Jays vs Rays Series Preview: Can the Rays Take First in AL East?
The Rays Have Two More Weeks to Get Ahead In AL East Standings
We’re on postseason watch!
The Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays will play a three-game series over the weekend.
The Blue Jays are one of three teams fighting for the final two AL Wild Card spots. Every game is super essential for Toronto.
On the other hand, the Rays will ultimately earn that No. 1 seed in the AL Wild Card. However, they still have a chance at winning the AL East.
We’re just a couple of weeks away from the postseason. This series could help us see the AL Wild Card picture more clearly.
Which AL East team will get the series win?
Here’s the Jays vs Rays Series preview for this exciting AL East series.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays 
Day/Time:
Location: Tropicana Field
Alek Manoah’s Season Has Ended
This wasn’t what the Blue Jays had in mind at the start of the season.
Toronto gave Alek Manoah the Opening Day start this year after he held a 2.24 ERA in 31 starts last season.
Manoah finished with a 3.22 ERA in 20 games in his rookie season in 2021. Then, in 2022, he added a 16-7 record with a 2.24 ERA and a .99 WHIP.
But for whatever reason, he couldn’t figure it out this year.
Manoah officially finished this year’s season with a 3-9 record and an ERA of 5.87. His WHIP jumped to 1.74, and he struggled even more in the minors when sent down.
The Blue Jays were patient with Manoah. But eventually, in a playoff race, Toronto couldn’t keep trotting him out there.
In recent weeks, he’s had extensive visits with doctors. Inside those visits, he’s been receiving shots in his right arm to reduce inflammation and discomfort.
There’s no structural damage or ligament tears in the 25-year-old’s arm. But these shots mean that he’ll be done pitching in 2023. Not just with the Blue Jays but within the minor league system.
Hopefully, the former ace can figure himself out again in spring training next season.
Tampa Bay Feels Good About Its Bullpen
At the beginning of the season. the Tampa Bay Rays weren’t pitching as well out of the bullpen as many suggested they would.
The Rays got off to a hot start, winning 40 of their first 58 games. But the bullpen struck out only 19% of batters.
That’s not very typical for a Tampa Bay bullpen.
Then, in May, the bullpen added only 18% of strikeouts. That was the worst rate in baseball during the two months. The Rays earned fewer strikeouts than the Athletics, who had an ERA of 6.23 in the bullpen through those first two months.
However, since June, the Rays have the highest strikeout rate in the MLB, striking out 27% of batters. In four months, they’ve become one of the best bullpens in baseball, thanks to a much higher strikeout rate.
Since the April and May months, there’s been some turnover in the bullpen. Most of the guys that started the season with the Rays are no longer on the major league roster. A few were released, and others were sent to minors.
The Rays traded for Robert Stephenson in June, added Jake Diekman after he was released from the White Sox, and finally got a healthy Pete Fairbanks in the bullpen.
Meanwhile, Colin Poche was one of the few players who stayed on the roster all season long. But he’s getting a higher chase rate than earlier this season. Shawn Armstrong is another arm that’s back and finally healthy for the Rays.
The Tampa Bay front office is special. They always amaze. This is just another moment where they’ve shined.
Early Odds: RL Tampa Bay -1.5 (+140), ML Tampa Bay -155, O/U 7.5 -110/-110
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Chris Bassitt vs Tyler Glasnow
Chris Bassitt is expected to make his next start in the first game of the Jays vs Rays series preview. Bassitt hasn’t earned a high strikeout rate. But he’s limited teams to 6% of walks and a .307 wOBA. The righty has allowed a higher rate of fly balls to lefties, but he’s been dominant against righties in almost every category.
Bassitt will take on Tyler Glasnow of the Rays. Glasnow has struck out nearly 36% of batters in the last month. He’s also held teams to a .305 wOBA in the previous 30 days. Glasnow will allow a high fly ball rate and a .179 ISO over the last month. But most batters aren’t even able to put the ball in play.
Toronto has hit a .162 ISO and wOBA of .310 against righties over the last month. George Springer and Spencer Horwitz have hit righties with a high ISO of at least .200 and wOBA of .372. Meanwhile, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, and Kevin Kiermaier have also put up solid ISO numbers and don’t strike out often against righties.
Meanwhile, the Rays have a bunch of lefties who can get the ball in the air. Brandon Lowe, Luke Raley, and Josh Lowe are the three lefties that come to mind.
With the Rays sitting at -155, and the total at 7.5, I like the Under in this MLB matchup. We rarely get MLB lines with two excellent pitchers.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Hyun Jin Ryu vs Zack Littell
The MLB schedules are a bit hectic over the weekend. But this game certainly deserves a 4:10 p.m. ET start time.
Hyun Jin Ryu will get the start for the Blue Jays. He’s a lefty who has thrown only about 78 pitches per start in the last month. He’s walked over 15% of lefties in the previous 30 days and has given up a .256 ISO to his last 82 righties. Ryu typically faces more righties than lefties because he’s a left-handed pitcher. His fly ball rate to righties is a bit high at 27.7%, but he doesn’t give much line drive contact and has kept hard contact down to righties this year.
Tampa Bay’s projected lineup has hit a .245 ISO and wOBA of .407 against lefties over the last month. They’ve also struck out just 17.6% of the time. Only Brandon Lowe and Harold Ramirez have struggled to hit for power over the previous month against lefties.
On the other hand, the Blue Jays will take on Zach Littell of the Rays. Littell was a former reliever who became a starter with the Rays this season. He’s struck out only 17.5% of batters and has allowed a .242 ISO and wOBA of .348 to his last 70 lefties. Littell has been OK against righties, but lefties have had some success against him.
Toronto’s offense isn’t nearly as special. We’d back the Rays in Game 2. Tampa Bay typically puts up better baseball scores.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Yusei Kikuchi vs Taj Bradley
Yusei Kikuchi will earn the start in the Jays vs Rays series preview finale. Kikuchi’s last start was a bit shorter due to cramps. He discussed with the media that he thought the cramps were due to only getting 11 hours of sleep.
Kikuchi gets about 13 hours of sleep per night.
It seems like that’s been working for him. Kikuchi has struck out 29% of batters in the last month and has held teams to a .142 ISO in that same time. Kikuchi should try and get those extra two hours of sleep moving forward!
On the other hand, it’ll be Taj Bradley on the mound for the Braves. Bradley is a rookie pitcher, allowing a .304 ISO and wOBA of .349 over the last month. He’s still got a high strikeout rate nearing 28%. However, righties have hit a .390 ISO and wOBA of .420 against him over the last month.
This game has the most potential of going over the total.
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