Prop Bet Preview: MLB Runs Leader Odds

Major League Baseball Season Starts Thursday, March 30th

The Major League Baseball season is almost here, let’s take a peek at some of the players you should have your money behind to lead the league in Runs scored when the MLB schedule starts on March 30th. Today, MLB future picks are gaining steam in the industry, but there is a specific way to handicap most of these props other than looking at 2022 MLB player stats.

There may be some terrific options in this specific prop that are worth taking a shot at. Last season, the Yankees MVP Aaron Judge led the majors with 133 runs scored, 16 more than Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. The Cardinals Paul Goldschmidt who finished fourth with 106 runs scored is listed as the 15th choice at +2500.

Jose Altuve rounded out the top five in 2022 with 103 runs, but will not return until early June at the earliest due to a broken finger suffered in the World Baseball Classic. Besides Goldschmidt being the obvious omission from the top 10 odds, the New York Mets Brandon Nimmo is +4000 (24th choice) despite finishing 6th in runs scored (102 last year.

Let’s take a deeper look at MLB run leader odds to highlight three future wager candidates that have a legitimate chance to cash our ticket and a couple of players who are considered long shots, but may be well in the mix come September.

Betts (+650) Best Bet on Board

Anytime you start handicapping a prop you have to start with a plan. A bettor has to find the player who will get on base via hit or walk and a player who has a high total bases projection along with teammates behind him who will drive said player home.

There is no other player on the board that gives the public a better chance to cash a ticket than Mookie Betts who will lead off for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Betts finished second last season with 117 runs scored but played in 15 fewer games than Aaron Judge.

If you do the math, Judge averaged 0.85 runs per game while Betts came in with 0.82 per game. Behind Betts is why the 6x All-Star is our favorite in this category. Freddie Freeman led the majors with 199 hits and with 612 at-bats. Anthony Rizzo will likely hit behind the betting favorite Judge.

Rizzo had 147 ABs with 95 fewer hits while missing 32 total games. Believe us, injuries play a major role in deciding who will cash this prop and we feel like we can rely on Freeman to stay healthy over 162.

Turner (+1400) is Projected to Have Massive Season

If we think Mookie Betts will score the most this season, Trea Turner will be a solid selection to finish just behind Betts. Turner, who will lead off for the Phillies, is fresh off an incredible World Baseball Classic where he hit .391 in six tournament games.

The 2-time all-star finished five hits behind the MLB leader in hits (194) last season with 304 TB. Behind Turner are WBC Kyle Schwarber (291 TB, 94 RBI), JT Realmuto (139 Hits), and Rhys Hoskins (145 hits). A note to consider is that Hoskins has been carted off the field in Spring Training on Thursday (3/23) with an apparent knee injury.

Something to monitor if Turner is your wager to cash in on our runs prop. RF Nick Castellanos would likely move up behind Realmuto in the line-up.

Freeman (+1000) Worthy “Long-Shot”

Freddie Freeman is the sixth choice on the runs-scored betting board, but with Will Smith, Max Muncy, and JD Martinez behind him in the Dodgers lineup, the hits leader will have a solid betting chance to make up 16 runs on Aaron Judge who scored 133 runs last season.

Judge’s runs scored total in 2022, who isn’t among our choices to cash this prop, was aided by his 62 homers. Freeman did leave the WBC early for Team Canada after tweaking his hamstring. You never know how these sorts of injuries will blossom over the close of the season, but when betting a prop where health is a must, we’d be lying if it wasn’t a concern.

A Few Others to Consider and One to Stay Away From

Ronald Acuna Jr (Braves) +800: Acuna was a strong contender to finish among our top three selections but missed 63 games last year and has averaged just over 100 games played per season over the last two years. Injuries are a massive long-term concern.

Vladimir Guerrero JR (Blue Jays) +1400: Hard to call the eighth choice on the betting board a dark horse, but with the fifth-year pro’s 21st finish in runs scored in 2022 with 90, we think the betting public will place plenty of wagers on other players before getting to Guerrero.

Aaron Judge (Yankees) +500 (Favorite): This isn’t a selection to say that Judge may have a down year but by comparison to what he did last year, it’s fair to expect some steps back. 62 of his runs in 2022 came via the home run. Will he have that same boost this year after signing a massive contract? that remains to be seen.

Behind Judge will be Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Josh Donaldson. If Judge can’t get to that 60 homers mark again this MLB season, I’m not sure we can trust Rizzo, Donaldson, or Stanton to stay healthy enough to get Judge in to score enough to defend his title.

That does it for our MLB run leader odds preview. We’re jumping on Mookie Betts, with Trea Turner worth a second wager. Enjoy the 2023 season.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

• AL East Division Preview: Yankees, Blue Jays Expected to Slug It Out for Division Supremacy
• MLB Hits Leader Odds Preview 2023 Season: Favorites and Dark Horses
• World Baseball Classic Championship Betting Preview: United States Goes After Back-to-Back Titles
• 2023 World Baseball Classic Odds Update And Preview
• MLB Pitchers-Future Bets, Cole Favorite in Two Major Categories