Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction: Can Arizona Earn Game 3 of the NLCS at Home?

The Philadelphia Phillies blitzed the Arizona Diamondbacks, earning a 10-0 victory in Game 2 of the NLCS. That puts the Diamondbacks in a tricky situation heading into Game 3, down 2-0.

However, we must remember that the home team typically has the advantage. The Phillies were home in the first two games and lost. And while Philadelphia will still have more home games than Arizona on the schedule, the Diamondbacks can get back into this series with two straight home wins themselves.

Take a look at our Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction for Game 3 of this NLCS.

Everyone’s Stepping Up For The Phillies

The Phillies have quite a few stars on the roster. But no one star has carried the team through the playoffs.

Each game has a different unsung hero. In Game 2, Kyle Schwarber smacked two home runs. Trea Turner also hit a long ball in the first inning, which proved to be the game-winning run, just one out into the first inning.

In previous games, it’s been Nick Castellanos or J.T. Realmuto. Bryce Harper had a multi-homerun game in the playoffs, too.

Plus, the starting pitching between Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez has been out of this world. Nola threw six innings against the Diamondbacks, allowing three hits and no runs. He also struck out seven and pushed his playoff ERA to 0.96. In the postseason, he’s 3-0 in his three starts for Philadelphia.

Maybe Arizona Needs Experience

The Arizona Diamondbacks sealed their first postseason trip since 2017. They went from a 110+ loss season to a playoff berth within three years.

However, the turnaround was primarily due to younger players like Corbin Carroll and the emergence of Christian Walker and Ketel Marte, to name a few.

Most of that 2017 team isn’t with the 2023 team anymore. Only Ketel Marte was in the starting lineup.

In 2017, the Diamondbacks still have Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock leading the way. Even J.D. Martinez was on the roster with David Peralta. It seems like it’s been forever since Goldschmidt was with the Diamondbacks. The rest of the players have all played with the Dodgers for at least a season now.

Experience will help this Arizona bunch. They’re not going anywhere. Arizona has a solid core of players and will continue to compete for the next few years.

The Phillies needed to taste the World Series before winning it. Arizona needed to taste the NLCS before winning it.

While the Diamondbacks still have a chance at earning a World Series bid, it’s unlikely that they will be down 2-0 in the series.

Check out our Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction for Game 3 of the NLCS.

Early Odds: Run Line Philadelphia -1.5 (+119) ML Philadelphia -127, O/U 9 -120/EV

Can Ranger Suarez Continue Magical Postseason Run?

Ranger Suarez finished 2023 with a 4-6 record, with a 4.18 ERA. That doesn’t sound so appealing. However, the left-hander has thrown a 1.04 ERA in two games this postseason.

He helped the Phillies earn two games against the Braves in the NLDS, including one game on the road. Suarez threw 3.2 innings on the road and allowed one hit, one walk, and four strikeouts.

In the Game 4 clincher, Suarez earned the win with five innings, allowing one run on three hits and earning two strikeouts. He won’t give you ace stuff. But he’ll keep you in the game.

Suarez only struck out 21.9% of batters this season. However, he kept opponents’ ISO down to .144 and walked under 9% of batters. He’s also very capable of earning ground balls. In 8.2 innings in the postseason, Suarez induced 13 ground balls to 11 fly balls.

He’ll face a Diamondbacks team that has plenty of potential against lefties. Ketel Marte, Tommy Pham, Christian Walker, and Gabriel Moreno have all hit lefties at an above-average rate, with high ISO and wOBA numbers in the last 30 days. The team has also struck out below 19% of the time against lefties in the previous month.

This season, Suarez allowed a .333 wOBA to 472 righties. All of those batters mentioned above are right-handed hitters.

Is There Too Much Pressure For The Rookie?

If you don’t like pressure, the MLB mound isn’t for you.

Brandon Pfaadt hasn’t pitched at an elite level in the postseason. But the rookie has at least given the Diamondbacks a chance to win each game.

He allowed three runs on seven hits in 2.2 innings against the Brewers in the NL Wild Card. However, Arizona still won that game 6-3.

He allowed two hits in 4.1 innings against the Dodgers in his second appearance.

The pressure never got to him. He won’t go deep like Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly. But he’ll give the Diamondbacks good innings.

Pfaadt finished the 2023 season with a 5.72 ERA and a 3-9 record as a rookie. He’s allowed more power to righties over the last month but was terrible against both sides of the plate throughout the season. The scores and odds never favored Pfaadt in the regular season. However, he’s helped the Diamondbacks to back-to-back wins in the postseason.

He wasn’t in the MLB leaders 2023 for rookie pitching. Other guys got the call-ups sooner and pitched better. But he’s got the luxury of throwing in the postseason.

However, Pfaadt has allowed a .348 ISO to his last 46 righties. He also gave up a .246 ISO and wOBA of .368 to 452 batters this season. With Philadelphia hitting for significant power in this series, Pfaadt is likely in trouble.

The Phillies have six bats hitting an above-average ISO against righties. When you look at those MLB lines, our Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction is Philadelphia earning the win. Take the Phillies moneyline -127.

If you’re looking for a total, the Over 9 makes the most sense.

For MLB betting news, standings, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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