Phillies vs D’Backs Preview: Can Diamondbacks Tie NLCS at 2?
The Home Team Has Won All Three Games In NLCS
After the first two games of the NLCS, most of the public ruled the Diamondbacks out after heading into Game 3 down 2-0 in the series.
However, like Arizona has done all year, they faced adversity and escaped Game 3 to push the series to 2-1.
A win against the Phillies at home in Game 4 would put Arizona right back in the playoffs, tied 2-2.
With a likely bullpen game tonight, can the Diamondbacks survive the Phillies?
Take a look at our Phillies vs D’Backs preview for Game 4 of this NLCS.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Day/Time:
Location: Chase Field
Forgetting About Game 3
The Philadelphia Phillies have had one of the best second halves in the MLB this season. The success carried over into the postseason.
However, the Phillies struggled to do much offensively last night. This was a rare occurrence.
Philadelphia added only one run on three hits as they watched rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt add nine strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work.
Manager Rob Thomson exclaimed that the lack of success wasn’t due to a lack of focus. They were just beaten by terrific pitching, earning 13 strikeouts in Game 3 of the NLCS.
Philadelphia swears it won’t dwell on the loss and pick itself up for Game 4. That’s what good teams do.
Arizona Altered Its Approach In Game 3
After two straight losses to the Phillies in the NLCS, the Diamondbacks had to change some things up.
Arizona had to take more risks and be more daring on the basepaths. They had to force the Phillies into mistakes.
That allowed them to get into the playoffs despite earning just 84 wins on the year. But over the series’ first two games, they forgot what made them successful.
In Game 3, the Diamondbacks added nine hits and had Lourdes Gurriel steal a base in the late innings to give the Diamondbacks a chance. They were more daring. They were also more aggressive. And the pitching against Philadelphia was out of this world on Thursday.
You don’t just make the NLCS on accident. But sometimes, it’s easy to forget what got you there.
Arizona got so caught up in the Philadelphia craze on the road that they didn’t realize their full potential. It’s like Phillies fans brainwashed the Diamondbacks into thinking that they weren’t good enough. But as soon as Arizona got home, the Diamondbacks could clear their minds and get to work.
That helped them earn a 2-1 walk-off win against Philadelphia.
Check out our Phillies vs D’Backs preview for Game 4 of the NLCS.
Early Odds: Run Line Philadelphia -1.5 (+115) ML Philadelphia -134, O/U 9.5 -118/-104
âš¾ Game 4 âš¾
Friday, 8:07 p.m. ET
Christopher Sanchez vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Phillies Will Go With A Lefty
The Phillies had options. It came down to lefty Christopher Sanchez or right-hander Taijuan Walker for Game 4 of the NLCS.
Walker signed a $70 million deal with the Phillies in the offseason. He was good for the Phillies, but Christopher Sanchez was probably better.
Philadelphia loves how Sanchez matches up against lefties and righties. He’s held teams to a .187 ISO. and wOBA of .301 this year, earning 57.7% of ground balls.
This season, Sanchez has allowed a .213 ISO and wOBA of .331 to 316 righties. So there’s potential when it comes to the right-handed bats in the Arizona lineup. We also could see Taijuan Walker out of the bullpen in the third or fourth inning if Sanchez runs out of gas.
The three righties to watch out for in Arizona are Gabriel Moreno, Christian Walker, and Tommy Pham.
Moreno has hit a .375 ISO and wOBA of .485 against his last eight lefties. Meanwhile, Walker has slugged a .667 ISO and wOBA of .608 against his last seven lefties. Finally, Pham has a .375 ISO and woBA of .431 against his last nine lefties.
The Diamondbacks’ projected lineup has combined to strike out under 15% of the time. However, the power against lefties didn’t show up in the last game against the Phillies when lefty Ranger Suarez pitched.
Bullpen Game For Arizona
On the other hand, Arizona doesn’t have a true Game 4 starter. They’re going with a bullpen game. You can view this in many ways.
You can look at this like the Diamondbacks won’t have many great pitchers on the mound, or you can look at this game and think that the Diamondbacks will keep the Phillies off-balanced because of their consistently changing pitchers.
However, with Joe Mantiply getting the start, the Diamondbacks are already starting off on the wrong foot. Mantiply is a left-handed thrower, giving up a .242 ISO and wOBA of .333 to righties this season. He’ll face lefties like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper early, but he’ll also have to take on Trea Turner and potentially other righties in the first inning.
It’s unclear how far he’ll go in this game. We guess that he pitches one inning and gives the ball to a right-handed pitcher after facing Harper.
However, either way, the Phillies are hitting a .304 ISO and wOBA of .441 against lefties in the last month. Even Schwarber and Harper have hit high ISO and wOBA against lefties. Throwing out a subpar lefty just because Schwarber and Harper are at the top of the order won’t be very helpful.
Philadelphia’s lineup has also hit a .274 ISO and wOBA of .371 against righties in the last month.
According to the previous scores and odds, the Phillies are the favorites in this game. Philadelphia has shown off a lot of power in this series and will likely continue that power surge against bullpen pitchers who are just mediocre. The Arizona bullpen was never in the MLB leaders 2023 with pitching.
After reviewing the Phillies vs D’Backs preview and looking over the MLB lines, we like the Phillies on the moneyline at -134. We’d also consider the Over 9.5. Both teams have at least three sluggers that can do damage early in this game.
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