Mets vs Braves Preview: Division Rivals Face Off For First Time
Atlanta's Lineup Is Legendary But Pitching Questions Abound
Ho hum, the Atlanta Braves just swept the reigning National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks to improve to 6-2 and lengthen an NL East lead that they may not relinquish all year. Now, they welcome in the rival New York Mets for a four-game series. New York is coming off a much-needed road series win over the upstart Cincinnati Reds but the Mets have yet to solve their season-long offensive woes. The Mets vs Braves betting lines heavily favor Atlanta.
While Atlanta’s lineup continues to mash at historic levels, there is some concern regarding the Braves’ rotation which has been mediocre this year and just lost Spencer Strider to an elbow injury — he might need Tommy John surgery. The Braves have some useful Triple-A depth to fill in during the short-term, but losing a Cy Young candidate for any time is a huge blow. There is also concern about Max Fried, who has been lit up in both of his 2024 starts. Atlanta doesn’t need great pitching to win MLB games today in the regular season, but they will in the postseason.
New York had a disastrous start to the year, losing its first five games thanks to a complete lack of offensive production or defensive support. Things have stabilized a bit, though, and the Mets have won three of four due to surprisingly good starting pitching. They’ll look to keep that going against a scary offense.
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves 
Location: Truist Park
Day/Time:
Mets’ Rotation Is Getting By
New York’s starting rotation was filled with question marks heading into this season, even before staff ace Kodai Senga went down with a shoulder injury. The Mets filled the gaps by signing Sean Manaea and Luis Severino and trading for Adrian Houser, all three of whom have been solid so far. Houser will get the nod on Tuesday against Reynaldo Lopez, and Severino will start Thursday’s matinee against Fried.
To replace the injured Tylor Megill, New York made another interesting move last week by signing longtime Brave Julio Teheran. He’ll start today’s opener against fellow veteran Charlie Morton. The MLB odds don’t expect Teheran to fare well with Atlanta’s bats, which have a ridiculous team batting average of .300 and OPS of .886. Both of those marks are easily the best in baseball. Atlanta is a -220 moneyline favorite for Monday’s game while the Mets are +190 underdogs. The Braves are big favorites to take the series too.
Teheran was fine in the 14 appearances (11 starts) he made for the Brewers in 2023, posting a 4.40 ERA. He doesn’t miss too many bats at this point in his career, and that’s something that is needed to tame the Braves’ aggressive lineup. It could be a tough outing for him to return to the Majors in.
José Quintana will start Wednesday’s game against Chris Sale, who has looked good for the Braves in his two starts. Quintana and the rest of the Mets’ staff have the best ERA (2.71) in the NL, and the starting rotation has a 2.14 ERA, which is the best in the NL and third in the Majors.
Hope To Contain Braves
As the Mets vs. Braves betting lines indicate, the expectation is never that even a good pitching staff can shut down Atlanta’s offense, with four regulars boasting over a 1.000 OPS. Teams can simply hope to contain the Braves and get lucky that they hit into some hard outs or lose their plate discipline. There are some weaknesses to exploit, however, because they strike out a lot — 70 times, third-most in the NL — and don’t steal bases (just two). They also are last in the NL in walks.
This all means that the Braves rely on home runs and sustained rallies to score runs. Now, for many teams, this could be concerning because it shows an inability to produce runs in a variety of ways. For the Braves, it’s not a big deal since everyone in the lineup is (pretty much) a really good hitter. When a team is batting .300, it doesn’t need to walk or steal much or avoid strikeouts.
The goal for the Mets is to not give up any free bases to a team that certainly doesn’t need any, whether in the form of walks or defensive misplays. New York needs to play clean baseball on that side if they want to remain competitive in this series and upset the MLB betting lines.
New York’s Mystery Lineup
On paper, the Mets should have a well-above-average offensive lineup. With stars in Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso as well as Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Jeff McNeil to go with burgeoning youngsters like Brett Baty and Francisco Álvarez, New York has the makings of being a team that scores a lot. That just hasn’t come to pass in 2024 as the Mets are batting under .200 as a team and have a brutal .575 OPS. If the Braves are the offensive MLB stat leaders, the Mets are the offensive MLB stat trailers.
It’s hard to know which Mets offense will show up on a nightly basis but, so far, it’s mostly been the anemic one that doesn’t do any damage when guys are on base. Even with that said, the Mets vs Braves betting lines expect a lot of runs in this one. The over/under is set at 10 runs, a high figure even for a Braves game. Consider the under even though this is Teheran’s first start of the year and he might be on a pitch count. Betting-wise, also consider taking Atlanta at -120 on the run line.
