post in vain.

But Poland, having warmed to the task, was somehow thwarted twice within seconds at the other end, as Hugo Lloris denied Piotr Zielinski, and then Varane cleared Jakub Kaminski’s rebound off the line. That heightened French angst, but Giroud settled nerves when he followed Kylian Mbappe’s pass with a brilliant angled finish to surpass Thierry Henry’s mark and take his tally to 52 goals for his country.

Mbappe saw a shot deflected just wide after the restart before a Giroud bicycle kick was disallowed after an earlier whistle, but the pair soon combined ruthlessly.

Mbappe smashed past Szczesny with 16 minutes remaining after a fine hold-up play from Giroud. The Paris Saint-German forward curled a stunning second, scoring his fifth goal of the tournament.

📊 Team Stats 📊

France	–	Poland
56%	Possession	44%
16	Total Shots	12
7	Shots on Target	3
6	Shots Wide	4
3	Shots Blocked	5
1	Saves	4
7	Corners	1
1	Yellow Cards	2
0	Red Cards	0
10	Fouls	8
3	Offsides	1
87%	Pass Accuracy	83%
11	Dribbles	16
25	Crosses	16
11	Tackles	17

Did We Get It Right?

Below you will find all the predictions we made before the matchup, on December 02, 2022.

Poland Make Long-Awaited Return to Knockout Stage

France managed to break the defending champions curse at the World Cup but they couldn’t snag a perfect group stage finish. Les Bleus coach Didier Deschamps rested his best players in a 1-0 loss in the group stage finale vs. Tunisia. So, they should have fresh legs when they take on Poland in the round of 16 on Sunday. Robert Lewandowski and Poland qualified for the knockout stage by the skin of their teeth and it marks a first round of 16 berth since 1986 for them. We’ll take a closer look at the France vs Poland odds in an all-European matchup.

Team Stats and Odds:

This will be the first match between France and Poland since a June 2011 friendly in Gdansk. France won 1-0 that day on an own goal and are unbeaten in the last seven meetings. The last five head-to-head meetings have finished with two goals or fewer. The only previous World Cup match between the two sides was the third place game in 1982. Poland won 3-2 on the day and this round of 16 match brings another opportunity to bet on France vs Poland odds.

France boss Didier Deschamps made nine changes to the starting XI in the group stage finale vs. Tunisia. After a 2-1 win vs. Denmark, France sealed a knockout stage berth and were nearly guaranteed to finish first in Group D. A team full of French backups fell behind in the 58th minute to a Wahbi Khazri strike. Deschamps brought on star players like Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann to provide a spark and it appeared they got an equalizer in stoppage time. Griezmann’s goal was called back and France lost 1-0 to Tunisia but finished first in Group D.

Despite the result, France’s stars got some rest heading into Sunday’s crucial round of 16 match vs. Poland. Expect Mbappe, Griezmann, Ousmane Dembele and Olivier Giroud all to slot back into the team. They formed a formidable attack in the first two matches, in which France scored six goals. Mbappe, who only played 30 minutes on Wednesday, has already scored three goals and is the favorite to win the Golden Boot. He currently sits at +275 FIFA 2022 odds to be the tournament’s top scorer. The PSG superstar has been making life hell for opposing right backs.

Coming into Sunday’s match, defender Lucas Hernandez is out and Marcus Thuram is probable. The backup forward was in contention to start vs. Tunisia but sat out with an illness. With France’s round of 16 lineup expected to be almost completely different from the Tunisia game to the Poland one, take France’s loss with a grain of salt. The defending champions were the first team to seal a knockout stage berth and look ready for another run at the trophy.

Poland entered their group stage finale vs. Argentina in first place in the Group C 2022 FIFA World Cup standings. However, they weren’t expected to finish that way as Argentina came in at -225 odds to leapfrog them. Plus, if they lost and Saudi Arabia defeated Mexico, Poland were going to exit in the group stage for a fourth straight World Cup appearance. As expected, Poland fell to Argentina, by a 2-0 scoreline.

Mexico nearly looked like they’d pull off the impossible and qualify over Poland by overturning a four-goal deficit in goal difference. El Tri, leading Saudi Arabia 2-0, just needed one more goal to advance and they incredibly managed to get it. However, it was called back for offside and Saudi Arabia scored to make the match finish 2-1. So, Poland managed to qualify for their first round of 16 since 1986.

Poland are a team that can compete with anyone but don’t string together great results consistently. Having legendary striker Robert Lewandowski means that they’ll always pose an attacking threat. However, he doesn’t always receive great service as Poland oftentimes find themselves on the back foot. Lewandowski got his first ever World Cup goal vs. Saudi Arabia and he’ll undoubtedly want to add to his tally here. Midfielder Piotr Zielinski is another player to watch on a Poland.

Match Analysis and Odds:

France come into this match having never lost a round of 16 tie in five previous matches. So, it’s no surprise that the France vs Poland odds list France as -340 favorites for this round of 16 fixture. France are also favored by 1½ goals and show -115 odds to cover the spread here. It’s incredibly rare that Poland lose two matches in a row by a two-goal margin and they sit at -105 odds to avoid that fate here.

Meanwhile, Poland’s moneyline odds come in at +1000 and they’ve never won a round of 16 match at the World Cup before. They did, however, finish in third place in both 1974 and 1982 before the current format was adopted. Coincidentally enough, the last time Poland defeated France was in 1982. It’s going to be incredibly difficult for right back Matty Cash to shut down Kylian Mbappe. Poland’s best hope in the match seems to be defending in numbers and hoping for a counter attack goal.

Despite the last five meetings between the two sides finishing under 2½ goals, over 2½ sits at -120 odds.

France are explosive offensively, and a team with their front four will always have opportunities. There’s no reason Les Bleus shouldn’t dominate the game in midfield so it should come down to how clinical they can be with their chances.

France vs Poland FAQ

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