Winner Takes Fourth in Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions, Odds and Team News
Atletico Madrid Coming Off Rough Week
Last week was brutal for Diego Simeone and Atletico Madrid. First, they blew their first leg lead in the Champions League Quarter-Final and fell 5-4 to Borussia Dortmund, on aggregate. Then, they fell 2-0 at Alaves in La Liga last Sunday. On Saturday, Atleti will be looking to get back on track when they host Copa del Rey champions Athletic Club. Despite winning their first Copa del Rey crown since 1984, Bilbao are winless in their last three in La Liga. As the winner will take fourth place, we’ll make some Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predictions.
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club
Date, time:
Location: Estadio Civitas Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predictions may take into account the fact that Bilbao have won three times vs. Atletico Madrid this season. At the end of February, Athletic Club defeated Atletico Madrid 3-0 in the second leg of the Copa del Rey Semifinal. Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams and Gorka Guruzeta all got on the scoresheet for the hosts, who were +145 favorites.
Bilbao also handed Atletico Madrid their first home loss in 29 matches in the first leg, when the visitors won 1-0. Athletic Club also won the La Liga reverse fixture, 2-0, and have lost just two of the last nine meetings, in all competitions.
Atletico Struggling on Defense
Alaves did their best to help fellow Basque club Athletic Bilbao out by defeating Atletico Madrid 2-0 last Sunday. Visitors Atletico had their chances but couldn’t manage to get on the scoresheet. Usually known for defense, Atletico have been uncharacteristically weak on that end of the pitch this season.
Simeone’s men have conceded in each of their last 12 games, in all competitions. Jan Oblak has been touted as one of the best keepers in the world for quite some time but he hasn’t looked world class in 2023-24.
The Slovenian shot stopper has registered -2.4 post shot expected goals minus goals allowed. In layman’s terms, he’s stopping fewer shots than would be expected given the shots he’s faced. It would be unfair to blame Oblak for their defensive woes, though, as Atletico are on pace to concede their most goals since the 2011-12 La Liga season. Plus, they’ve lost three of their last five La Liga fixtures.
Atletico’s leading scorer in La Liga, Alvaro Morata, missed their last game. Morata has scored 14 goals this season and he’s listed as doubtful for this match. Thomas Lemar and Memphis Depay are expected to miss this one, while Stefan Savic is suspended. Atletico Madrid enter the weekend just three points ahead of Athletic Bilbao and desperately need a result here.
Athletic Club Have Drawn Last Three 90 Minute Games
Athletic Club enter the weekend in fifth place in the La Liga standings. With a win on Saturday, they’d leapfrog fourth-placed Atletico based on head-to-head goal difference. However, Bilbao haven’t won any of their last three matches in La Liga. Over the weekend, Athletic Club failed to make the most of their chances in a 1-1 draw vs. Granada. Granada didn’t have a shot on target but Iñaki Williams inadvertently headed the ball into his own net on a corner.
After going down 1-0, Bilbao bombarded the Granada penalty area. Gorka Guruzeta got a goal to equalize and nearly put Athletic up. Williams had a good chance of his own but Athletic Club had to settle for a draw. Including the penalty kick victory in the Copa del Rey Final, Athletic Club have drawn their last three matches by a 1-1 scoreline.
While Bilbao have only lost one match at the San Mames this season, their road La Liga scores have been underwhelming. They are just 5-5-5 on the road in the league. Athletic Club did end Atletico Madrid’s home unbeaten streak earlier this season in the Copa del Rey. However, Bilbao have beaten just one top half team away from home in La Liga this season. Plus, bettors can expect Yuri Berchiche and Aitor Paredes to miss this match due to injuries. Oscar de Marcos is also suspended for the visitors.
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Match Analysis & Odds
Bettors can take Atletico Madrid to win at -105 and Athletic Bilbao to get their fourth straight win over Atleti at +300. A draw comes in at +260, while Athletic Club +0.5 sits at -115. Only one team has managed to get on the scoresheet in each of the last six meetings between Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao.
Atletico Madrid have scored just two times vs. Bilbao during that time. If ever there were a time to reverse that trend, it’s right now. Atletico Madrid are in a precarious position here and won’t want to cede control of the last Champions League spot with just a few more games left to play.
Bettors should note that Athletic Club have scored just three goals in their last six La Liga road games and are 1-2-3 during that time. The first of our Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predictions is that this will be a low scoring match. Under 2.5 goals currently show -120 odds. We also think Atletico Madrid will avoid defeat here and stay in fourth place, which makes Atletico Madrid “Draw no Bet” at -250 odds a potential pick.
